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In The News

Magazine #66 — Where Russia Plants Its Flag

January 15 – January 21, 2024

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Geopolitics

Decline Of The West? We May Find Out For Real In 2024

The West is a spent force, say China, Russia and their global clique, yet it retains plenty of decisive cards including a choice to back Ukraine to the hilt. The year may yet reveal the world’s rising, and ranking, powers.

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In The News Society

A Foreign Eye On America’s Weapon Obsession, From Backyard Guns To Dumb Bombs On Gaza

The French-American writer recalls a trip last Christmas to her father’s native Louisiana, and an invitation for some firing-range fun in the backyard.

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Geopolitics

Iran-Russia Deal Cranks Up Surveillance — But Also Puts Tehran’s Own Secrets At Risk

Iran’s plans to boost security and intelligence collaborations with Russia are fueling fears among Iranians that Russia will soon act as power broker, decision-maker and secret policeman inside their country.

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This Happened

This Happened—December 19: Assassination Of Andrei Karlov

Updated Dec. 19, 2023 at 12:30 p.m. The Russian diplomat Andrei Karlov served as an ambassador to North Korea, and then Turkey. On this day in 2016, he was assassinated while giving a speech in Turkey — the moment captured by an Associated Press photographer who’d been assigned to cover the speech. How was Andrei […]

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine War, Forever? Putin May Decide Never To Negotiate

Now that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has ground to a halt, pressure is growing for Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow. But increasingly, despite his claims to the contrary, it looks like Putin is simply not interested in negotiating, whatever he may claim. In fact, the opposite appears to be the case: he’s betting his future on a long war.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Why The “Orban Question” Runs Far Beyond His Negotiating Tricks

The future of Ukraine may be at stake as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban plays hardball with his European counterparts. But the stakes go beyond aid to the war effort, it’s the very status of Europe that is on the line.

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Geopolitics Green

Longyearbyen Postcard: World’s Northernmost Town Facing Climate Change — And Russia

The melting of the sea ice in the Far North has accelerated in recent years. The Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard has become the focal point of the environmental drama gripping the Arctic as well as the geopolitical tensions it is causing there, with Russia in particular.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Why NATO Should Take Putin’s “Pig” Threats Against Latvia Very Seriously

In the Ukraine war, Russia’s military spending is as high as ever. Now the West is alarmed because the Kremlin leader is indirectly hinting at a possible attack on Latvia, a NATO member. It is a reminder of a growing danger to Europe.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

And If Ukraine’s Fate Was In The Hands Of Republican Senators And Viktor Orban?

In the U.S., Republican senators called on to approve military aid to Kyiv are blackmailing the Biden administration on an unrelated matter. In Europe, French President Macron will be dining with the Hungarian Prime Minister, who has threatened to block aid to Ukraine as well.

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Geopolitics

Putin In The Middle East, A Chilling Reminder Of The Power He Still Holds

Defying an ICC arrest warrant, Russian President Vladimir Putin is on a one-day foray to UAE and Saudi Arabia to display his role in shaping the geopolitical and energy landscape — and to make the world forget about the Ukraine war just a little bit more.

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Israel-Palestine War

Why The U.S. Lost Its Leverage In The Middle East — And May Never Get It Back

In the Israel-Hamas war, Qatar now plays the key role in negotiations, while the United States appears increasingly disengaged. Shifts in the region and beyond require that Washington move quickly or risk ceding influence to China and others for the long term.

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Economy Geopolitics

Wealthy Russians Are Back To Buying Real Estate In Europe — Sanctions Be Damned

After the start of the war in Ukraine, Russian oligarchs and other rich individuals turned to the real estate markets in Dubai and Turkey. Now Russian buyers are back in Europe. Three EU countries in particular are attracting buyers for their controversial “golden visa” program.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

The Great Powers Don’t Want A World War — But We May Get One Anyway

Ever since Hamas launched its attack on October 7, experts have feared that the conflict, alongside the one in Ukraine, could spill over into a large-scale war between the world’s major geopolitical players. Nikolai Kozhanov, associate professor at the Center for Gulf Studies at Qatar University, analyzes how likely this is and who would benefit from such a conflict.

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Russia-Ukraine War

A Profound And Simple Reason That Negotiations Are Not An Option For Ukraine

The escalation of war in the Middle East and the stagnation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive have left many leaders in the West, who once supported Ukraine unequivocally, to look toward ceasefire talks with Russia. For Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza, Piotr Andrusieczko argues that Ukraine simply cannot afford this.

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Russia-Ukraine War

On The Donetsk Frontline, Where Kamikaze Drones Are Everyone’s Weapon-Of-Choice

In Ukraine, kamikaze drones have gradually overtaken artillery as the main threat to soldiers — on both sides of the frontline. Meanwhile, a bitter winter is taking over life in the trenches.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Next Target, Crimea? Why Crossing The Dnipro Could Be The Boost Ukraine Needed

International support for Kyiv is waning and calls for negotiations are growing louder. But Ukraine has now managed to establish a bridgehead on the other side of the Dnipro River. From there, its troops could advance to Crimea — and turn the tide of the war.

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LGBTQ Plus Society

How Russia’s Crackdown On LGBTQ+ Rights Has Spiraled Out Of Control

Some social activists believe that this sudden shift can potentially threaten not just human rights organizations but virtually any Russian citizen.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Three Scenarios Where The U.S., China Or Russia Winds Up Stronger After The Gaza War

Washington, Moscow and Beijing can all, in different ways, emerge stronger from the war in Gaza war, says French geopolitical expert Dominique Moïsi. The U.S. has been more present in the Middle East since Oct. 7 — but so has Russia, while China is keeping relatively quiet.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Putin’s 2024 Reelection Will Be A Weapon In The War In Ukraine — It Could Also Backfire

A report Monday from Reuters tells us what all knew: Vladimir Putin will seek a fifth term in Russia’s March 2024 presidential elections. But he needs a high turnout and overwhelming support to seal the legitimacy of his war in Ukraine.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War special series The Endless War

How The Russia-Hamas Alliance Could Wind Up Undermining Both

Russia is largely discrediting itself as a viable leader in diplomacy after siding so plainly with Hamas.

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Geopolitics

How We May End Up Sliding Into The Real “War To End All Wars”

Considering that our “final war” may be arriving isn’t so far-fetched when states like Iran, Russia and North Korea are courting confrontation and taking “crazy” risks, a little like the European powers of 1914. But let’s proceed with caution.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Should We Read The Middle East And Ukraine As A Single Narrative?

For the future of our world, neither the stakes in Ukraine nor Gaza should be underestimated. But understanding the limits of the comparison is important to trying to find a way out of each, says veteran French political scientist Dominique Moïsi.

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Geopolitics

Who Is Ibrahim Biari, Hamas Mastermind Targeted In Refugee Camp Bombing?

As outrage spreads over the civilian casualties in Tuesday night’s bombing, Israel justifies the strike as necessary to eliminate Hamas leaders, including at least one suspected mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Russia’s Boom In Facial Recognition Cameras To Crack Down On Dissent

Trailing only China in the widespread use across the nation of security cameras equipped with facial recognition technology.

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Economy Russia-Ukraine War

Rebuilding Ukraine: The U.S. Is Already Way Ahead Of Europe

The war is far from over, but on the other side of the Atlantic, preparations are already underway to ensure American businesses access to this promising market. In Europe, no one is making such necessary preparations, worries Jacques Attali.

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Russia-Ukraine War

How Russia Will Capitalize On The New Wave Of Terrorism Set To Hit The West

Western leaders must take a more resolute stance in addressing terrorism and its hybrid forms, and see the connection with the tactics and strategy of Putin’s Russia.

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Russia-Ukraine War

“Like Guerrilla War” — A Soldier’s Dispatch From The Ukrainian Southern Front

Oleksandr Solonko, a military trooper and aerial scout, played an active role in combat operations in Bakhmut and later on the Zaporizhzhia front near Robotyne, where Ukraine is securing its breach of Russian defenses.

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Economy Geopolitics

Oil Dependence: Three Wars, One Lesson

Ukraine, Israel, Azerbaijan: the three conflicts highlight energy vulnerability.

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Economy Russia-Ukraine War

How Russia’s War Economy Has Withstood The Onslaught Of Sanctions

The Russian economy has proven remarkably resilient to Western sanctions, a phenomenon largely driven by Russia’s expanding military-industrial complex and increased trade with India and China. One challenge remains unsolved however: a lack of young working-aged men ready for hire in the country’s industrial and white collar sectors.

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Geopolitics

Mideast War, Day 4: Now Comes Israel’s Ground War On Gaza

The Israeli army has secured its own territory, and is now focused on what all believe is an impending ground assault into Gaza. The ground war now appears more a question of when rather than if.

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Geopolitics

Did Russia Have A Hand In The Hamas Attack?

Russia has both the means and potentially motivation for triggering mayhem in the Middle East, including the benefits of distracting the West from its war in Ukraine.

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Geopolitics

Mideast War, Day 3: Israel Launches “Complete Siege” Of Gaza

Civilians in the crowded Palestinian enclave may be forced to face a long-term cut off of basic necessities, food and water. Is this an alternative to a ground war.

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Geopolitics

Will Israel Strike Iran As Revenge For Hamas Support?

Iran denies direct involvement with the Hamas assault on Israel, even if it has given it its full backing and praise, and has offered support over the years. The specter of Israel striking Iran is driving fears that the war is bound to spread across the region.

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This Happened

This Happened — October 7: The Beginning Of The Bolshevik Revolution

Updated October 7, 2024 at 11:00 a.m. The October Revolution, also known as the Bolshevik Revolution, was a pivotal event in Russian and world history that started on this day in 1917. What was the October Revolution? The October Revolution was a revolution of the Bolshevik Party, led by Vladimir Lenin, which took place in […]

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Geopolitics

How The Chaos In Washington Emboldens Moscow And Beijing

The deep dysfunction of American democracy is bringing smiles (and big ideas) to autocratic regimes around the world, convinced that it is a sign of the West in decline.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Why Russia Is Doomed In Southern Ukraine: Logistics (And History)

The history of war shows that the losing side tend to lose ground as they are cut off from supply lines to replenish troops with weapons, food and material. Independent Russian publication Important Stories reports why this appears to be the dynamic at play right now for Russian troops in southern regions of Ukraine.

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In The News

Ukraine’s Counteroffensive: A Breakthrough Across The “Surovikin Line”

The area around Robotyne, in southeastern Ukraine, has been the centre of a fierce two-month battle. Ukrainian publication Livy Bereg breaks down how Ukrainian forces were able to exploit gaps in Russian defenses and push the counteroffensive forward.

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Geopolitics Society

Why Slovakia’s Robert Fico Is Good For Putin — And Even Better For Orban

One man’s victory in Slovakia may move the tides of European support for Ukraine, and play into an “illiberal temptation” that is spreading across the continent, with Hungary’s prime minister set to cash in on his perennial clash with the EU.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

The Russian Orthodox Church Has A Kremlin Spy Network — And Now It’s Spreading Abroad

The Russian Orthodox Church has long supported Russia’s ongoing war effort in Ukraine. Now, clergy members in other countries are suspected of collaborating with and recruiting for Russian security forces.

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