-Analysis-
PARIS — Make no mistake: military aid to Ukraine is at risk. And to understand why, just take a look at the name of French President Emmanuel Macron’s dinner guest Thursday at the Elysée palace in Paris: Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister, and Europe’s No. 1 troublemaker.
Orban is threatening to veto a new 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine at a European Council meeting next week. He could also block Ukraine’s negotiations to enter the European Union, an important issue that has provided some hope for this war-torn country. These are votes on which the unanimity of the “27” EU member states is required.
But this is not the only obstacle in the path of Western aid: the United States is also immersed in a political psychodrama, of which Ukraine is the victim. A new $60 billion aid package from the Biden administration has stalled in Congress: Republicans are demanding legislation to shut down the border with Mexico to stop immigration.
What does this have to do with Ukraine? Nothing, besides legislative blackmail.
On Tuesday, a meeting in which senior officials were to give a confidential briefing to senators on the situation in Ukraine ended in a shouting match, according to the U.S. press. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was due to speak by video chat at the meeting, had to cancel. Just a year ago, he had received a standing ovation.
Cruel dilemma
Joe Biden laid out the stakes in blunt terms Wednesday: “Republicans in Congress are willing to give Putin the greatest gift he could hope for, and abandon our global leadership, not just Ukraine, but beyond that.”
It’s not yet so dire in Europe, but Viktor Orban is also putting a price on his green light to Ukraine by negotiating other issues. In particular, billions of euros of European money has been blocked by Brussels because of a breach of the rule of law in Hungary. Should we give in on those principles to save Ukraine? A cruel dilemma.
French officials say they’re confident that a compromise will eventually be reached, as has so far been the case among Europeans since Russia’s invasion — perhaps it will even get sealed over the Parisian dinner. Still, the psychodrama is having the worst possible effect on Ukraine.
Bad news
Yes, the uncertainties about U.S. and European aid comes at the worst possible time. The mood in Ukraine is dark, due to the accumulation of bad news. That bad news is coming from the front, where the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed to break through Russian lines, and Kyiv’s army is generally on the defensive. Tensions between President Zelensky and his top military commander, Valerii Zaluzhny, are also weighing on the political climate.
Putin has been banking on Western fatigue from the get-go
Now doubts about the strength of Western support create another source of anxiety, sparking incomprehension and even anger in Ukraine, where people feel they are fighting, and dying, for the sake of a democratic world that risks crumbling. The same incomprehension is felt when Ukrainian truckers are denied access to Poland for simple reasons of market competition.
The length of the war, the high financial cost, the fact that the Middle East has replaced Ukraine in the media for the past two months… all this obviously suits Vladimir Putin, who has been banking on Western fatigue from the get-go. It’s hard to believe that the Americans and Europeans could turn out to agree with him so quickly: the Ukrainian struggle deserves better.
