-Analysis-
PARIS — It’s like a bad TV show where the script repeats itself every season : Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, raises the stakes, announces threats … and then it all ends with a compromise.
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The only problem is, you can never be sure : at this week’s European Summit in Brussels, the stakes have in fact gotten so high that they deserve more than backroom haggling between EU officials and Orban. The issues at stake are aid to Ukraine and the expansion of the European Union, two major issues for the future of the continent.
The French-language website Courrier d’Europe centrale sums up Orban’s position on arrival with a triple “no” : “No arms for Ukraine, no money for Ukraine, no European Union for Ukraine.”
10 billion euros “released”
Hungary’s ruler is the only EU member to keep in regular touch with Vladimir Putin, whom he met again in Beijing in October ; and he continues to import Russian gas, flouting the sanctions.
The sanctions were against Hungary’s drift from the rule of law.
On the eve of the Summit, the Commission made a major concession : it “released” some 10 billion euros of European money earmarked for Hungary which had been “frozen.” These had in fact been sanctions against Hungary’s drift from the rule of law.
The affair caused quite a stir. The leaders of the four main political formations of the European Parliament, apart from the two extremes, signed a joint letter to Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen. They are opposed to the partial lifting of these sanctions, arguing that Hungary has utterly failed its commitment on the independence of the judiciary. The Commission carried on regardless, no doubt believing that the stakes of the Summit were well worth this gesture.
Hard ‘No’
But Viktor Orban is not easily “bought”. On the eve of his arrival in Brussels he reaffirmed his opposition to the 50 billion euros package for Ukraine over three years, and on Thursday declared a hard ‘No‘ to EU accession talks for Kyiv. Indeed, this is a sensitive issue on which Hungary is not so isolated, even if the change of government in Poland this week takes away a key ally on the matter.
Faced with the risk of failure, the delegations have already booked their hotels to play overtime on Saturday, just in case… With American aid to Ukraine also subjected to blackmail by the Republican party, what is at stake in the next few days in Brussels is vital for Ukraine and the other candidate countries.
European leaders are considering how to get around the veto of a single country if unanimity is not possible. If 26 countries want to move forward, bureaucratic ingenuity will find a solution.
Whatever their analysis of the situation in Ukraine, be it military, political, corruption or agricultural competition, there is a fairly broad consensus among European leaders on the need to keep their word to Ukraine. The future of Ukraine is at stake, as is that of Europe itself.
But beyond that, there remains the Orban question, which will become all the more acute next year, as Hungary assumes the rotating presidency of the Union in the second semester of the year. We’ll be hearing more from him in 2024!
