Relations between Egypt and Iran have been growing closer. But the return of Donald Trump to the White House could be a setback for the rapprochement, given that Iran is among his top enemies.
Relations between Egypt and Iran have been growing closer. But the return of Donald Trump to the White House could be a setback for the rapprochement, given that Iran is among his top enemies.
Fearing Europe’s shift to the right and a second Trump term, Tehran has dusted off its reformist credentials — with president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian and veteran diplomat Mohammed Javad Zarif — to show the West it is willing to talk. But this ploy will not work again.
Tehran seems to be paving the way for a moderate to become the country’s next president. But the regime’s goal is not to make life better for Iranians, but to leave him with the daunting task of handling a second Trump administration.
Iran’s regime has selected six candidates for the presidential elections due in late June, and possibly even a winner, just as millions of Iranians may have made their own choice, to no longer vote in a dictatorship.
Under pressure from Arab states and Russia, which calls the shots in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad is tiptoeing away from the Iranian regime, a troublesome ally that has nevertheless spent billions of dollars to help keep him in power.
Awkward political figures will run for the Iranian presidency in the elections planned later this month. The one reformer allowed to run will not be able to grant legitimacy to the regime.
June 3 – June 9, 2024
In spite of the Iranian regime’s inclination to conclude the matter of the president’s recent fatal helicopter crash, murmurs around a possible murder plot or a foreign strike are not going away.
May 27 – June 2, 2024
The death of Iran’s hardline president might create some political terrain for moderates there and stabilize relations with a complacent West and especially the Biden administration, eager to put a lid on the Middle East before November’s presidential elections.
With the passing of President Ebrahim Raisi, some dare hope for a boost in anti Iranian regime movements. Others mourn the death of a martyr or blame Israel. But his succession is for all a high-stake issue.
The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash comes in an already tense context, five weeks after Iran’s confrontation with Israel. The consequences are heavy, both in terms of regional and domestic conflicts.
Iranian authorities are enforcing Islamic dress norms with renewed vigor and the backing of a new law, and insist a “hostile West” is goading Iranian women into living indecent lives.
Many Iranians fear unchecked immigration, mostly by Afghans but also Iraqis, will overwhelm a fragile economy that is weakened by the many qualified employees leaving Iran.
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The recent departure of a top Iranian military intelligence chief, supposedly over security lapses and bad decisions, reveals regime weakness in an area key to its survival: espionage and state intelligence.