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Sources

Trump Rolls Out 'Madman Strategy' For Global Trade War

On a Mercedes assembly line at the Daimler AG factory in Rastatt, Germany
On a Mercedes assembly line at the Daimler AG factory in Rastatt, Germany
Dominique Seux

-Analysis-

PARIS — With his new sweeping round of protectionist tariffs on steel and aluminum, it looks like Donald Trump has decided to extend to the economic field the "madman strategy" he had already applied to the Korean Peninsula. That was the take last week from former CIA Director David Petraeus. Developed by the Nixon-Kissinger tandem during the Vietnam War in the early 1970s, this approach consists of leaving opponents in a state of uncertainty and making them believe that anything is possible, and that nothing is forbidden.

Applied to the trade war, this translates into a tweet from the current American president: "... trade wars are good, and easy to win." In other words, "just you watch what I'm capable of." The White House's swaggering tone, the absence of technical details and the strength of a measure that affects the entire world (Europe, Canada, Japan, Korea, China, etc.) without distinction allow such an interpretation.

This decision has a political significance: It's a message sent to American workers and the steel lobby, which is very much represented in the government. But financially, it makes little, if any, sense. Though it's legitimate to punish countries that have applied their own protectionist measures — like China, which subsidizes its steel exports —, penalizing trade with countries that play by the rules is incomprehensible.

Anything is possible, and nothing is forbidden.

Why do so many rich New Yorkers drive a Mercedes-Benz, while so few Germans buy Chevrolets? That's what Donald Trump once asked, convinced that his question and its supposedly plain common sense would strike a chord among everyday Americans. In that case, the rest of the world could retort that Amazon, Google and Coca-Cola are everywhere. Each country scores points based on their comparative advantages and skills. It's equally clear that U.S. consumers will be the victims of higher prices on their cars or beer.

How can Europe react? Standing there with slumped shoulders is not an option. The American measures will have consequences for European exporters (6 billion euros) and the Old Continent cannot be relegated to the role of "global village idiot" once and for all. We should also capture American imaginations, making them fear countermeasures on flagship products without engaging in a game of tit-for-tat — i.e. jeans, Harley Davidsons or whiskey made in the U.S., as European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and the EU's Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström suggested.

The Old Continent cannot be relegated to the role of "global village idiot".

Beyond that, the most important thing is to close ranks against Donald Trump and his demagoguery. The most worrying is the lever he uses, a 1962 text intended to protect American interests in the middle of the Cold War. At a time when China's leader is giving itself a mandate for life and Vladimir Putin is going in full-scale in Syria, Libya and almost openly influences democratic elections in our countries, dividing the West like Trump does is worse than irresponsible. It's pure blindness.

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Economy

Lex Tusk? How Poland’s Controversial "Russian Influence" Law Will Subvert Democracy

The new “lex Tusk” includes language about companies and their management. But is this likely to be a fair investigation into breaking sanctions on Russia, or a political witch-hunt in the business sphere?

Photo of President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda

Polish President Andrzej Duda

Piotr Miaczynski, Leszek Kostrzewski

-Analysis-

WARSAW — Poland’s new Commission for investigating Russian influence, which President Andrzej Duda signed into law on Monday, will be able to summon representatives of any company for inquiry. It has sparked a major controversy in Polish politics, as political opponents of the government warn that the Commission has been given near absolute power to investigate and punish any citizen, business or organization.

And opposition politicians are expected to be high on the list of would-be suspects, starting with Donald Tusk, who is challenging the ruling PiS government to return to the presidency next fall. For that reason, it has been sardonically dubbed: Lex Tusk.

University of Warsaw law professor Michal Romanowski notes that the interests of any firm can be considered favorable to Russia. “These are instruments which the likes of Putin and Orban would not be ashamed of," Romanowski said.

The law on the Commission for examining Russian influences has "atomic" prerogatives sewn into it. Nine members of the Commission with the rank of secretary of state will be able to summon virtually anyone, with the powers of severe punishment.

Under the new law, these Commissioners will become arbiters of nearly absolute power, and will be able to use the resources of nearly any organ of the state, including the secret services, in order to demand access to every available document. They will be able to prosecute people for acts which were not prohibited at the time they were committed.

Their prerogatives are broader than that of the President or the Prime Minister, wider than those of any court. And there is virtually no oversight over their actions.

Nobody can feel safe. This includes companies, their management, lawyers, journalists, and trade unionists.

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