With Trump’s return to power, Russia is rapidly moving closer to the United States; Putin has even agreed to mediate talks between Washington and Tehran. But can Iran still trust Russia? Or is it, like Ukraine, just another bargaining chip?
Author: Hamed Mohammadi
Hamed Mohammadi is a political and defense correspondent, and has worked for several publications including Roozaneh, Hamdeli and Setareh Sobh. Hamed joined Kayhan London in 2015.
Given Donald Trump’s hardline with Volodymyr Zelensky, the U.S president may be even more draconian with Iran, which seems to have an even worse hand than during Trump’s first term.
Iranian officials have been unnerved by the Assad regime’s collapse, with one top general admitting the country was “defeated very badly” in Syria. A shaky ceasefire in Gaza follows 15 month of war in which Tehran’s proxy Hamas was decimated. Will unrest in the region spill over to Iran, where problems — both foreign and domestic — are piling up for the regime?
Israel’s decimation of Iran’s proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, and now events in Syria, have shown the Tehran regime is far weaker than it had wanted the world and its neighbors to believe. The Supreme Leader is now scrambling to rationalize it all, as the Islamic Republic clings to power.
Israel’s recent strike on central Iran was a warning shot for Tehran, tempered by a desire to close the recent spate of tit-for-tat attacks and by pressure from the U.S. Yet this may have only ended round one of the Iran-Israeli showdown.
The Islamic Republic of Iran wants to destroy Israel and seems willing to obliterate Iran in the process. How do you deal with a regime that sees international chaos as serving divine wishes? Many in Iran see the direct challenge from Israel as the path to their nation’s liberation.
For decades Iran’s leaders have promoted the vision of martyrdom as a precept of the regime, but appear to have carefully weighed how much damage to try to inflict on Israel after its attack against its top military leaders in Syria on April 1. What does this say about the state and stability of the regime?
Western diplomacy shows the West will tolerate the Iranian regime’s repression at home and violent intrigues in the Middle East and beyond, but it might clarify to the public why liberal democracies should want to keep the mullahs in power in Tehran.