-Analysis-
PARIS — Europe’s three heavyweights — Germany, France and the United Kingdom — are meeting on Monday in London, joined by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. For French President Emmanuel Macron, it is his third meeting with the Ukrainian president in three weeks. The goal is to reach an understanding and then coordinate with the United States ahead of a new round of negotiations on Ukraine’s future.
That is the official version. In reality, the Europeans are trying to prevent a break from an American administration that continues to make hostile gestures. The three leaders gathered in London: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Macron, want to avoid a split that would have dramatic consequences for support to Ukraine and for Europe’s defense. They are counting on the less ideologically driven figures in the Trump administration, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to minimize the damage.
Yet the break is there, written in black and white in the National Security Strategy published Friday in Washington. This official document, released periodically, sets the United States’ priorities for the coming years: this year, it is unusually harsh toward Europeans, bluntly stating what we already knew about Donald Trump and the MAGA (Make America Great Again) groups’ contempt for the old continent.
Civilization erasure
The surprise is more in the format than the hostile tone: this administration doesn’t shy away from assuming all the themes of the far right: the threat of “civilizational erasure” under the weight of immigration, the “censorship” of freedom of expression, and “regulatory asphyxiation.” Nor does it mince words in welcoming the rise of “patriotic European parties,” the code name for the far right. From Washington’s vantage point, the future looks like the subjugation of a fragmented Europe.
The strategic document is, in fact, harsher on the United States’ European allies within NATO than on its traditional adversaries, Russia or even China. This is a real historical turning point that was initiated by Trump almost a year ago, which has caught Europe off guard. Hence the frenzy of consultations among Europeans to consider life without American protection.
Don’t poke the bear
Some in Europe have grasped the gravity of the moment but are tempering their reactions to avoid provoking Washington. Last week, when a German newspaper published the transcript of a conversation among European leaders in which Macron warned of an American “betrayal” over Ukraine, the Élysée immediately denied it. France does not say things like this publicly.
Musk called for the EU to be dismantled.
But we are seeing more and more points of friction: the €120 million fine that Brussels imposed on X, Elon Musk’s social network, for breaching European rules, has angered Washington. In a tweet, Elon Musk himself called for the European Union to be dismantled, a move that was immediately endorsed by… Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council!
The split can be slowed, but it is inevitable with an administration that is so radically anti-European. It is important to recognize this, because this marks the beginning of a new chapter in history.