The far-right in France may have inflicted Europe’s worst defeat of a governing party, but it’s gaining ground everywhere.
In Germany, the AfD, the party that even Marine Le Pen considered too radical to sit in the same parliamentary group as her, came in second, beating all three parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition. Yet, it should be noted that the CDU, the classic right-wing party led the polls in Germany.
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Looking at the results this morning, there may well be an optical illusion. The face of the next European Parliament won’t look all that different from the previous one: the two (competing) far-right political families — Identity & Democracy and the European Conservatives and Reformists — gained seats, but have not yet upended the political order, and even adding up their seats wouldn’t make it so.
The far-right gains ground
It should first be noted that the two main political formations of the European Parliament remain the conservative European People’s Party, which includes the German CDU and the French Republicans, followed by the Social Democrats. Their number of seats varies little. Only the liberal group, dominated by the party of French President Emmanuel Macron, has fallen sharply, and hence, French influence will be more limited.
Half a dozen European governments are either led, or supported by far-right or populist parties.
But the optical illusion is that this marginally modified balance, does not accurately represent the real influence of the far-right. The far-right is playing an increasingly serious role by participating in coalitions, and this changes the balance of power within the European Council, where important decisions are taken.
Half a dozen European governments are either led, or supported by far-right or populist parties. The most recent of these is the Netherlands party of Gert Wilders, although the Dutch Left-Green alliance outperformed him in the European elections. Negotiations are due to start this week for the so-called “top jobs,” the key positions in the European Union (Presidencies of the Commission, Council and Parliament). A first summit of the 27 is due to set the tone on June 17, to make a decision at the end of the month.
Uncertain future
It was floated that Ursula von der Leyen, the current President of the Commission, would be looking right for a new governing coalition, specifically to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — for an unprecedented right and far-right EU coalition.
Bad politicians are elected by good citizens who stayed at home.
It’s not certain that such a scenario is possible at this stage. But even if the incumbent Conservative-Social Democrat-Liberal majority is re-elected, which is a strong possibility, the weight of far-right-influenced governments will complicate Europe’s progress. While we wait for the snap French legislative elections that Macron called after his party’s dismal showing.
Paradoxically, Poland, which was in the hands of the populists until last year, voted the other way around, for the center-right. Prime Minister Donald Tusk commented briefly on X (formerly know as Twitter) that “bad politicians are elected by good citizens who stayed at home.” A thought-provoking comment, considering that half of all voters abstained in this weekend’s election.
