-Analysis-
PARIS – The crazy week we’ve just experienced — thanks to, or because of, Donald Trump — is full of lessons.
The first lesson is obvious: the 47th president of the United States is not invincible. He may puff out his chest, boast about being the master of the “art of the deal,” and — as he so eloquently put it the day before his climbdown — claim that the whole world is “kissing his…” (we’ll spare you the rest). But he was ultimately forced to back down.
The drop in the markets — and more importantly, the rise in interest rates on U.S. debt, particularly Treasury bonds held by China and Japan — finally broke through his stubbornness.
Only the most die-hard Trump loyalists are likely to buy into the version where he supposedly planned everything — even the full-on retreat — from the start.
But make no mistake: the world took note of the lesson. For nearly three months, it had seemed like an unstoppable steamroller was in motion. That illusion has now been shattered.
All the more telling is that resistance is starting to build within the United States as well: the first protests have emerged; tensions are flaring in the president’s inner circle, with Elon Musk and trade adviser Peter Navarro trading barbs; and Republicans are growing uneasy, fearing what Texas Sen. Ted Cruz called a potential “bloodbath” in next year’s midterm elections.
In short, Trump is starting to look more like a “paper tiger,” as Mao might have said.
China standoff is perilous
If you put yourself for a moment in the shoes of Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, your belief that Trump is out to get you is only reinforced by the fact that the U.S. president backed down on the tariffs with everyone — except China. Indeed, he doubled down on Chinese exports to the United States, which now face tariffs reaching 125%. That’s massive, especially considering that those exports totaled $439 billion last year.
Trump keeps repeating that China will back down and agree to negotiate. But the fact that China is now the only one left makes a Chinese capitulation unlikely — if not impossible. If negotiations are to happen, they can’t come at the cost of humiliating China. On Friday, Beijing again raised tariffs on the U.S. from 84% to 125%, and Xi made his first public comments on the trade war, saying China is “not afraid.”
Xi Jinping’s status as the leader of the world’s second-largest power — and a direct rival to the United States — is on the line. That’s what makes this escalation so dangerous: at the end of this path lies the real possibility of war, even if no one wants it.
An end to American soft power?
The third and most significant lesson from what just happened — and more broadly from these three months of Donald Trump’s leadership — is the sharp decline in trust in the United States.
These three months will leave lasting marks, no matter what happens from here on.
Trump has destroyed, in record time, decades of American “soft power” — that gentle influence that made people love America for what it was, even as they criticized it for what it did. Today, polls around the world reflect a growing distrust that, beyond Trump’s polarizing personality, tarnishes the United States itself, guilty of electing an irresponsible leader.
These three months that shook the world will leave lasting marks, no matter what happens from here on. Distrust has taken root for the long term: from Europe to Taiwan, Brazil to Canada, people are learning to survive without the United States, even while still avoiding a sharp break. Donald Trump has changed the world, but not in the way he intended.
