-Analysis-
PARIS – No surprise here: Donald Trump’s first foreign guest at the White House since retaking office is none other than Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli Prime Minister arrives in Washington at a pivotal moment: negotiations for the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement — and with it, the continued release of hostages and prisoners — are set to begin Monday.
Netanyahu had hoped to delay the talks until after his meeting with Trump, but the Americans insisted on sticking to the schedule.
This coincidence indicates a breach that suggests an underlying friction in the U.S-Israeli relationship. Of course, Donald Trump is a strong supporter of Israel and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio had gone as far as to say that this administration will be “the most pro-Israel in history.”
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But Trump is also, as he proves daily, a president who follows his own instincts, operates transactionally, and doesn’t hesitate to challenge friends or allies. As a result, his agenda and that of the Israeli prime minister will not always align.
Gaza ceasefire, second phase
The second phase of the Gaza agreement offers a telling example: the families of the remaining hostages still in the hands of Hamas fear that Netanyahu may not want to enter the second phase once the approximately 30 hostages from the first stage are released.
His temptation to restart the war to prevent Hamas from solidifying its rule is very strong.
This is because the second phase would conclude with a permanent cessation of hostilities — and Netanyahu, along with most Israelis, was horrified to witness Hamas emerging from the tunnels, still armed and still in control, during the televised handovers of hostages over the past few weeks.
Netanyahu had declared that the elimination of Hamas was the goal of the war in Gaza, which he clearly hasn’t achieved even if several of its top leaders have been killed. His temptation to restart the war to prevent Hamas from solidifying its rule is very strong.
Trump, on the other hand, wants this war to end because he has a more ambitious plan in mind: he is determined to broker an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which is impossible as long as bloodshed in Gaza continues. Trump wants to build on the Abraham Accords he initiated during his first term, with Saudi Arabia, now the key country in the Arab world.
Iran question
Donald Trump has already shown that he has the ability to influence Netanyahu’s decisions. His envoy, Steve Witkoff, a real estate entrepreneur with no prior ties to the region, exerted pressure on the Israeli Prime Minister to sign the ceasefire agreement last month.
Tuesday’s meeting will also be crucial for Iran: Trump is tempted to negotiate with Tehran on the nuclear issue, as Iran has sent signals in that direction. Meanwhile, Netanyahu favors a military solution.
In Jerusalem, billboards celebrated Trump’s election as a victory of a friend. But he’s a somewhat peculiar friend, especially when he proposes expelling the two million Palestinians from Gaza, a move that embarrasses everyone except the Israeli far right.
With an unpredictable and transactional man in the White House, neither ideological nor sentimental ties will necessarily hold sway. Benjamin Netanyahu may find out on this trip in Washington whether Donald Trump will align with his personal agenda. The future question of peace or war largely depends on what the two men say to each other in the coming hours.
