-Analysis-
PARIS — One by one, the time bombs planted during decades of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship are exploding, endangering Syria’s democratic transition. This time, it is the Druze community that is under threat, just weeks after the massacres that targeted the Alawite minority from which the Assad clan hailed.
As is often the case in the Middle East, domestic tensions are compounded by regional dynamics. In this case, Israel has positioned itself as a defender of Syria’s Druze population, escalating its military operations on Syrian territory and further intensifying an already volatile situation.
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The latest tension started on Monday with the circulation of an alleged audio recording of a Druze religious leader, which was deemed blasphemous toward the Prophet Mohammed. The Druze, an offshoot of Shia Islam, are considered an esoteric sect by many hardline Sunnis.
The recording triggered violent clashes between armed Druze and Sunni groups in southern Damascus. Within 48 hours, more than 100 people were killed, despite calls for de-escalation. Druze leaders denounced the recording as a fabrication, aimed at provoking precisely this kind of confrontation.
Rekindling old fears
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in early December has revived longstanding fears, among Syria’s religious minorities, of retaliation by the Sunni majority. Assad had long exploited these fears to shore up his power, particularly during the civil war, in the face of jihadist groups.
The interim government is attempting to provide reassurance while fostering a sense of national unity.
Those fears have only intensified with the rise to power of former jihadists. Interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda member, has sought to convince both Syria’s minorities and the international community that he is pursuing a pragmatic policy of reconciliation. But he does not wield full control, and extremist factions (made up of both Syrian and foreign jihadists) are pushing for a more radical agenda.
With the Druze, Alawites, Christians, and Kurds, the interim government is attempting to provide reassurance while fostering a sense of national unity.
One of its key goals is the creation of a unified national army — a task that remains immensely challenging.
Israel as protector of the Druze?
Further complicating matters is Israel’s growing presence in Syria since Assad’s fall. The Israeli army has taken new positions within Syria and its air force has destroyed Syrian military equipment and installations.
Pointing to the existence of a Druze minority within its own population — many of whom serve in the Israeli security forces, unlike the country’s Palestinian citizens — Israel has projected itself as a protector of Syria’s Druze. Israeli warplanes have bombed a Sunni armed group accused of planning an attack on Druze communities south of the capital, and struck again Friday morning near the presidential palace in Damascus.
Syria risks falling back into a deadly spiral of violence.
A prominent Syrian Druze leader, Sheikh Hikmat al-Hajri, condemned what he described Thursday as a “genocidal campaign” and called for the “immediate intervention by international forces” to protect the Druze.
The government in Damascus accused him of playing with fire, warning that the only international force likely to intervene would be Israel.
This surge in violence targeting the Druze, coming just weeks after the bloodshed against the Alawites, highlights one of the greatest challenges facing Syria’s new leadership. If it fails to restore order and protect its minority populations, the country risks falling back into a deadly spiral of violence. That would be a truly tragic outcome.
