-Analysis-
PARIS — Russian President Vladimir Putin has rarely traveled abroad since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him in 2023. He only visits “safe” countries, such as China and some in Central Asia. His visit this week to India is obviously attracting a lot of attention, and speaks volumes about the world’s changing landscape.
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“Delighted to welcome my friend, President Putin, to India,” tweeted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday, later giving the Russian visitor a warm welcome as he stepped off the plane. Every word, every gesture, has to be calculated in this convoluted context.
Modi thought he had the world’s best relationship with Donald Trump, but was surprised to find himself penalized by the U.S. president because of India’s imports of Russian oil. Since then, New Delhi has virtually stopped buying Russian hydrocarbons, but has made a point of signaling its diplomatic autonomy by inviting Putin for a visit anyway.
India’s mult-alignment
The explanation for this has to do with India’s position: multi-alignment, meaning that India remains committed to its historic alliance with Moscow, while diversifying its arms purchases with the U.S. and France, and recently siding with China’s leader, Xi Jinping.
This multi-alignment is in keeping with the times. The order that emerged from World War II is collapsing, giving rise to new centers of power. The two superpowers, the United States and China, are rivals and have all the attributes of strength: military, technology and economy.
Russia is no longer quite at that level, as it is embroiled in its war in Ukraine and largely dependent on China economically. But it has revived its imperial ambitions.
Europe needs a world that abides by laws.
The rest of the world is trying to find its place. During a visit to China, French President Emmanuel Macron advocated a renewal of multilateralism, which he wants Beijing to be part of.
What China wants
It is clear that this would be in Europe’s interest, as it finds itself weakened in the global balance of power and still too dependent on the United States due to its failure to make the shift to strategic autonomy and economic transformation in time. Europe needs a world that abides by laws.
So what does China want in this context? Xi Jinping wants to project an image of both power and calm amid the chaos of American politics. He’s not saying ‘No’ to France’s advances, which are aimed at organizing an event to rebuild the international order around next year’s G7 summit in Evian. But he also has his own agenda, which is that of Chinese power.
The conditions are still far from being in place. First, because the war in Ukraine is ongoing and has become the point where all the current geopolitical tensions collide. Once again, the U.S. attempts at negotiation, which cater to Russia’s wishes, have run up against Putin’s maximalist approach. The negotiations are at a standstill, and one could add… as expected!
The world is going to have to choose between two options: a return to the 19th century and the balance of power between nations; or a new multilateralism like the one France is proposing, but which doesn’t yet carry much weight. Putin in India, Macron in China, Trump in China in a few months’ time… we’re witnessing the beginning of a world in transition.
