Ukraine used last month’s World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos to convene a meeting of national security advisers to advance its peace efforts to end the two-year war with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has laid down principles for a lasting and just peace in Ukraine.
Much attention has been focused on the role of the Global South in these discussions. As has been made clear repeatedly, Ukraine remains committed to reclaiming all territory taken by Russia, and the Global South may not share the same perspective on this condition.
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These diplomatic discussions once again underscore the paramount importance of the assertion “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” adopted by Ukraine’s allies and partners when addressing issues related to negotiations to end the war. The phrase goes beyond mere politeness, emphasizing that Ukraine itself will not permit decisions about it to be made without its active involvement.
This situation marks a departure from traditional approaches seen on the great geopolitical chessboard, where major players often dominated, and the positions of others could be overlooked. The world is at a crossroads, with the fate of development and progress or a return to archaic conservatism and authoritarianism being significantly influenced by events unfolding on Ukrainian soil, rich with both opportunities and challenges.
Ukraine as symbol
Ukraine is emerging as a symbol of these global changes, underscoring the necessity for international players to consider its position in crucial spheres of interest. The understanding and efforts of Ukraine’s allies to adapt to these new circumstances deserve acknowledgment.
These circumstances highlight the emergence of Ukrainian subjectivity, a relatively new but potent manifestation aligning with the global trend of transformative changes sweeping across the world.
The era of a binary power structure determining the trajectories of entire continents has passed.
One significant sign of historical shifts is the initiation of the restructuring of the global security system, involving the dismantling of outdated mechanisms and the creation of new ones. The era of a binary power structure determining the trajectories of entire continents has passed, and attempts to revert to such a past are futile.
Great powers
While the United States remains the strongest global player, China’s influence is increasingly palpable in the competition for world leadership. Interestingly, the progress of countries, including China, owes much to the contributions of the West, encompassing developments in technology, finance and innovation.
Still, China’s current prospects appear somewhat uncertain due to escalating tensions with the U.S. and Europe, limited access to Western technologies, and internal economic and demographic challenges.
We are witnessing the strengthening of the Indian subcontinent and the Latin American macroregion, as they bolster their economic prowess, with demographic growth rates serving as the primary drivers of their advancement. Looking ahead to 2040, the southern part of the African continent is poised to become a highly promising hub for global production transfer and one of the largest consumer markets, particularly in terms of the burgeoning working youth population.
It would be imprudent to disregard “good old” Europe, so often forecast to decline over the centuries. Despite appearing to have lost some dynamism, the European Union has reluctantly embarked on a journey to revitalize all essential systems, ranging from values to military capabilities, following a jolt that arrived from Putin and his inner circle.
Set aside predictions
The Arctic has emerged as the epicenter of the global struggle for resources, where the interests and positioning of Canada and the economically potent Scandinavian countries cannot be overlooked due to their size.
Meanwhile, Germany is undergoing a visible transformation and, in conjunction with France, is making a robust bid for leadership within Europe. Notably, discussions about the necessity for the European Union to establish its unified military force carry significant symbolic weight in this context.
Simultaneously, Ukraine is actively developing strategies for establishing its own security alliances and associations. Potential participants include Ukraine’s battle-proven immediate neighbors, as well as the U.S. and Britain, with this list continuously expanding.
Ukraine altered the dynamics of the geopolitical chessboard.
The global landscape is undergoing profound changes, with new centers of power emerging and unheard voices influencing decisions. Vibrations originating at one point on the globe rapidly extend to its farthest corners due to the transformative effects of globalization and information connectivity. Ukraine stands out as a striking example and symbolizes the significant shifts in the global balance of power and influence.
Beginning Feb. 24, 2022, Ukraine altered the dynamics of the geopolitical chessboard, disrupting not only Russia’s plans but also the plans of other great powers. Therefore, it is advisable to set aside predictions, doomsday scenarios, and approaches based on realpolitik principles. The assurance is that the future will unfold differently, and positive outcomes are anticipated.
