By Striking Inside Qatar, Israel Just Overplayed Its Hand

-Analysis-

PARIS — The shockwaves from the Israeli attack on Qatar continue to reverberate throughout the Middle East and beyond. So much so that one might wonder whether Israel has gone too far, driven by a boldness and impunity that have served it well. Until now.

Arab countries will meet at a summit in Doha on Sunday to discuss the consequences of Tuesday’s Israeli raid, which targeted Hamas political leaders in a residential neighborhood of the Qatari capital.

It is not the fact that the Palestinian militant group is being targeted that upsets Arab leaders, who hold no particular fondness for Hamas — but the fact that Israel dared to carry out a raid in the heart of one of the Gulf emirates, a country that is also home to the largest U.S. military base in the region.

A sign of growing unease: Mohamed bin Zayed, the President of the United Arab Emirates and Emir of Abu Dhabi, rushed to Doha, where Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is also expected to arrive. Not so long ago, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia were blockading Qatar and at war with the Qatari ruling family, the Al Thani.

The Gulf countries have remained relatively quiet since October 7, 2023, even when Israel’s retaliation for the massacre committed by Hamas turned into collective punishment. The United Arab Emirates, which established diplomatic relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords in 2020, did not raise questions; Saudi Arabia has continued to express its willingness to take the step of recognizing the Jewish state; and Qatar has served as a mediator between Israel, the United States, and Hamas on the fate of hostages and a possible ceasefire, repeatedly welcoming the head of Israel’s Mossad to Doha.

But recently, the extent of Israel’s military superiority and the hubris that seems to be driving the leaders of the Jewish state have been causing concern among these three major Gulf states. The Emirates recently made it known that an annexation of the Israeli-occupied West Bank would be a “red line” in their eyes, and Saudi Arabia has joined forces with France to organize the Two-State Solution Conference, which is slated for the coming days at the United Nations headquarters. This is the context in which the Doha raid took place.

U.S. pressure, regional fallout

The United States plays a central role in this whole dynamic. As demonstrated by Donald Trump’s tour immediately after his election, the U.S. is a close ally of Israel, but also of the Gulf countries. The raid on Doha, like the plan to expel Palestinians from Gaza, which seems to be the ultimate goal of the current offensive, has disrupted this delicate balance.

Trump is in an awkward position.

Trump found himself in an awkward position, claiming he had not been informed in advance, which some sources dispute. According to the U.S. press, he had a stormy telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The reaction from the Gulf countries shows that they are concerned about Israeli authority going beyond what they had previously anticipated, and what suited them in an unstable region. If Israel allows itself to make incursions into their countries without concern for the consequences, particularly in terms of their pro-Palestinian public opinion, it is their power that is at stake.

This all explains the diplomatic mobilization around Qatar, the first crack in the regional pecking order that had seemed to be inexorably taking shape.