-Analysis-
ROME — Seventeen and 50. These are the two numbers Donald Trump is betting on to convince Vladimir Putin: 17 Patriot aircraft systems headed to Ukraine to protect against Russian airstrikes, and 50 days before slapping 100% tariffs on trade with Moscow and its partners.
Yes, 100 is another key number. Because in Washington’s original plans (repeatedly outlined by the author of the new sanctions bill, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham) the level of tariffs that would be “deadly” to Russia’s economy were supposed to go as high as 500%. Thus the American president ultimately considered such a high number unnecessary, and the Moscow Stock Exchange responded to his 100% threats with a sharp rise in share prices, peaking at a 3.04% gain, as markets were clearly bracing for something far worse.
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Of course, all these numbers need to be taken with caution, and not just because Trump is known for his loose grasp on figures. There’s still plenty of uncertainty around the Patriots: if he meant 17 full systems, that would be an enormous and nearly impossible figure. Ukraine currently has six. So most likely, the 17 refers to launch batteries, which would mean three systems with five to six batteries each. These are crucial for intercepting Russian missiles, but still not enough to form an impenetrable shield.
Wider window
Meanwhile, a tweet from White House special envoy Keith Kellogg, who arrived in Kyiv on Monday, suggests that “Trump’s historic deal with NATO” is still under negotiation, at least when it comes to the operational details. That includes the what (CNN reports it may involve air-to-air missiles for F-16s and other more advanced weapons), the how, the how much (figures around $10 billion are being mentioned), and above all … the when.
That’s where the other number comes into play: the 50-day window Trump gave Putin to change course, following the “two weeks” he had offered him repeatedly before. In practical terms, the U.S. will allow the Russian army to continue taking full advantage of the summer months to press ahead with the offensive it launched in May, an effort the Kremlin is pouring all its resources into.
The Economist magazine estimates that 31,000 Russian soldiers have died in the last two months. In September, the situation will be reassessed, and negotiations for a truce may resume. Which is why, according to the U.S. news website Axios, Putin confessed to Trump during a phone call ten days ago that his goal now is to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible before the clock runs out.
That is, if the tariffs actually go into effect and are aimed not just at Moscow — which does only $3.5 billion worth of trade with the U.S., mostly in strategic goods like titanium and uranium — but more importantly, at the countries that buy Russian oil and gas and supply it with what it needs, from vegetables to drone components. The main targets are India, Turkey, and especially China.
Decisive months
Trump has already tried massive tariffs with Beijing, with little to show for it. That’s likely why the Moscow Stock Exchange bounced back: 100% tariffs may turn out to be too little, and a 50-day delay in wartime can end up meaning never.
The American president has finally grasped that the real issue in this war is the man who started it.
The next few months will therefore be decisive. That may also explain why Volodymyr Zelensky announced a “reboot” of his government on Monday. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal will be replaced by his deputy, Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko, who will take over the Ministry of Defense, while the current Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov, will be appointed ambassador to Washington. This reshuffle seems to signal the full integration of the war effort into Ukraine’s economy, especially in light of the Rome reconstruction conference and the numerous joint military production initiatives with Western firms.
Kyiv’s is a long-term strategy that shows how, while Trump is offering Putin one last chance, no one is really counting on a swift resolution anymore.
Not Biden’s war anymore
And yet, some Ukrainians note that Trump’s actions should not be taken lightly. Political scientist Viktor Andrusiv, who posted a picture of a whiskey bottle on social media, has been insisting for months that “sooner or later Donald Trump would face reality.”
Judging by his statements Monday — about his “disappointment” with Putin, who, after “very good conversations,” still launched missiles at Kyiv: the American president has finally grasped that the real issue in this war is the man who started it. And that he can’t simply walk away from it by calling it “Biden’s war.”
It took a lot to finally bring Trump to this U-turn: months of cozying up to Putin and humiliating Zelensky. Six months of escalation, thousands of Ukrainian lives, and a major miscalculation by the Russian leader.
