-Analysis-
TURIN — Demography in Russia no longer exists. Or rather, it no longer appears in the reports on the socio-economic situation that the country’s Federal Service for State Statistics (Rosstat) publishes each month. The May report contains no figures relating to the Russian population: no births, no deaths, no marriages or divorces. In the previous edition, the demographic data were still included but no longer broken down by region. Now, even the overall numbers have been withheld.
“We have been completely deprived of information about the population of our country,” analysts from the MMI think tank told The Moscow Times, an independent English-language and Russian-language online newspaper.
The Soviet experience of 1937 — when then-Prime Minister Joseph Stalin suppressed the census that revealed how many people his regime had killed and had its authors executed — reminds us that when a statistic disappears, it is because it reveals a truth the Kremlin would rather not face. In recent years, the Russian government had already classified many forms of data deemed “sensitive,” from battlefield losses to military spending. More than a third of the items in the state budget approved by the Duma are not specified in detail.
Alarming data
State secrecy now also covers economic indicators, including the size of gold reserves and the names and salaries of senior managers at major state-owned companies, officially to shield them from Western sanctions. But the removal of birth and death figures points to one thing: The demographic gap opened by the war is turning into an abyss. The 1 million soldiers who, according to independent sources, have been killed, maimed, captured, gone missing or deserted, is finally beginning to show up in the statistics.
Officially, according to the most recent data available from Rosstat, Russia’s population stood at 146.1 million on April 1. In the first quarter of 2025, there were 289,000 births and 472,000 deaths, resulting in a demographic decline of 183,000. This was partially offset by 122,000 immigrants.
The mortality rate is where the data becomes especially alarming.
It is a negative trend that has persisted for decades, and the government had already predicted that the Russian population would shrink to 138.8 million over the next 20 years. The birth rate continues to hit historic lows each month, with the war driving a surge in contraceptive sales, but the mortality rate is where the data becomes especially alarming.
Even the official statistics agency has recorded a drop in life expectancy in 2024 to 72.84 years, down seven months in just one year. The mortality data, previously broken down by cause, age group and region, have also been censored. It is not hard to guess why. Demographer Aleksey Raksha told The Moscow Times that war deaths are reflected in Rosstat data with a 12 to 18 month delay, so the wave of casualties from last year’s major Russian offensive would only now begin to appear in the numbers.
An impossible goal
The question remains whether Rosstat’s censorship is intended to keep the general public in the dark or to shield one very specific data enthusiast in Moscow: Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has tasked the government with halting population decline and increasing life expectancy to 78 years.
That goal was originally set for 2024, but has since been pushed back to 2030. It is an ambitious target, even under normal circumstances. Russia’s demographic patterns are already similar to those of Europe, and it becomes an impossible goal if men are sent to die at the front and healthcare spending is cut.
Russia is the only country in the world actively encouraging underage pregnancies.
To encourage childbirth, some regions have even introduced financial incentives for university and high school students who become pregnant. Health Minister Mikhail Murashko claims that the common Russian practice of postponing pregnancy to complete one’s education is “destructive,” and that girls should be taught from school age that having children must come first.
Despite being the only country in the world actively encouraging underage pregnancies instead of preventing them, Putin still does not have enough soldiers. Just yesterday, a new law was passed allowing even stateless people to enlist in the Russian armed forces.