-Analysis-
BOGOTÁ — Donald Trump‘s return to the White House will undoubtedly bring about a transformation in geopolitics and the world economy. We are seeing an ideological break with the role the United States had adopted since the World War II. And the possible change is captured the president-elect’s “America First” catchphrase — and no, it’s not just a campaign slogan.
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Trump is saying “we’re going to stop thinking about what is happening in the world, and start thinking about ourselves.” That means Americans disconnecting from one of the country’s basic foreign policy pillars: the expansion of democracy in the world, and the rule of law and human rights.
Time for liberal ideals as a factor in foreign policy is over, and the country will move toward a pragmatic position with a businesslike vision rather than political perspective. This means more profit-and-loss and less good and evil. The aim is to improve the conditions of “America,” meaning a revolution in its relations with the world, its partners and dissenters.
Trump means business
Everything is negotiable; that is Trump’s way of life. He’s a businessman, not a politician. On that basis, we will see how he deals with the world’s major conflicts, like the wars in Ukraine or Gaza.
Using the principle of “give and take” as a starting point, how will Trump approach negotiations with Russia, if the principles of democracy in Ukraine and human rights are no longer in the equation? Ending the war in Ukraine, as Trump has announced, will have a very big impact on Europe. The U.S. priority will be to stop spending money in that war. That will transfer responsibility for Ukraine to Europe.
The world will have to adapt to this new reality.
Trump’s main challenge is China, and containing its expansionism. In his view, China’s economic growth over the past 30 years has destroyed American industry and jobs. So to put America first, China must be stopped.
What will he do with Venezuela? If U.S. Senator from Florida Marco Rubio becomes secretary of state, he will likely devote himself to removing President Nicolás Maduro from power. But from a business perspective, what bothers Trump is not the absence of democracy or rights violations in Venezuela, but migrants coming from the country into the United States. If Maduro agrees to take back Venezuelan migrants and allows U.S. firms return to the country for business, Trump might keep quiet.
Tariffs are key
In terms of world economics, we are seeing a total break. The world’s most important country, which has led the drive to liberalize, deregulate, globalize and open economies, is suddenly becoming nationalistic and protectionist. The world will have to adapt to this new reality.
The key word for Trump is tariffs. He’s already mentioned it in relation to Mexico, Canada and China. Access to the world’s leading market has a price, and he knows it. He may demand many things in return, like telling Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to stop the flow of migrants or face a 25% tariffs on its exports to the United States. He’ll be saying similar things to other countries.
So we’re at the end of cycle of the United States’ global position and the way it related to the world over 80 years. Europeans will be the most affected, not just in terms of trade with their chief partner, but in defense. The United States will no longer accompany them in their joint and global crusade for democracy. Americans — and everybody else — can expect difficult days ahead.
