Why The Fate Of Venezuela’s Democracy Should Matter To You

-OpEd-

CARACAS — The answer to the question of whether Venezuela is an important participant in the international geopolitical scene depends on when you’re asking. There are periods when analysts agree that its importance is significant (in these analyses, the variable of the country’s oil and gas production or reserves is inevitably present).

These highs are followed by periods where the opposite view prevails: that our Venezuela does not have the importance it could (or should) have for the United States, Europe, and other democratic nations, because they are all very focused either on their respective domestic problems or on conflicts in other regions of the planet.

The Venezuelan crisis, explained

The first consideration I dare to suggest is the following: Venezuela’s situation — the human rights violations that occur every day; the destruction of the institution of democracy; the massive impoverishment of society; the forced migration of almost eight million Venezuelans; the establishment of a structure of corruption as the nuclear component of power — is permanently relevant to countless nations.

Among other good reasons, this is due to the way in which, for example, Venezuelan migration has impacted public policies in more than 14 Latin American countries, as well as in the United States, Canada, Spain, and other countries within continental Europe.

Venezuela constitutes a fundamental interest.

Other factors of enormous importance are corruption — the flow of illegal Venezuelan money occupies financial entities across the entire globe — or the even more alarming situation of a regime that openly participates as a protector, ally, or partner in drug trafficking operations. Or, as it has recently started to transpire, high-ranking officers within the police and military trafficking weapons seized from criminals in Venezuelan territory, which now appear in crimes committed in Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia.

Totalitarian influences

But it has not been necessary for all these expressions of the Venezuelan crisis to become concrete problems for other countries, for attention to Venezuela to awaken and remain so, since 1999. As soon as Hugo Chávez Frías came into power, he began to twist Venezuelan foreign policy toward alliances with countries that make up the axis of evil — Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, and Nicaragua, among others. Therefore, for these countries’ political strategies, the country acquired the title of a region of strategic interest. By this, I mean that in our polarized world, Venezuela constitutes a fundamental interest.

If for China, Russia, and Iran, the Venezuelan territory is an appetizing region because it can serve as an operations platform for their expansionist interests, Western democracies cannot remain indifferent or turn a blind eye due to the danger this represents.

Therefore, who does Venezuela really matter to? Answer: to everyone. To Tyrians and Trojans. To Putin and Biden. To the Chinese dictatorship and the European community. Venezuela matters to both defenders and enemies of freedom.

Of course: it is indisputable that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza after the Hamas attacks against Israel on Oct. 7 has forced the nations allied to Venezuelan democrats to concentrate their efforts on military confrontations. Ukraine and Gaza are priority and decisive realities. But the core issue is that this does not remove Venezuela from the agenda of topics that require constant monitoring. Fundamentally, it is terrible to acknowledge that in Venezuela an exceptional struggle is taking place by the majority of the population to prevent the Venezuelan nation from being swallowed by the voracity and totalitarian methods of China, Russia, and Iran.

Regional balance is at stake

It is within this framework that we arrive at this crucial moment, a few weeks before the presidential elections. Those who have been sending warnings are not wrong: what is at stake is not only the electoral process, nor what the vote outcomes will be — polls and street demonstrations have clearly shown that the people are in favur of the opposition. What matters is how the government will react to what it knows it will happen: that it has been defeated.

At stake is the political impact that a blow from Maduro could have on the credibility of other presidents.

Thus, the question of, “Who should Venezuela matter to?” acquires new dimensions. For its neighboring countries, particularly Brazil and Colombia, the Venezuelan issue becomes prominent once again, because if electoral fraud is committed, it will produce a new wave of forced migration, very likely of proportions unknown until now: no less than 300,000 people migrating to Brazil within a period of three months; no less than one and a half million compatriots crossing the borders into Colombia, either intending to stay in the country or continue to Ecuador or Peru. It would lead to a collapse of dimensions unknown until now, of unprecedented humanitarian consequences.

Consequently, the fate of Venezuela is a matter of concern for much of the planet.

At stake, among many other things, are Biden’s and the Democratic Party’s policies tied to the Barbados Agreement, whether or not he is the presidential candidate to face Donald Trump.

At stake is the political impact that a blow from President Nicolás Maduro could have on the credibility of presidents Gabriel Boric of Chile, Gustavo Petro of Colombia, and Lula of Brazil regarding the democratic viability of the left.

And, of course, at stake is the viability of the Venezuelan nation, which would suffer a punishment that would devastate the nation and its economy, raising real poverty indicators to previously unknown levels, with a costly impact on the entire region.