Dogged self-regard is a typical trait of political leaders, most of whom are still men. They will generally interpret flexibility as weakness, with a simple, if rickety logic: That’s how I think and nothing can change it. Well, unless elections give you a big whack in the face!
Now if you were looking for a different attitude, you’d find it next-door in Venezuela, in the opposition leader María Corina Machado. She draws crowds wherever she goes across that country and has changed her opinion many times, which was always the right thing to do.
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While she is no shrinking violet, clearly Machado’s method is to carefully take stock of the situation and its details, before striking out. It is no coincidence that Edmundo González Urrutia, the candidate of the opposition alliance out to put the socialist President Nicolás Maduro out of office, should be ahead in the polls when he was unknown just two months ago. Certainly, he is someone in his own right. But if González has become the face of the opposition Table of Democratic Unity (MUD), it is firstly because of Maduro’s underhand maneuverings against it, and secondly, Machado’s flexible response.
An uncertain future
Machado understood a while back that the problem in Venezuela is, first and foremost, Maduro, a president who refuses to budge. She seems particularly deft at anticipating his shenanigans — as he wages shoddy ‘lawfare” against the opposition — and may this time have caught him, as it were, with his pants down.
A recognized electoral loss would reduce, but not remove, the regime’s obstructive tools and pretexts.
Still, do not expect Maduro to be so easily cowed, and anything is possible between now and July 28, the date set for the general elections. But leaving the last trick up his sleeve to the last minute may not be practical, as an electoral cancellation would leave the opposition with options. There is a difference between fighting a dictatorial outfit that manages to “win” a more or less acceptable election, and one that goes hell for leather opting for some massive, clumsy piece of fraud.
Even after voting, concerns would remain as the next president does not enter office until January 2025. A recognized electoral loss would reduce, but not remove, the regime’s obstructive tools and pretexts. Its control of institutions like parliament and the courts allows it in principle to block González Urrutia from taking office, again with some legalistic excuse or other.
A similar case
The country is perhaps similar today to a distant if also tropical country, the Philippines. There in 1986, another woman, Corazón Aquino, managed to topple a ruler who was also wedded to power (and wealth) and loath to give it up, Ferdinand Marcos. Is it history’s quirky homage to female power when decades later, the first thing that comes to the mind of ordinary folk at the mention of Marcos.. is his wife Imelda’s several thousand pairs of shoes? The situations are not identical of course. Venezuela’s opposition is perhaps facing greater odds against it, but may be more popular than Mrs Aquino was in 1986. The Marcos regime had also killed her husband, Benigno Aquino, while Maduro has yet to sink to that level with Machado and her collaborators.
So, does Maduro have a plan B for himself?
In the case of the Philippines, elections were held, and Marcos claimed he had won. That sparked public outrage, and protests the army then refused to quell. Could something like that happen in Venezuela? My suspicion is, the armed forces will not fire on the crowds here.
So, does Maduro have a plan B for himself? Because it’s starting to look like he might need one …
