-Analysis-
WARSAW — I recently spent a few beautiful days with my parents in the Białowieża National Park, in eastern Poland. There were no crowds in the nearby village because the crisis on the border with Belarus has discouraged tourists from coming, at great detriment to the local economy. This is based on a misconception, because the buffer zone currently in force does not hinder the use of the forest and local attractions in any way. Yes, during the trip you might meet soldiers who will say good morning to you and maybe even want to talk to you.
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Local residents emphasize that the military’s behavior has improved significantly compared to the first months of the crisis. There are no more burning bonfires in the forest or going out for pizza with their weapons openly displayed, as there were in the past.
However, when walking through the forest, it was hard not to think that a human drama may be taking place just a few hundred meters away from us. Does the reluctance to such reflection discourage tourists from visiting the Białowieża Forest? A similar situation does not stop Poles from lying on the beaches of the Mediterranean Sea, where people trying to get to Europe are drowning. And it discourages contact with our national treasure, the only natural object in Poland included on the UNESCO list.
Maybe when it’s happening in your own country, we feel more guilty? I hope that it is bothering the Polish government, which, by not implementing a well-thought-out migration policy, is contributing to the deepening of the crisis in the Podlasie region.
Military and morals
To begin solving this issue, it is worth taking a look at the work of Professor Klaus Bachmann, a political scientist associated with Warsaw’s SWPS University. Bachmann calls his perspective “empathetic,” which in this case does not mean any tenderness or sympathy, but refers to the fact that he analyzed the situation and needs of each side and compared it to similar crises in the world.
Bachmann’s proposal has one drawback: it will satisfy neither activists who would like to let everyone in need into Poland, nor nationalists who are afraid of any diversity.
Even the most effective military will not solve the humanitarian and moral problem alone. On the contrary, Bachmann proves, using examples of migration crises in other countries, that when the only solution used by the authorities is brutal repulsion, brutalization also occurs on the other side: armed and aggressive migrants begin to press towards the border. We already had samples of this in Poland, with the death of a Polish soldier only a few months ago.
They are getting their information from the lies of Belarusian propaganda
To reverse this trend, two things need to be done. Firstly, open one border crossing on the Polish-Belarusian border, where migrants will be able to submit applications for protection or residence in civilized conditions. It is also necessary to add the possibility of submitting applications online. As part of this procedure, each migrant should be carefully screened to eliminate criminals or spies. The state must create clear criteria according to which you can apply for admission to Poland.
The second thing is an information campaign in the countries where migrants come from. Now they are getting their information from the lies of Belarusian propaganda and reports from friends who managed to get into the EU. These are compelling stories that spread easily. – A person who is missing or lying at the bottom of the sea does not send any messages – notes Bachmann.
We must respond to disinformation and knowledge gaps with reliable information about who has a chance to enter our country and who does not. It should convey a clear message that a large number of those interested do not have a chance. If they nevertheless breach the border, they may be pushed back by the Polish services.
Aging nation
Many of us are heartbroken by the news about pregnant women and children wandering in the forests. But we need to let some migrants in not only for moral reasons. Without them, we will face a collapse of the pension system and economic development: these are the conclusions of the report published last week by Employers of Poland.
According to the Central Statistical Office’s forecast for 2023-2060, the number of people of working age in Poland will shrink by 2060 from 22 million to 15 million in the medium variant or to 13 million in the low variant. The demographic collapse cannot be reversed without the help of migrants, because we are already in its deep phase, when there is a lack not only of children, but also of young women who could be persuaded to give birth.
Polish employers are demanding the creation of a system of training and social integration for migrants from outside the EU who want to work in Poland. Business organizations have been making similar appeals to successive Polish governments for years. Meanwhile, the government finds time to legalize shooting at the border, but cannot get around to creating a migration policy.
The climate catastrophe and ongoing wars will trigger further waves of migration in the coming years. We need a solid plan on how to deal with this to prevent the spread of two crises: humanitarian and economic.
