-Analysis-
PARIS – Donald Trump made it a campaign promise: He was the president who hadn’t started a new war. During his inauguration on Jan. 20, he declared, “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end — and perhaps, more importantly, by the wars we we never get into”
Yet, less than two months into his second term, he has ordered a significant military operation: massive airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen. And through the Houthis, he is sending a clear warning to their backer — Iran.
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Since October 7, 2023, amid the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, the Iran-backed Houthis have opened a new “front” in the Red Sea, forcing a portion of maritime traffic to reroute around Africa due to restricted access to the Suez Canal.
Trump’s direct threat to Iran and Houthi actions
The United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel have repeatedly bombed Houthi positions but failed to eliminate the threat. The attacks only subsided following ceasefires in Lebanon and then Gaza. However, the Houthis resumed their strikes when Israel imposed a new blockade on humanitarian aid to Gaza about 10 days ago. (Meanwhile, Israel resumed bombing of Gaza in the early hours Tuesday, with Hamas reporting 200 deaths.)
So this is the moment when Donald Trump steps into the picture. The U.S. president inflicted significant damage, striking the port of Hodeida and destroying a power plant in Sana’a, the Yemeni capital, with Houthi sources reporting more than 50 deaths.
But alongside these airstrikes, he issued a stark warning on his social media platform: “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!”
His message came in response to a Houthi missile fired toward the U.S. aircraft carrier Harry Truman.
Beyond Trump’s usual rhetoric, there’s a real escalation in these threats. Until now, each “front” had been handled separately. But now, Trump is holding Tehran directly accountable for the actions of its proxies — members of its so-called “Axis of Resistance,” which has been significantly weakened over the past 18 months of conflict.
Nuclear negotiation and the risk of war
Is Donald Trump ready to strike Iran? There are always hidden messages in Trump’s communications. Even as he orders these bombings, the U.S. president sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, just 10 days ago, proposing negotiations on the nuclear issue.
Washington believes Iran is very close to reaching the nuclear threshold
To push Iran toward a compromise, Trump is employing a dual strategy: on one hand, offering negotiations, and on the other, applying “maximum pressure,” including the military option, which the strikes on the Houthis are intended to make credible.
Washington believes Iran is very close to reaching the nuclear threshold, the point at which it could develop an atomic bomb. Trump is determined to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power during his term, seeing it as a personal failure if that happens.
However, a war with Iran would have unpredictable consequences that certain countries with close ties to the United States like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates want to avoid.
But at the same time, it is a risk that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to take. Through Yemen, Donald Trump faces a far more significant decision — the “commander in chief” bragging about ending wars, but who may have just started one.
