Why Arab Leaders Welcomed Trump’s Victory — Until They Didn’t

-Analysis-

CAIRO — Since the end of World War II, the Republicans have typically been the preferred party of most of the United States’ Arab allies.

Historically backed by major oil and arms companies, the Republican Party has always been seen as being more open to dealing with the outside world and intervening in its wars and crises, compared to the Democrats’ focus on domestic issues such as the economic welfare, health care, and minorities’ rights.

The matter was not much different in the latest U.S. elections, which ended with Donald Trump‘s return to the White House, seen as a satisfactory outcome for Washington’s traditional allies in the Arab world.

Both the Republican and Democratic parties had shifted their Middle East policy since the disastrous end of President George W. Bush‘s adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan, abandoning the policy of spreading American democracy by force. Still, Trump adopted a notably different approach than the establishment of either party.

Since the launch of his first 2016 election campaign, the real estate mogul, who boasts of his ability to make billion-dollar deals, has repeatedly said that it is time for the United States to stop spending its funds on protecting the interests of other countries, including its traditional allies in Europe, Asia and the Arab world — and that whoever wants American support will have to pay the price.

It was no coincidence that Trump’s first foreign visit in his first term was to Saudi Arabia, from which he returned with multi-billion arms deals. He viewed such deals a dazzling success for his policy of standing behind allies who support the American economy and create more jobs in it, not those who seek cheap labor in China or Southeast Asia.

In return for these deals with Saudi Arabia, Trump adopted a hardline stance on Iran. He withdrew from the nuclear deal; ordered the assassination of Iranian Republican Guards chief Qassem Soleimani; and tightened restrictions on Iranian oil.

However, Trump’s support for Riyadh had its limits, including a refusal to support Saudi Arabia’s war against the Houthis in Yemen.

It is true that the strategic American interests in maintaining oil flows and ensuring the security of the occupying Israeli state have forced all successive U.S. administrations to deal with Arab dictatorships regardless of their human rights records.

It’s also true that the complete absence of issues of democracy and human rights in the Trumpian agenda makes the Arabs more comfortable in dealing with Republicans. Trump indeed has prioritized financially profitable deals with allies.

​Trumpian agenda

The U.S.-allied Arab regimes were not comfortable even with the insistence of officials in the Joe Biden administration to raise the issue of human rights in every official meeting. Kamala Harris was not expected to change this approach if she won the presidency.

Biden wouldn’t give a blank check

In the case of Egypt, which has been a strong U.S. ally since the late 1970s, Barack Obama wouldn’t receive Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi at the White House after the overthrow of former President Mohamed Morsi on July 3, 2013 — and froze American aid to Cairo for an entire year.

As for Biden, he confirmed at the beginning of his presidency that he would not give a “blank check” to Washington’s allies who do not prioritize human rights issues, a clear reference to the Egyptian regime.

Renaissance dam

In contrast, el-Sisi was among the world leaders Trump welcomed to the White House in his first term.

Trump sought unsuccessfully to resolve the escalating crisis with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. He also declared his support for Egypt in its war on terrorism, although he did not declare the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization, as Cairo had hoped.

Mike Huckabee has said “there’s really no such thing as a Palestinian.”

So, with the exception of Qatar, which enjoyed better relations with the Democrats, the pro-Washington Arab regimes had something to celebrate with Trump’s victory. That is: until the president-elect began announcing his choices for the symbols of his new administration.

Crazy choices

In his second term, Trump’s administration will include a group of hardline supporters of the Zionist right. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee — who has said “there’s really no such thing as a Palestinian,” — will become America’s ambassador to Israel.

Senator Marco Rubio, who said that Hamas is completely responsible for the human losses in Gaza because it used Palestinians as “human shields,” will become Secretary of State.

Representative Elise Stefanik, who describes the United Nations as a “swamp of anti-Semitism,” will represent her country at the United Nations.

Stefanik came under intense scrutiny last year when she accused three female presidents of three major American universities over the pro-Palestinian protests in their universities of not taking sufficient steps to surpass the protests under the pretext that the demonstrations were anti-Semitic.

Trump has made a point of including fervent pro-Israel supporters in his administration and adopted policies that support it, to the point that he has repeatedly expressed his great surprise at the preference of the majority of American Jews to vote for Democrats. He has intentionally ignored the fact that they are well aware of the prevalence of fascist and racist ideas among many of his supporters, who are white supremacists and anti-Semites.

Real estate questions

The wealthy Arab oil states may believe that they can purchase Trump’s favor and make deals with him through his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, or his new envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, who likewise works in the New York real estate business and was Trump’s link with wealthy American Jews who supported the Republican candidate’s election campaign.

Trump pledged in his campaign not to create new wars and to end existing ones

But Trump’s expected wild move of approving Israel‘s annexation of the West Bank will certainly prolong the war, causing huge losses in innocent lives, and casting a shadow over any potential deals and partnerships.

Trump pledged in his campaign not to create new wars and to end existing ones, whether in the Middle East or Ukraine. But the shocking appointments to almost all key positions in his administration suggest that we should expect the worst from this “administration of lunatics” in which there is not a single sane voice calling for peace.

Do his Arab allies realize that this is the reality they are facing?