Trump after his arrival Monday in New York
-Analysis-
PARIS — New York City police officers placed on high alert — though the threat to the global city, painfully stricken on 9/11, did not come this time from Islamic fundamentalists, or some kind of revival of gang warfare like in the old days of Prohibition.
This time, the potential enemies were Donald Trump's strongest supporters, who had threatened to try to stop the functioning of a justice system set on proving that no one is above the law — not even a former U.S. president. For now, the worst scenarios have been avoided.
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Still, since Trump’s indictment, we've witnessed what could be described as the third act of an American tragedy. The first act took place in Nov. 2016, with the election to the U.S. presidency of the man least fit for the job in the country's history.
The second, even more spectacular act, was the attempted coup of Jan. 6, 2021, when fanatical supporters of the defeated president marched on the U.S. Capitol. The third act now unfolding before our eyes is the indictment of a former president for the first time in U.S. history.
Whatever happens, the polarization of American society will only increase, and risks stealing America's attention away from other news stories.
Internal disputes
Italian daily La Stampa's front page
Forget Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, or global warming and its immediate consequences, like the tornadoes hitting the United States with exceptional frequency and violence. Like a popular TV series, the "Trump" show is likely to monopolize the attention of an America fascinated by its own internal disputes.
He knows that the more his followers are outraged by his treatment, the more they will support him.
Obviously, justice must proceed, freely and without regard to political expediency. But by indicting Trump, the judge might offer a gift to America's adversaries.
Donald Trump delights in the role of the persecuted victim, if not the martyr, even though his priority is undoubtedly to escape justice, just as he escaped conscription during the Vietnam War. He knows that in his denial of reality, and his permanent and systematic rewriting of history, he can count on the unfailing backing of his fervid supporters, who remain the majority within the Republican Party.
Didn't he say in 2016 that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue in New York and not lose any voters? He knows that the more his followers are outraged by his treatment by the courts, the more they will support him. "I am your warrior. I am your justice," he told supporters recently in Waco, Texas.
Trump, or the outraged martyr
Brazilian daily O Globo's front page
The irony of the situation is that Trump is being charged for the least of his mistakes: having tried to buy the silence of a porn star, with whom he, of course, has denied having had any relationship.
Many American commentators make the comparison with Al Capone. Didn't the Chicago mob boss fall for tax evasion? Could Trump stumble on a combination of sex and lies? Interestingly, among Trump's most fervent supporters are probably those parents of students in a Texas school who forced the resignation of a teacher who had committed the far more serious sin of showing her students a reproduction of Michelangelo's sculpture David. Pornography yes; classical beauty, no.
But in the Republican primaries, Trump may emerge stronger after his troubles with justice. His rivals in the party, especially Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, are likely to rally to his cause and close ranks behind the outraged martyr.
By the Nov. 2024 election, Trump may, conversely, be permanently and fatally weakened by this indignity, even if he is acquitted. It is in this sense that his indictment may be good news for Joe Biden.
From disgrace to defeat
German daily Tagesspiegel's front page
For the current U.S. president, if his health allows him to run again at the age of 82, Trump is the best possible Republican opponent. They are almost the same age (although Trump appears to be in better physical shape) and, above all, the former U.S. president has an exceptional ability to mobilize those he has ceaselessly offended and insulted over the years.
Can the coming trial restore America's moral fiber?
On the other hand, DeSantis is almost half Biden's age, and even if he is ideologically more extreme than Trump (which is not difficult, as Trump believes in nothing but himself), the Florida governor is less likely to stir up the opposition than Trump, the undisputed champion of bluffing, lying and provocation.
"We shall choose shame, and then have war thrown in," Winston Churchill said, denouncing the behavior of Britons who sought a compromise with Nazi Germany. Could we apply this saying to the Republican Party, which, by continuing to support Trump, will go from disgrace to defeat?
Can the coming trial restore America's moral fiber? Or is there a risk that the country’s extreme polarization might weaken it further in the global competition with authoritarianism?
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