The Future Of Syria Could Be Much Brighter — Or Even Darker

-Analysis-

CAIRO — Following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad, there many questions about Syria’s future, including how the country will be run and how it can avoid plunging into a spiral of chaos and armed conflicts like Libya, Somalia and Afghanistan.

Al-Manassa speaks with Egyptian researcher and political analyst Ahmad Sultan and Cairo-based Syrian journalist Abdul Rahman Rabou about the situation on the ground and about foreign influences.

One of the main concerns is the ambitions of the victorious leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham opposition group, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who appears to be eager to play a greater political role. Though the experts caution that there’s still much uncertainty about which direction Syria will go, several key elements are worth watching in the coming weeks and months.

​Aleppo model

Even before Assad’s downfall, Syria was divided into “four main governments,” explains Sultan, a researcher specialized in Arab and regional affairs: the regime’s government, which will run Damascus with the opposition even after Assad’s departure; the U.S.-backed autonomous administration in northeastern Syria, most of which is controlled by the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces; the Salvation Government in northwestern Syria, run by HTS, which is viewed as the most organized force among the opposition factions; and the Syrian National Coalition government, affiliated with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA).

All employees and officials in Aleppo returned to work

As for the armed conflict, the military coalition which launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression that toppled Assad, includes fractions with various and comparing backgrounds. Among them are Islamists and other groups allied with and supported by the United States.

Given these complex entanglements, Sultan and Rabou said the country’s future is unclear. The current situation could lead to mergers and understandings among dominant forces. Yet stability won’t be achieved unless there is a just settlement to the Kurdish issue, Sultan said.

In the short term, Rabou said that Damascus, in particular, could witness in the coming days a repetition of what happened in Aleppo after the opposition factions took control of it about a week ago.

“All employees and officials in Aleppo returned to their government departments, and all state institutions were back to work,” he said. Yet the different nature of Damascus “and what it included in terms of sovereign, foreign, defense, security and financial functions” remains a challenge that requires special arrangements. “We are still facing a transitional phase the features of which are not clear,” he said.

​Foreign parties

Sultan said the current circumstances cannot be separated from the 14-year civil war. “The equation of governance in Syria cannot be separated from the interventions of regional and international powers, most notably Turkey, the United States and Israel, in addition to other countries with strategic interests in the region,” he said, pointing out that these foreign parties play a pivotal role in directing the course of events in Syria, making its future more complex.

Hours after the announcement of the fall of the Assad regime, Israel occupied the Mount Hermon area adjacent to the occupied Golan Heights and established a buffer zone. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the downfall of Assad a “historic day.”

Turkey’s influence, through HTS and the National Army factions, Sultan said, reinforces the idea of maintaining the centrality of the Syrian state as a single unit. Yet with the continuation of complications, the possibility of federalism remains, and thus it is difficult to predict the future of the political system in the country, he said.

Sultan also said al-Golani will have a leading role in the next political phase, despite competition from many political parties to form the new regime. Leaders of the armed opposition meanwhile have begun communicating with countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, to get support that would allow them to participate in future arrangements, he said.

He noted that HTS has managed to dismantle most of the groups opposing its orientations. It has strengthened its influence as a dominant force compared to the factions of the SNA.

​Potential clashes

Sultan did not rule out limited clashes in some areas such as the Aleppo countryside, especially with the Syrian Democratic Forces. But these conflicts “will most likely end with international understandings between the United States and Turkey,” he said, ruling out fighting between HTS and the Turkish-backed SNA.

“If it happens, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is capable of eliminating it, but infighting will not occur because the Turkish state is acting as a coordinator for both parties,” he said.

For Rabou, Assad was the main problem.

Another factor is the Islamic State group, which is fighting against all of these parties and is concentrated in the Badia and northeastern Syria regions, which are controlled by the Kurdish Autonomous Administration. Rabou said that Arab countries are making concerted efforts to prevent Syria from sliding into the control of terrorist and extremist organizations.

He stressed the importance of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt in “helping the Syrians unite again and reconcile the different parties.” For Rabou, Assad was the main problem, and “as long as he is gone, there is no problem with the other members of his regime. They were executive employees. Most of those who committed crimes against the Syrian people have fled.”