-Analysis-
PARIS — Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te was filmed eating a plate of Japanese sushi with a big smile on his face. The irony of this little scene only makes sense if you are closely following the geopolitical tensions in this part of East Asia.
For the past three weeks, tensions have been running high between Japan and China, following a statement by Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would constitute an “existential threat” to Japan and would justify military action. In Beijing’s eyes, Ms. Takaichi “crossed a red line” that she should never have approached.
Since then, China has taken retaliatory measures against Japan, canceling visits by Chinese tourists, and imports of Japanese seafood — hence the Taiwanese president’s video — and categorically refusing to meet with the Japanese prime minister at the G20 summit this weekend. Ms. Takaichi refused to back down from her statement and deployed missiles on a Japanese island less than 100 kilometers from Taiwan.
On Monday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping called Donald Trump to discuss Japan and Taiwan. Trump then called Takaichi. This flurry of activity seems to be aimed at preventing the crisis from escalating, but it raises questions.
Taiwan is obviously the issue that strikes a nerve with Beijing. China is constantly looking to avoid the Taiwan issue being internationalized, and is keen to keep it it a domestic Chinese matter.
In his account of the phone call, Trump only mentioned the announcement of his state visit to Beijing next April, while the Chinese communiqué highlighted Taiwan as a topic. This reinforces Taipei’s ongoing fear that Trump’s United States could pull back on its support for the island and its 23 million inhabitants if Beijing offers a major global “deal.” The risk is low because U.S.- China rivalry is deep and bipartisan, but Trump’s ambiguity is worrying.
What if?
If the U.S. were to step back, Japan would find itself in a position similar to Europe’s with Ukraine: expected to assume Washington’s role in supporting the island against China’s growing power.
Is Japan capable of playing this role? This is the question Ms. Takaichi’s success and the current crisis bring this question to the forefront. The new prime minister is an admirer of Margaret Thatcher, backs revising Japan’s pacifist constitution, and supports doubling the defense budget.
In the event of an American defection, Japan would face China on its own.
She welcomed Trump during his recent tour of Asia and presents herself as a firm ally of the United States in its efforts to contain China. But in the event of an American defection, Japan would face China on its own — a China that holds historical grievances from World War II and sees Japan as a barrier to its ambitions.
Once again, Taiwan will be the decisive factor, a Taiwan that just announced a record $40 billion in additional military spending. A Chinese TV series that is currently drawing huge audiences tells the story of the most famous communist spy in Taiwan after Chiang Kai-shek’s 1949 retreat. Although the spy is captured, he writes in his own blood: “Taiwan must return.” That reflects the current atmosphere: no room for compromise.