-Analysis-
PARIS — If you want peace, prepare for war.
This is the message that the Taiwanese people sent by electing William Lai, a man who is firmly opposed to China and determined to defend — by arms if necessary — the independence of the island nation. His victory will certainly trigger renewed tension in the coming weeks: Beijing will be tempted to express its anger by increasing military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait.
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Yet, it is unrealistic to think that peace could be maintained through dialogue, as was proposed by the losing candidate of the Kuomintang party. Hong Kong’s descent into hell has largely demonstrated that it is impossible to believe in Xi Jinping’s promises. By opposing Beijing, William Lai defends the sovereignty of the island as much as democracy — values that are also ours.
A third war?
Just like Ukraine is standing up to Russia, Lai hopes to prove that dwarves can defy giants. Taiwan, however, has a major handicap that is almost unique in the world: the country is not recognized by the international community, nor even by the United Nations, which transferred its seat to Beijing in 1971.
Support for Ukraine, which is based on the UN charter and the right of member countries to defend a sovereign state, is therefore not applicable to Taiwan.
A Chinese invasion or blockade would be a catastrophe for our businesses and factories, and daily lives.
To what extent will Western countries come to the island’s aid if Beijing declares war? After Ukraine in 2022 and Israel in 2023, no one wants to get involved in a new conflict this year. States no longer have weapons or money, and Taipei seems very far away.
Biggest stakes
However, of the three conflicts, a China-Taiwan war is the one which would actually affect us the most in the West.
The island produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors, and 90% of the most sophisticated ones — those that power our smartphones. It took Taipei 40 years to build this ecosystem, which no country can replicate in the medium term. A Chinese invasion or blockade would be a catastrophe for our businesses and factories, and our daily lives.
As much as Saturday’s vote, the fate of the island will also depend on the U.S. election in November, as the campaign starts with the battle of the presidential primaries this week. Nothing says that if Donald Trump wins, he will commit to defending his ally as Joe Biden did. Republicans in Congress are already blocking funding for Ukraine and Israel, in the hopes of obtaining a tougher migration policy in return.
Donald Trump is not assured of taking power once again but Trumpism, accompanied by the isolationist temptation, has already begun its work of undermining the international order.
