-Analysis-
PARIS – Donald Trump has talked a lot and taken plenty of action since moving into the White House 10 days ago. Yet he has said surprisingly little about China, despite it being the United States’ top strategic concern.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
He did speak with President Xi Jinping by phone, and he also intervened to restore the U.S. version of Chinese social media platform TikTok, which had been shut down for a few hours; and most notably, he was caught off guard by DeepSeek, the Chinese artificial intelligence platform that shook the American model. Trump called it a “wake-up call.”
But so far, none of these specific topics outlines a clear policy — one that could still hold surprises.
Beijing is in wait-and-see mode
Donald Trump had suggested that an additional 10% tariff would be imposed on Chinese products starting February 1. So far, the measure has yet to be enacted. This would be the first salvo in a trade war that everyone has expected to resurface — but it is not guaranteed.
Donald Trump’s objective with China is twofold and conflicting: he wants to check China’s superpower ambitions, while making it pay for what he sees as its taking advantage of the U.S. He intends to push hard against Beijing, and has filled his administration with an array of rabid anti-China hawks.
But the businessman he once was — and still is at heart — knows that there are trade openings to be had in China. That’s also the message coming from his new pal, Elon Musk, who wants to expand the business he’s doing in China with Tesla, and is regularly treated like a head of state when he visits Beijing.
The Chinese are uncertain whether to expect the fierce hostility of the American president, a possibility he’s shown he’s capable of, or the offer of a “deal,” which he is known to make. It’s entirely possible that he will choose to cut a deal.
Taiwan for Greenland?
One of the biggest obstacles to a grand bargain between the U.S. and China is Taiwan, the island claimed by Beijing and under unofficial American protection. But there are troubling signs for Taiwan.
First, there was the Greenland issue, the territory linked to Denmark that Donald Trump desperately wants to “swallow.” If Washington can set its sights on a sovereign territory, even threatening to use force, what’s the difference with China’s ambitions over Taiwan? Both in Taipei and Beijing, no one missed the analogy.
Donald Trump goes on to suggest that Taiwan itself will face a 100% tax on microchip exports. He is very fond of branding this island as an economy that has stolen American industry. The accusation is absurd: Taiwan had an industrial strategy which resulted in American businesses relocating their chip production to TSMC, the Taiwanese behemoth. TSMC is now putting up plants in Arizona, but it has plenty of hurdles to overcome in building them.
But it’s especially a strange approach to penalize a country that is supposed to be protected from Chinese ambitions. This raises questions about Trump’s intentions and stirs fears that Taiwan could be part of a potential Sino-American “deal.” As the new Year of the Snake begins, the people of Taiwan have new a series of new fears, starting with the American president’s famous unpredictability.
