-Analysis-
PARIS — You’ll never see soybeans the same way again. This humble, protein-rich crop is unexpectedly at the center of U.S.–China rivalry, and thus helping to define the geopolitical tensions of our era.
This time of year, U.S. soybean farmers normally head into harvest season with their order books full. China — by far their biggest customer — usually buys half their crop, a trade worth $13 billion last year. But this year, not a single order. Not a single dollar. For farmers, the loss is devastating.
The reason comes down to two words: trade war. From his first days back in office, Donald Trump launched a tariff offensive, with China as his main target. Beijing struck back by curbing exports of rare earth minerals, where it dominates the global market, and by shutting its doors to American soybeans.
China’s choice of soybeans is no accident. The top producing state is Iowa—a Republican stronghold and home to many Trump voters. In November, Trump is set to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Seoul, and soybeans are almost certain to be on the agenda.
Brazilian alternative
So where does China turn for its soybeans now? This is where the story gets interesting. In the 1970s, at a time when America was by far the world’s leading producer, a poor U.S. harvest opened the door for Latin American agricultural powers Brazil and Argentina to begin producing soybeans on a large scale.
When China experienced rapid growth at the beginning of the 21st century, its eating habits changed and its soybean imports skyrocketed, increasing elevenfold until China was buying 60% of the world’s production. To avoid dependence on a single supplier, Beijing spread its purchases across the three major producers: the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.
Geopolitical tensions intervened, and Chinese buyers were ordered to boycott the United States and buy as much as they could from Brazil. Under President Lula, Brazil, China’s partner in the BRICS bloc, became the preferred supplier. At the same time, Brazil faced its own friction with Washington, as the U.S. imposed politically motivated tariffs linked to the trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally of Trump’s.
Soy and globalization
This story, which stretches across three continents and centers on a humble crop largely destined for animal feed, highlights both the globalization of recent decades and the disruptive power of even the smallest geopolitical shift.
China has both the means and the resolve to retaliate in ways that were underestimated.
A new book, Géopolitique du soja (Geopolitics of soy), by Olivier Antoine, an expert from the Demeter network specializing in agricultural issues, explores this theme in depth. “Soy,” he writes, “symbolizes how far geopolitical rivalries extend beyond traditional diplomatic or military areas to include food and agricultural processes.”
And the impact is not limited to geopolitics. Chinese demand for soybeans has contributed to deforestation in the Amazon, as land is cleared to make Brazil the world’s leading producer. Europe has responded by banning imports of soybeans grown on deforested land, and the current tensions are unlikely to ease the problem.
For Americans, the situation is first and foremost a wake-up call. It demonstrates that China, as a superpower, has both the means and the resolve to retaliate in ways that were underestimated. Farmers in Iowa did not anticipate losing everything by casting their votes for Trump.