High Risk, No Rules: Welcome To The Era Of Geopolitical “Anomie”

-Analysis-

PARIS — The world entered the 21st century with optimism, riding the wave of a so-called “happy globalization” that had begun a decade earlier. A relatively functional United Nations, a fairly effective multilateral framework and a reasonable level of trust in international law were bolstered by the hope that democracy would continue to spread like wildfire.

But after the attacks of September 11, 2001, that optimism began to erode, and the paradigm has been in decline ever since. The 2003 Iraq War reopened a cycle of flagrant violations of international law, which Russia, driven once again by imperial instincts, continued in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.

These actions have effectively buried the collective security system established in 1945 by the UN Charter.

Disillusionment with democratic ideals has led many nations to entrust their futures to autocrats, who often first arrive through regular elections and quickly cement their grip on power. Today, there are only about 30 liberal democracies left in the world.

The hopes attached to the belief that free trade fosters peace have been proven wrong. Far from encouraging progression towards democracy, like some predicted, globalization gave authoritarian regimes and dictators the means to reinforce their power — and military strength — without liberalizing, like we’ve seen with China and Russia.

Deep European weakness

Within the so-called “West” built in 1945 by the United States as a community of shared interests and values, the European project is the most accomplished embodiment of democratic ideals. Rooted in the sovereign equality of states, elements of supranational governance, and respect for the rule of law, the European Union managed to thrive in the shadow of the U.S.

China, Russia, and the United States all benefit from dealing with a divided Europe.

Yet, after rising to the top by including nations freed from Soviet domination, the EU, then 28 members, found itself weakened by the rising tide of national-populism. Brexit, illiberal trends in Hungary and Poland, and the electoral gains of populist parties across the continent have undermined the EU’s cohesion.

The point of convergence among these movements is their aversion to the perspective inscribed in successive treaties of an “ever closer union between the people of Europe,” effectively sounding the death knell of these ideas.

Hybrid warfare and social media

A fragmented Europe provides fertile ground for the interests of three major powers— China, Russia, and the United States— all of which benefit from dealing with a divided Europe.

These powers aim to “revise” the Western international order, which they see as an obstacle to their ambitions. They advance their agendas through alternative, parallel multilateralism in forums like BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and summits with African leaders.

In the case of Russia, these maneuvers have the added benefit of seeking to legitimize its war of aggression in Ukraine while threatening nuclear escalation.

But hybrid warfare is also on the rise, with cyberspace as a battleground for disinformation and manipulation. And social media, accountable to no real regulations, has become a key weapon of disinformation and manipulation in this new form of conflict.

Planetary anomie

The collapse of peace through law and collective security, the disintegration of universal multilateralism and the proliferation of “alternative truths” all point to a new picture described in the French word anomie (which is also used in English).

Defined by the French language dictionary Le Robert as the “absence of organization or law and the disappearance of shared values within a group,” the term describes the state of international relations going into the second quarter of our century, where rivalries between powers are no longer constrained by rules at all.

Europe’s position in this world of anomie is precarious.

The emerging geopolitical paradigm is one of a kind of “armed peace” between nuclear powers, shaped by spheres of influence, client states, protectorates, dependencies, and fluctuating circumstantial alliances — led by states armed with nuclear weapons as the ultimate guarantee of security.

The battlefield now spans the range from cyberwarfare and other hybrid threats, to economic dynamism and technological breakthroughs — like the convergence of quantum computing and artificial intelligence — introducing the potential for “strategic surprises.”

Europe’s position in this world of anomie is precarious. Weakened by internal corrosion, and troubled by the demons of national-populism and demographic aging — its median age is projected to reach 48 by 2050 — the continent faces significant challenges. As Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, starkly warned, Europe’s “garden” is increasingly threatened by a “jungle” filled with “ruthless carnivores.”