More Than Taiwan, The Real Target Of China’s Military Drills Is Trump

-Analysis-

PARIS – Amid rising international tensions, Chinese leaders saw an opportunity this week: it could be the perfect moment to conduct military drills around Taiwan. The Chinese military deployed significant naval and aerial forces, simulating a blockade and attack on the island that Beijing is determined to reclaim. Taiwan reported dozens of Chinese aircraft, 21 warships and 10 coast guard vessels surrounding the island for more than seven hours on Wednesday.

Beijing’s objective was twofold: first, to warn Taiwanese President William Lai, who recently provoked China by calling it a “hostile foreign force.” The word that stings the most is “foreign,” as Beijing insists there is only one China — Taiwan included.

But Beijing also wants to test U.S. President Donald Trump, who has yet to fully reveal his strategy in East Asia. China’s military drills prompted the White House to issue a strong condemnation of any attempt to “change the status quo by force” — that’s the traditional U.S. position, but Trump’s administration had yet to reaffirm it. At least in this arena, there’s no shift in doctrine, unlike with Ukraine or Europe.

Allies question U.S. resolve 

Yet, U.S. allies remain uneasy. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth traveled to Japan and the Philippines last week to reassure both nations of Washington’s unwavering commitments. He even announced the construction of a wartime command center in Japan for the Indo-Pacific region, calling Japan a “key ally” in deterring Chinese aggression, including in the Taiwan Strait.

But doubts linger: The United States’ word no longer carries the same weight. An Asian diplomat recently expressed concern over Washington’s tendency to blur the lines between trade disputes and security matters, which were traditionally kept separate. South Korea, now facing a 25% tariff hike while being surrounded by two hostile nuclear powers — China and North Korea — is struggling to make sense of it all.

In the upheaval of U.S. foreign policy, hostility toward China remains a constant.

The transactional nature of Washington’s relationships also raises concerns, along with the unpredictability of the president. The self-proclaimed “deal-maker” can catch anyone off guard at any moment — hardly a reassuring trait for maintaining stable alliances.

Trumps’s challenge to global order 

In the upheaval of U.S. foreign policy — the effects of which Europeans are feeling acutely — hostility toward China remains a constant. It was Trump who, during his first presidential term, initiated the technological war against Beijing — a “containment” strategy, as it was called during the Cold War — continued by President Joe Biden and now resumed by Trump 2.0.

But at the same time, it’s clear that we are only at the beginning of Trump’s challenge to the international order. He made an overture toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, with little success so far on ending the war in Ukraine; he has condemned Europeans to solitude; he has played tough, without convincing anyone.

The relationship between the United States and China remains the defining issue of the 21st century, the only one capable of challenging American hegemony. But the United States’ allies are plagued by doubts: Can they truly rely on the Americans? The recent Chinese maneuvers are just the first test of this resolve.