-Analysis-
CAIRO — The Middle East has entered a whole new phase of its history, amid the great political vacuum that has followed Israel’s devastating wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and now the downfall of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
The precise features of this phase are not clear yet. What is more clear, however, is that this moment represents a real opportunity for Egypt to return to the forefront of leadership in a turbulent region facing serious challenges. These challenges stem from the political vacuum, the bloody wars across the region and the lack of a clear vision for what will come next.
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There are also unanswered questions about the relations among the region’s countries; the regimes and their peoples; and the relation with the West. Whoever is able to formulate a vision answering these major strategic questions will play a leading role in the region’s future.
Most political analyses based on military developments on the ground suggest that Israel and Turkey are the top contenders to play this leadership role. Both countries seek to fill the gaps and exploit the spaces left by the decline of the Axis of Resistance, and Iran’s inevitable abandonment of its position of power.
However, it appears unlikely that either or both of them together will be able to create real momentum, let alone impose any comprehensive vision on the region, given the negative sentiment against the two counties (for very different reasons).
The Middle East needs a vision that emanates from the region itself, formulated by its countries without seeking to monopolize leadership, but prioritizing the common interests of all countries with the aim of achieving stability and security for the peoples of the region. This vision must also include clear reassurances to all parties, and present comprehensive solutions to the region’s conflicts, and control the tense atmosphere between various parties.
No country can play this role alone, no matter how strong it is supported militarily, economically, or internationally.
Here, the opportunity appears for Egypt, which can play a vital role in helping neighboring countries shape this vision, in addition to playing a leading role in achieving it, after the Middle East that we knew since the Cold War has gone forever.
Modern Egypt’s origin story
How did Egypt get to where it is now? The collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I, and the subsequent decline of the traditional colonial powers at the end of World War II, provided the first opportunity for the region’s people and countries to express themselves and their vision for their future.
The view of the region from the West, with its European and American wings, was formulated through relations with the leading countries in the Middle East since the early 1950s, the beginning of the establishment of the modern independent states.
Nasser saw an opportunity to begin formulating a regional vision.
The Egypt led by Gamal Abdel Nasser largely carried the banner in the initial post-War phase. Nasser saw an opportunity to begin formulating a regional vision that transcended national borders based on a triangle: Arab solidarity, eliminating colonialism, and consolidating the legitimacy of regimes dominated by military and security components at home. This adventure continued with a mixture of successes and failures until it reached its final stop with the crushing defeat of 1967 at the hands of Israel in the Six-Day War.
Cairo more fully renounced any possible scenario of regional leadership when it signed a peace deal with Israel in 1979. That same year there was the emergence of Ayatollah Khomeini’s Iran, which took over the banner with the victory of its Islamic Revolution .
Sadat’s legacy
Egypt then focused on returning its occupied territories, stopping the infernal cycle of permanent mobilization and continuous war.
Indeed, it achieved great success in preserving the unity and integrity of its territories after the return of Sinai Peninsula and the peace deal with Israel. That era was governed by clear policies initiated by President Anwar Sadat and continued by his successor Hosni Mubarak, including not engaging in any armed conflicts outside Egyptian borders.
During the 50 years, the Egyptian political and military decision-making circles adhered to this trend with one exception; it occurred with international consensus and had economic justification- the war to liberate Kuwait from Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi invasion.
Madness and chaos
Egypt’s voluntary abandonment of its ambitions for political and military expansion left a vacuum in regional leadership. Saddam in Iraq and Khomeini in Iran viewed this as an opportunity. They began a bloody rivalry in the 1980s to shape and lead what would later be known as the Axis of Resistance, or the Axis of Defiance.
However, Saddam practically exited the race to lead the region following his strategic mistake of invading Kuwait in 1990, and Iraq would be besieged for 13 years during and after the Anglo-American invasion. The U.S.-led invasion which toppled Saddam Hussein, was like the official announcement of Iran‘s acquisition of the torch of regional leadership.
Iran has to hand over regional leadership.
Iran’s regional vision relied on the following triangle: Reviving the Persian nationalist ambitions; supporting the Shiites politically, militarily, and economically to create an imperial extension from Tehran to Jerusalem; and consolidating the clerics’ rule domestically.
This Iranian adventure lasted for nearly two decades, until it ended with the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, followed by the dramatic downfall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
At this point, Iran has to hand over regional leadership. Perhaps, the best available option is to adopt Egypt’s approach after its 1967 defeat; to heal the wounds, return to the borders, and abandon the illusions of ideological salvation in light of the fact that it is politically defeated, economically exhausted, and on the verge of a social explosion.
Seize the moment
Imam Ali bin Abi Talib once said: “Seize opportunities. They pass like clouds.”
Today, Egypt under the rule of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has a great opportunity to regain the regional leadership badge. It has ultimately benefited from its defensive orientation in recent decades, through continuous investment in maximizing its military power, especially when all the countries of the region and their armies were exhausted to varying degrees, as a result of the conflicts of influence and the ongoing proxy wars from 1979 to 2024.
Egypt also has to engage actively with the Gulf-Turkey-Iran triangle
This defensive orientation has maximized Egypt’s ability to speak and communicate with everyone. However, the huge Egyptian human reserve, and the general Arab acceptance and even welcoming of the Egyptian presence, make what seems difficult and intractable for Ankara and Tel Aviv, much easier for Cairo.
What could prevent Egypt from seizing this opportunity is delay in action or hesitation in exploiting its resources and talents in the best possible way. Egypt should thus quickly put its domestic affairs in order, by improving the management of its human capital. It should implement the well-known set of political, economic and social reforms, in addition to strengthening its diplomacy which has already been reactivated in recent years.
Egypt also has to engage actively with the Gulf-Turkey-Iran triangle, while strengthening the dialogue on “recovery and reconstruction” with Iraq, the new Syria, Lebanon, Libya, and Yemen. And it has to remain concerned in both word and deed with the future of the Palestinians.
What would a new Egypt-led vision for the Middle East look like? Reduce the strongman-rule model, and seek opportunity on the economic plane.
Is Cairo willing to seize this opportunity? Will it succeed? The clouds are passing.
