Photo of ​Tunisian President Kais Saied and his wife Ichraf Chebil on election day in Tunis
Tunisian President Kais Saied and his wife Ichraf Chebil on election day in Tunis Chokri Mahjoub/ZUMA

Updated Oct. 7, 2024 at 6:50 p.m.*

SFAX — In the chaos of the Alloajat bus station in this coastal Tunisian city, an African woman carrying her young child wrapped on her back is looking for information about which buses are heading to the city of Sousse. A security officer rushes over to the young mother and demands identification documents, before kicking her out of the station while shouting insults.

This scene captures both the suffering of countless sub-Saharan African refugees and the current state of Tunisia where everything to be predetermined — as shown by the preliminary results of Sunday’s presidential election that give incumbent President Kais Saied a landslide victory, in a vote marked by low turnout and stifled opposition.

The Mediterranean sea stands before them, with new European Union funds provided to prevent them from sailing towards the European shores, and to deport them to the desert as the tragic new “solution” awaiting them.

Ibrahim, a young Sudanese refugee from Omdurman, said he was intercepted twice while on a migrant boat along with many others trying to sail to the shores of Europe.

“The first time, they brought us back from the sea and then deported us to Algeria because we came from there to Tunisia,” he said.

Ibrahim returned to Tunisia and tried to leave again, but was caught by the Tunisian Coast Guard. “They grabbed me and then threw me with others in the olive groves in the Amra area in Sfax,” he said. “And now, to escape, I am waiting for a miracle.”

Many others, he said, were forcibly deported to Libya. They were thrown into remote areas with no aid or care, he added.

Surge in attacks on migrants

Along the road between Sfax and the Amra, migrants — men and women — look lost as they sit under olive trees, perhaps waiting for divine intervention for relief. An activist, who asked not to be identified, said many refugees have suffered from verbal or physical attacks, harassment and intimidation by some local residents.

He said that such attacks increased after February 2023 when President Kais Saied accused African migrants of trying to change the demographic composition of Tunisia, and called for “urgent measures” to stop the flow of irregular migrants to his country. The authoritarian president said that this phenomenon resulted in “violence and crimes.”

It was not an isolated incident

The activists trying to help the migrants were also attacked and intimidated. One activist said he was brutally attacked by local cafe goers when he brought a box of tissues from an African migrant, accused of “encouraging that refugee to settle in Tunisia.”

It was not an isolated incident. A migrant from Nigeria reported that he was repeatedly subjected to racist abuse by locals, who also attacked a local activist who tried to defend the migrant.

A Tunisian female activist was detained just for helping take a refugee woman to hospital as she was about to give birth on the side of the road, according to local activists. The activist was still in detention.

This is not the natural state of Tunisia, which has always welcomed persecuted people fleeing the scourge of tyrants and wars.

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Heinous act

It’s not just the deplorable mistreatment of migrants that’s prompting concerns about Tunisia, which was once described as the jewel of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings.

Freedom of expression, free press and civil society activists have been under threat as well. Numerous journalists, lawyers and activists have been arrested, in a blatant violation of freedom of expression, which had been one of the great achievements of the Tunisian revolution in 2011.

A presidential decree, known as Decree 54, is like a sword hanging over anyone who dares to criticize the regime. Journalist Shaza al-Hajj Mubarak was arrested and accused of undermining the good of the county, and insulting the president in what is known as “Instalingo” case.

Mubarak’s health has deteriorated, and she remains in detention despite repeated demands for her release. According to her lawyer, no evidence has been put forth related to the accusations.

Such charges have been widely used against activists and journalists to silence voices critical of the government, a tactic long used by repressive Arab regimes against their critics.

Photo of a woman holding up a sign in protest against the Tunisian president Kais Sayed.
A protest takes place outside parliament in Tunis against the Tunisian president Kais Sayed and the proposed amendment to the electoral law. – Hasan Mrad/IMAGESLIVE/ZUMA

Red lines

The current Tunisian leadership has crossed red lines that the previous governments tried to avoid. On May 11, security forces stormed the Bar Association to arrest lawyer Sonia Dahmani after she made a sarcastic statement in a television interview about African migrants.

She was accused of spreading false information under Decree 54, and was sentenced to one year in prison.

Dahmani is just one of dozens of journalists and rights activists who have been targeted by the “new Tunisia,” which we have not known for the past ten years. It’s the “new Tunisia” which is struggling to catch up with the old Arab regimes that threaten and detain their critics.

Renewed fear

I was sitting recently with an artist friend in a cafe near what is known as the “Ministry of Fear” — the Ministry of the Interior. My friend leaned over to me and said: ”I think I should stop publishing, I have never known this fear before … For many, the last ten years were not ideal, but there was not this feeling of anxiety and fear waiting behind every corner of Tunisia.”

Indeed my friend has been summoned multiple times for questioning on allegations of insulting the president. Each time, he was threatened with lengthy imprisonment and prevented from publishing his works.

All are talking about the same fear and uncertainty as we wait for whatever will be the new presidential decrees, which will bring more arrests.

The race which was designed to guarantee the victory of the only candidate

In 2019, I was a member of an international team monitoring the Tunisian parliamentary and presidential elections in which Kais Saied ran for the county’s highest office as an “independent candidate.” At the time, he was described as “the savior of Tunisia.”

The elections were fair and transparent. Saied won the second round and the celebrations started in one city after another. The new president did not hide his dislike of the Tunisian quasi-parliamentary system.

Photo of Tunis during a plenary session in parliament to discuss a proposed amendment to the electoral law, just over a week before the October 6 presidential election.
Several protests have been taking place against the legislative proposal by the opposition and civil society who view the changes as a threat to democracy. – Hasan Mrad/IMAGESLIVE/ZUMA

​“New Tunisia”

But in July 2021, the “independent” president amended the constitution in a way that keeps him the only one who has absolute chances of winning.

Many of those who’d supported the new president in the 2019 elections became the opposition, and too many of them today are in prison. This is what an Arab dictatorship looks like.

The Independent High Commission for Elections appointed by the president (it was previously appointed by the parliament) intended to exclude presidential hopefuls one after another under the pretext of not completing the required public authorizations or obtaining the authorizations “in an illegal manner.”

Many hopefuls have been arrested or thrown out of the race which was designed to guarantee the victory of the only candidate: Saied.

With results now confirming this, Tunisia is heading toward a very uncertain future.

Yes, a new dictatorship is emerging, and this is sadly what we call the “new Tunisia.”

*Originally published October 4, 2024, this article was updated October 7, 2024 with news about the Tunisian election, as well as enriched media.