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TOPIC: arab spring

Future

Collateral Tech Damage Of Hamas Attack: The Final Demise Of Twitter

Elon Musk has been criticized before for his management of Twitter, now known as X. But it was not until Saturday that the social network revealed just how inept and dangerous it had become, as fake news spread far and wide. It may never recover.

-Analysis-

No, Twitter didn't end on July 24, 2023 — that's when Elon Musk, seemingly out of the blue, decided it would be called X.

Twitter, as we'd come to know it and appreciate its usefulness, died on the morning of October 7, following the surprise terror attack by Hamas and the Israeli response. The platform's deeper transformation of the past months was revealed to us that day, in all its ugliness: Rather than a natural evolution, Twitter has experienced a ghastly genetic mutation.

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X has failed to live up to Musk's old dream of a single app that does everything for everyone. But X has also become something far from the once-loved social network that invented microblogging in 2006, helping users share their insights into the world in 140 characters.

The little blue bird today is an unrecognizable beast. It's like a public intersection without traffic light and signs, and chances are you've also heard the sound of the crashes on your timeline.

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The Brave Return Of Syria's Opposition Sends Assad Running Back To Russia And Iran

Syria is positioned to return to the geopolitical fold in the Arab world, but the political structure inside the country is still fractured, facing protests from its citizens and the need to call in the Russian air force and Iranian backers.

-Analysis-

PARIS — When a country drops off from the news radar, it doesn't necessarily mean that all is fine. Syria made headlines for years with the brutal repression of the 2011 uprising and the war against the Islamic State; nowadays, it's hardly mentioned anymore, even if the state of the country is still dire.

Yet over the past few weeks, a new rumbling of reports about the Syrian situation has begun. In the southern part of the country, major demonstrations began in the city of Suweida, initially against rising fuel prices before evolving into more political protests. The protests spread to the city of Daraa, where the 2011 revolution had originally begun, as well as other localities. Among the popular demands were questions about the fate of those who've disappeared over the last decade, a pressing issue for millions of Syrians.

Videos that have circulated show significant sized crowds, reminiscent of the scenes from the early days of the 2011 uprising during the "Arab Spring." Considering the repression that followed, it is impressive to once again see the population taking to the streets to defend their rights, facing a regime that has shown it will not hesitate to brutally suppress them.

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Unpacking Erdogan's Charm Offensive In The Gulf (It's Complicated)

Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent tour of Gulf states is proof that the Turkish president aims to repair his country's diplomatic ties in the region, all the while looking for investment for Ankara's floundering economy. Quite the reversal of fortunes considering that not so long ago Gulf countries faced accusations of sponsoring the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey.

ISTANBUL — After traditional stops in Turkish-occupied Northern Cyprus and Azerbaijan, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently went on an official tour of Arabian Gulf countries, highlighting the importance he pays to the region. The Turkish markets were promptly boosted by news of economical collaboration and investment opportunities.

The goal of Erdogan’s rushed visits to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar is obvious: it's the economy, stupid, no matter how much government pundits try to argue that both sides are looking for multidimensional collaborations. Turkey needs foreign investments, and the sooner, the better.

The easiest doors to knock on are those of the deep-pocketed kingdoms and emirates of the Gulf. Qatar, especially, is an emirate that Turkey has been close to even at its loneliest times, but relations between the two countries have been rather problematic lately. The Gulf countries, in particular, were not so long ago presented by government-friendly media in Turkey as the sponsors of a coup attempt in 2016 against the Turkish president. However, problems date back from even before that, when the coup in Egypt unfolded.

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Tunisia, Between Arab Spring Nostalgia And An Age-Old Dilemma Of Democracy

The arrest this week of top opposition leaders shows Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed is drifting ever farther away from basic democratic practices. Yet there's no mass uprising, unlike in 2011, perhaps because economic factors are foremost on people's minds.

-Analysis-

TUNIS — When officials in Washington' look at the Tunisian experiment in democracy, it appears to be a distressed ship, listing and heading straight for an iceberg where the invisible part is always far bigger than what's visible. The damage from a collapse of Tunisia can spill over into neighboring countries. The problem, in other words, is not only Tunisian.

Without explicitly saying so, experts and observers present in Washington for the IMF Spring Meetings are convinced that the crew at the helm in Tunisia is rather emotional, without a roadmap, and above all, carrying out projects that often lack basic rationality.

Certainly, it is a harsh judgment, but not for nothing! And for good reason, the democratic model, established since Day One of the birth of the Arab Spring in 2011, confronts Tunisians (expatriates and locals alike) with an uncomfortable and divisive dilemma.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Violence In Sudan, And One More Democratic Uprising In Vain

More than a decade after the Arab Spring gave hope of a wave of democracy in North Africa and beyond, the violence that has erupted in Sudan squashes hope in that troubled nation of a democratic future.

-Analysis-

PARIS — A few months ago, when we still wanted to believe that the Arab Spring was not completely dead, we were careful about mentioning Sudan and Tunisia. News was coming in from Tunisia, where that wave of democratic revolutions had begun more than a decade ago, that the North African country had taken a worrying authoritarian turn with President Kaïs Saïed. And now in Sudan, violence has erupted over the past two days between two military branches that has left dozens dead.

Sudan, a huge country bridging both the Arab and African worlds, joined the second wave of democratic uprisings in 2018. The country had been under the rule of an Islamist dictator, Omar Al-Bashir, for three decades. The impressive demonstrations led by all segments of society led to Bashir being overthrown by the army in 2019.

Since then, Sudan has been trying to find a path between the demands of its active and well-structured civil society and the army, which refuses to yield power. On Saturday, a showdown broke out between two armed forces. Among the victims were many civilians and aid workers caught in the crossfire.

Two strong men at the head of a country is one too many. The same goes for two armies.

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Geopolitics
Johannes Jauhiainen

Tunisia’s New Constitution And Risks Of A Return To “Presidential Dictatorship”

In the cradle of the Arab Spring, democracy is once again at stake.

Modern Tunisia has adopted three different constitutions. The first two were linked to proud moments in the nation’s history: independence from France in 1956, and the fruit of the 2011 Arab Spring pro-democracy movement that ousted strongman President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who had ruled the country for almost 24 years.

The adoption of a third constitution, which Tunisians were called to vote on in a referendum on Monday, has been a very different story. Though exit polls report that more than 90% of those voting approved the new constitution, the referendum saw a low turnout of just above 30% after the major political parties boycotted the vote.

Still, with no minimum turnout required or expected legal challenges to the referendum results, by Saturday Tunisia is set to be governed by the new constitution when the final results of the referendum are announced.

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Economy
Frida Dahmani, Hossam Rabie, Nina Kozlowski, and Rania Hamdi

Ukraine War, North African Food Shortages And Whiff Of A New Arab Spring

Rising tensions in wheat productions, explosion of oil prices, fear of the unknown, could the Ukraine war lead to a popular Arab uprising similar to the one in 2011?

TUNIS — History tells us that in 2010-2011 the rise in prices for raw materials, especially wheat, was one of the main causes of the uprisings that spread across the Arab world.

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Today, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is putting many of the world's economies dependent on wheat imports to the test, notably in North Africa. This prompts the question: Could there be a second “Arab Spring?”

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Future
Laura-Maï Gaveriaux

The Mirage Of Egypt’s New Capital City

In an area the size of Singapore, Egypt is building its new capital. Constructed under the close control of the military and the head of state, the city embodies the grand ambitions of an increasingly autocratic president. But will it turn out to be a ghost city?

CAIRO — The concrete structure rises to a height of 1,263 feet (385 meters) on the edge of an expressway, where asphalt, as soon as it is laid down, lets out acrid fumes. With its double collar that licks the sky, the Iconic Tower is already the tallest building in Africa. It is also the flagship of this vast assembly of open-air construction sites over 450 square miles, an area the size of Singapore, which will be the location of the new Egyptian capital.

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Geopolitics
Laura-Mai Gaveriaux

Tunisia's Drift From Democratic Revolution To Authoritarianism

The Tunisian president is cultivating his ambiguities and pushing his constitutional reform, without proposing a roadmap to get the country out of the crisis. Refusing to speak to the media, he has an increasingly populist tone with messianic accents.

-Analysis-

TUNIS — President Kaïs Saïed likes to surprise. Everyone expected an event on December 17 to mark the 11th anniversary of the founding event of the revolution, the immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi. It was finally in a speech on television on the evening of December 13 that Saïed announced that parliament would remain for a year until the next general elections, using a new electoral law — which amounts to a de-facto dissolution of the parliament. Only one thing is certain: he retains the full powers he assumed on July 25.

Until then, Tunisians are invited to vote on a constitutional reform project, an "electronic popular consultation" that will be held from January to March and will be sanctioned by a referendum in July 2022. Because according to the tenant of Carthage, the current semi-presidential regime based on the 2014 constitution is the source of all the ills from which Tunisia suffers.

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Geopolitics
Mohamed Tozy

Autopsy Of The Muslim Brotherhood's Failed Political Project

A decade after the Arab Spring, the Islamist political movement driven by the Muslim Brotherhood, from Egypt to Morocco and beyond, continues to flirt with more extreme Salafist elements to build popular support — and continues to show its utter incapacity to properly run a national government.

-Analysis-

The momentous setback of the Moroccan Justice and Development Party (PJD) this past September has had everyone in the political world talking, including Islamists themselves. Abdelilah Benkirane, the former prime minister who returned as the head of the party following an extraordinary congress on Oct. 30, emphasized the responsibility of the party itself in this defeat, including "internal quarrels and renouncing the values of Islam and the fundamentals of Islamist militancy, including selflessness."

The outgoing party leaders, instead, described the defeat as a kind of puzzle, even leaving the doors open to "deep state" conspiracy theories.

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Ideas
Sophie Amsili

Tunisia, An Ambiguous Role Model For Women's Rights In The Arab World

Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed caused a stir by appointing Najla Bouden, the first female head of government in the Arab world. But as the president has assumed full powers a decade after the launch of the Arab Spring, it is a choice with a mixed message.

TUNIS — On Najla Bouden's recent visit to Paris to participate in a conference on Libya, every step was being watched closely. The new head of the Tunisian government appeared both at ease and discreet. Her public agility may explain why Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed chose Bouden for this position with limited political weight, two-and-a-half months after he took full powers of the North African nation, where the Arab Spring began a decade ago.

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Ideas
Carl-Johan Karlsson

Gaddafi And Marcos Jr., When A Dictator’s Son Runs For President

Over the past few weeks, the offspring of two of the 20th centuries most ruthless strongmen have announced they'd like to become the (democratically elected) leaders of Libya and the Philippines.

-Analysis-

PARIS — The son of the brutal Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi announced this week he is running for president, which follows a similar headline last month from Ferdinand Marcos Jr. What does this say about the state of democracy?

It was about a half-century ago that two of the most brutal dictatorships of the modern era began.

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