-Analysis-
AMMAN — Since the Nov. 5 election, a large dark folder has landed on the desks of Jordan’s foreign policy leadership. Inside are dozens of official papers between Jordan and the United States that defined their respective positions on what has become known as the “Deal of the Century,” the Middle East peace plan formulated by Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, during his first term.
While Trump’s plan remains only partially implemented, through the Abraham Accords with other Arab nations, it is ever more complicated by the Palestinian issue. It is also too early to say what the wider regional impact will be of the fast-moving events in Syria, where the brutal Assad regime has just been overthrown after some 50 years in power.
Still, it is those files from five years ago that have become a general guide to the list of expectations that will come when the President-elect returns to the White House on January 20.
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Trump will come into office having vowed in his campaign to “end all the wars of the world,” which include but are not limited to those in our region. Experts agree that he will try to resolve the Palestinian cause by returning to the “Deal of the Century” which essentially is translated as economic peace in exchange for Arab normalization of ties with Israel.
At the time, it was rumored that the Kushner deal was based on forcing the Palestinians to make unfair concessions in favor of Israel. Those concessions included a type of Palestinian self-rule that could develop into a confederation project with Jordan. But Kushner’s plan was thwarted by Jordanian King Abdullah II, who viewed the confederation option as an existential threat to his throne and kingdom.
Jordan’s three NOs
Jordan insisted on establishing an independent Palestinian state, and acting as policeman to protect internal security in the future Palestinian entity in the Kushner plan.
At that time, Abdullah had set three red lines: no settlement in Jordan, no displacement, and no interference in the Kingdom’s historical role as the custodian of the Muslim and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem. This was followed by Jordanian statements that any displacement to Jordan would be classified as a declaration of war against the kingdom.
However, the position of the Jordanian public could quickly shift if Jordan is forced to change its position in order to deal with Trump. It’s worth noting that the majority of Jordanians have shifted to supporting the option of armed resistance since the start of the Israeli war on Gaza.
Abraham Accords, limited
After spearheading Abraham Accords deals with United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, the new Trump administration is likely to try to bring other Arab countries into the club of normalizers, including Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia.
We have to accept that the two-state solution will not be as what we previously expected.
A government official in Amman said that Jordan, in the second Trump term, should look at the positive aspects of Kushner’s economic plan to improve the domestic situation and try to benefit from giant infrastructure projects and railways that the plan offers.
However, a Jordanian politician with knowledge of the official closed-door discussions said that Jordan is entering a “difficult, worrying and potentially painful phase” as the Zionist expansionist agenda will be implemented.
“Unfortunately, we have to accept that the two-state solution will not be as what we previously expected,” the government source said. “The Palestinian state may be small and unable to survive and continue without relying on neighboring countries…or there may be nothing.”
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the internal situation, said the Palestinians “must also accept this and improve their performance as a Palestinian Authority.”
All of this will provoke the majority of Jordanians who are living amid dire conditions, deteriorating infrastructure and public services, unprecedented government debt, and ongoing debate over national identity.
It is worth noting that a large percentage of the population are Palestinian-Jordanians; many of them are registered as Palestinian refugees with the UNRWA, the United Nations agency overseeing Palestinian affairs. The issue of their nationality will not be decided until an independent Palestinian state is established within the borders of the territories occupied in the 1967 war.
Trump’s picks
Between the first and second Trump terms, much has changed in the American-Israeli political scene due to the rise of the far-right. Trump himself no longer believes in the two-state solution. He believes that Israel is small and needs to be expanded.
The president-elect has already chosen the four key figures to work on the Middle East files: the Secretary of State, Washington’s ambassadors in Tel Aviv and the United Nations, and his personal envoy to the Middle East.
These figures are largely in harmony with the ambitions of the Israeli expansionist right, which today controls the government and the security establishment.
Mike Huckabee, Trump’s pick for the US ambassador in Israel, is a “Talmudic” ideologue, who stated that there are no people called Palestinian, and no land called the West Bank, but rather Judea and Samaria, which is supposed to be the land of Israel.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich recently said that 2025 will be the year that Israel annexes the West Bank.Thus, Israel may soon begin implementing the first part of its plan to annex Area C in the West Bank and eventually forcefully transfer the Palestinians to Jordan, which will violate the longstanding peace deal between Israel and Jordan. In return, It would be easy to try to deport about 250,000 Palestinians who hold Jordanian citizenship to their mother country – the Palestinian territories.
Waltz could be the key.
Jordan counts on Senator Mike Waltz, who Trump picked to be his National Security Advisor. Waltz is a veteran who served in the US Army’s Special Forces in combat missions that included Afghanistan, the Middle East and Africa. Waltz will be the key in formulating strategies to resolve the issues that Trump inherited from the Biden administration.
It is true that Waltz is considered one of the hawks hostile to China and NATO, but he is aware of the sensitivities of the Middle East. He is also married to an American woman of Jordanian origin who introduced him to Jordan’s history and culture.
“Waltz could be the key to balancing America’s strategic interests, protecting its national security and the security of its allies in the region, including Jordan, and the Zionist expansionist agenda,” said a Western diplomat in Amman. He said that agenda threatens the interests of America’s strategic allies as well as U.S. bases in the region.
“It will be possible to reach an understanding with him, unlike other ideological figures,” said the diplomat who demanded anonymity to discuss the topic.
The Saudi question
King Abdullah may also benefit from his close ties with U.S. House members, which have developed in recent years, as well as his close relationship with the military and intelligence institutions. He will need those ties as the upcoming challenge is the most serious since he assumed power 25 years ago.
Jordan’s peace treaty which the king’s father reached with Israel was marketed to the skeptical Jordanians, as having buried the option of establishing an alternative homeland for the Palestinians in Jordan forever.
Jordan is a country with a strong identity that does not gamble with its future.
Today, the treaty has become the primary source of threat to Jordan’s national security and internal stability, amid growing demands to review or cancel it.
A few days ago, the Jordanian monarch addressed lawmakers including Islamists who opposed the peace deal with Israel. He determined the political reference that Jordan will adopt.
The King said firmly and clearly: “Jordan is a country with a strong identity that does not gamble with its future.”
Still, the government source acknowledged that things have changed in Washington. “We cannot continue to say no… no… no… to the new administration, as we did with Trump in his first term, in order to protect the rights of the Palestinians,” he said. “We can focus on the duality: as the Palestinians have the right to a state, Jordan has the right to enjoy security and stability, and this requires a clear separation of the two paths.”
Today, Jordan is betting on Saudi Arabia, which has restated that it will only sign on to the Deal of the Century and a future peace with Israel if there is a bonafide solution to the Palestinian cause. Amman is just hoping that its counterparts in Riyadh agree that the Abraham Accords go forward or get stuck with our without both nations.
