-Analysis-
BRUSSELS — The European elections began this Thursday with voters going to the polls in the Netherlands and will close on Sunday at 11 p.m. in Italy. Around 360 million electors are called to cast a vote, and for 26 million of them it will be the first time. The 720 members of European Parliament (MEPs) elected will co-legislate with member states on the vast majority of European policies.
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The vote is taking place against a tense international backdrop: the war in Ukraine, an unstable situation in the Middle East, China seeking to sell its overcapacity in Europe, and Donald Trump‘s possible return to the White House in November. In response, EU leaders plan to adopt a strategic agenda at the end of the month focused on the continent’s security and industrial competitiveness.
Extremists on the rise
Yet in many member states, the largest contingent of MEPs is likely to come from nationalist or Eurosceptic formations likely to stand in the way of this program. These anti-establishment parties include France’s Rassemblement National (RN) and Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) came second on Thursday evening, just behind the left-wing Green-Labor bloc.
These parties will sit in different parliamentary groups in the coming legislature: the European Conservatives and Reformists (ERC, which includes the Fratelli d’Italia, Vox from Spain and Swedish Democrats) and Identity and Democracy (ID, which includes the RN from France, Vlaams Belang from Belgium and FPÖ from Austria).
The ECR and ID could obtain a total of 150 seats in the new parliament. That does not include the seats of the German AfD party, which was recently kicked out of the ID group.
Fragile majority
The outgoing “von der Leyen” majority, named after the President of the outgoing Commission who relied on it, occasionally agreed to work with ECR elected representatives deemed to be agreeable, but always excluded ID from the decision-making process.
Ursula von der Leyen is open to collaborating with other parties.
The majority alliance, composed of the conservative European People’s Party (EPP), Socialists & Democrats (S&D) and the centrist Renew Europe groups should manage to secure a majority of seats, but it is vulnerable to the evaporation of some traditional MEPs. Party discipline is, with some exceptions, weaker in the European Parliament than in national assemblies.
For this reason, Ursula von der Leyen, who’s seeking a second mandate as president of the European Commission, is open to collaborating with other parties, as long as these are “pro-EU, pro-Ukraine and respect the rule of law.” She has named some parties that do not meet those criteria (RN and AfD) but has stayed silent on which parties do.
A tight equation
Yet, von der Leyen includes in her list of possible allies the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, with whom she has cultivated a close relationship presenting some ambiguities. Her socialist and liberal allies, who have already warned her against dubious collaborations, make the outgoing president’s equation particularly tight.
The centrists were the linchpin of the von der Leyen majority, regularly arbitrating on sensitive issues.
If the EU27 decide to reappoint von der Leyen (the president is nominated by the European Council and elected by the European Parliament) at the end of June, she will have to negotiate the details of her political program with the parliamentary groups. The groups’ boundaries will likely be fluid.
EPP leader Manfred Weber has for example tried to get the Czech ODS party, currently in the ECR group, to switch to his group. Renew will have to decide whether to retain the Dutch VVD party, now part of a coalition government with the far-right at the national level.
Weaker center
The centrists are set to lose about 20 seats in the next parliament and part of their leverage with it. For the past five years they were the linchpin of the von der Leyen majority, regularly arbitrating on sensitive issues. French MEPs will be less numerous within Renew, and poorly represented in the EPP and S&D groups.
The European Greens are also likely to suffer heavy losses, despite the fact that many of their ideas became reality under the Green Deal.
The results of the elections will also impact the European Council, one of the three pivotal bodies of the EU (together with the Parliament and the Commission) composed of the 27 heads of state and government.
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will have to acknowledge the disappointing results of their respective parties, Renew and S&D. Because of recent electoral development Renew has lost former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and is set to lose its Belgian seat as well, with elections coming up in the country on June 9.
