–Analysis–
SÃO PAULO — There’s a growing phenomenon in political science known as “the incumbent crisis.”
It’s not hard to understand. In the past, those in power in democratic societies had a clear advantage in reelection bids — not just because of their visibility, influence and authority, but also because they could claim credit for successful policies.
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Yet for at least the past decade, getting reelected has become increasingly difficult for incumbent political leaders, no matter how well they govern. Opposition candidates, meanwhile, are performing better than ever at the polls. It’s as if the protest vote has become the norm.
Felipe Nunes, professor of political science at Brazil’s Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), describes this shift as “the end of gratitude” in a recent article for daily Folha de São Paulo. Analyzing the dip in approval ratings for Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, his research suggests that the phenomenon is both structural and global, rather than temporary or localized .
“Social benefits and income growth used to translate into electoral support,” Nunes writes. “But that logic is crumbling. There’s no longer an automatic sense of political gratitude. Society has changed — voters have become more critical and less loyal.”
Decline of “economic” voting
This presents a real dilemma for Lula’s current administration, which operates in a traditional, old-school way. Objectively speaking, there have been strong economic results: 3% GDP growth last year despite relentless pessimism from market analysts, record low unemployment, new social programs and even several long-stalled reforms — like tax reform — finally getting through Congress.
Yet, as Nunes points out, the so-called “economic vote” is no longer a given.
The same thing has happened in the United States. Joe Biden’s presidency was competent, especially compared to the chaos of the Donald Trump years and the fallout of the pandemic. But today, none of that translates into electoral support.
“Leaders around the world are struggling to maintain popular backing throughout their terms,” Nunes writes.
Of course, we’re living through a series of crises at once. Inflation is hitting countries that have rarely dealt with it, like those in Europe and the U.S., while food prices are soaring across the globe.
Algorithms provide different search results to different users, reinforcing a fragmented reality
But here in Brazil, we’ve seen tough times before. So, let’s zoom in on two under-discussed factors that might be influencing this shift: the mass adoption of internet platforms and our over-reliance on social media.
Living in isolation
The first is what a friend of mine calls “neo-Calvinism” — a hyper-individualistic way of seeing society.
Neoliberal ideologies, workplace competition and labor deregulation explain part of it. But the algorithm-driven nature of modern life also plays a role.
The collapse of mass communication — when people consumed the same cultural products and shared the same news — has led to an increasingly isolated worldview. Google’s ever-changing algorithms provide different search results to different users, reinforcing a fragmented reality where each person’s truth is shaped by their own data history.
We’re no longer building society first and then the economy — we’re doing the opposite, tailoring reality to fit the most intimate consumer impulses.
Self-identifying as an “introvert” has become a badge of honor.
But what kind of society is this algorithm-driven world creating?
In my spare time (yes, I do have some), I browse forums like Reddit, which still thrive on user-generated content and effective moderation, unlike the digital shopping malls that Instagram and other platforms have become.
One recurring theme, especially among young users, is that the ideal life consists of being alone in bed, browsing the internet, with a cat by your side. Memes glorify avoiding “social anxiety” and “awkward” small talk, while self-identifying as an “introvert” has become a badge of honor.
The trend is clear: forming real-life social bonds isn’t just a lower priority — it’s actively discouraged.
Unhappy people
This brings me to the second key point: as a society, we’re deeply unhappy.
Throughout history, there have been cultural moments where melancholy was fashionable, or when rapid change led to widespread anxiety. But our sadness today feels different — it’s by design, deliberately engineered through digital architecture meant to keep us tethered to our screens.
Most people are vaguely aware of this by now, but it’s worth repeating: social media — and increasingly even search engines — are designed to overstimulate dopamine production, the brain’s pleasure-driving neurotransmitter.
This “motivational molecule” fuels repeated behavior, making us crave more of what triggered it. Social platforms are built to exploit this cycle, keeping us hooked on digital validation and human interaction via screens. That’s why we instinctively reach for our phones every few minutes — it’s a compulsive search for the next dopamine hit.
Many studies confirm that we’re living in a generation addicted to dopamine.
On one hand, we’re in the midst of an unprecedented mental health crisis, hitting children and teenagers hardest. On the other, research — such as that of Stanford addiction expert Dr. Anna Lembke — suggests that overstimulation through excessive social media use actually lowers our natural dopamine production.
Ours is a country perpetually labeled as the “land of the future”
In other words, everyday life no longer delivers the same sense of joy it did for thousands of years. Life, quite literally, has lost its chemical spark.
Brazil, plugged-in
Of course, I may be oversimplifying incredibly complex issues, but consider this: 84% of Brazilians — roughly 160 million people — are internet users, making Brazil one of the world’s largest markets for digital platforms.
Facebook and TikTok each have over 100 million users in Brazil, while Instagram, YouTube, and WhatsApp all surpass 130 million. Brazilians are among the most plugged-in populations on Earth.
If there’s a link between the incumbents’ crisis and the mental health crisis engineered by social media, it makes perfect sense that Brazil — a country perpetually labeled as the “land of the future” — would feel its effects so acutely.
