Geopolitics

Deng To Xi, The Troubling 'Sovietization' Of China

Beijing seems to be abandoning the very strategy that allowed it to not only survive the collapse of the USSR, but also prosper.

Riot police during a rally in Hong Kong on June 12, 2020.
Dominique Moisi

-Analysis-

In the aftermath of the Tiananmen Square crackdown and on the eve, 30 years ago, of the collapse of the USSR, Chinese leaders emphasized the fundamental differences between the choices of Moscow and those of Beijing.

Under Gorbachev, the USSR favored political openness over economic reform. Deng Xiaoping's China took the exact opposite route. The USSR was on the verge of collapse, a victim of its contradictions and inability to follow the United States in an arms race that it could not afford to maintain. The Chinese regime stressed economic growth and maintained a low profile in its relations with the world. Following the lessons of Bismark, if not the advice of Henry Kissinger, China saw self-confidence and self-restraint as going hand in hand.

A re-emerging empire, China had some time to kill and could have humble success. With the uninterrupted growth of the economy, the main thing was to maintain the confidence of a society that lived better and longer. And yet, it now seems that China has forgotten these wise precepts, the very ideas that kept it so long from meeting the same fate as the USSR.

The parallels between today's China and yesterday's USSR are as fascinating as they are disturbing.

The coronavirus crisis gave us an accelerated and magnified view of the "sovietization" of China. In 1956 — in the middle of the Suez crisis and unbeknownst to the rest of the world — the USSR sent its tanks to control the Hungarian insurrection Budapest. Decades later, the pandemic is arguably the Beijing equivalent of the Suez crisis for the USSR.

COVID-19 has given China a sense of impunity to accelerate its transformation of Hong Kong's legal status and also demonstrates, like with the Russian annexation of Crimea six years ago, that treaties like borders are meant to be questioned. While the Chinese government seemed to have patience for the resistance in Hong Kong, it was really only waiting for the right moment, because it's clear, to Beijing that democracies now are no more ready to die for Hong Kong than they were for Danzig in 1938 or Prague in 1968.

The parallels between today's China and yesterday's USSR are as fascinating as they are disturbing. In the Himalayas, on the border with India, Chinese troops are "rectifying borders' using a military strategy known as "salami slicing," which was also used by the USSR in the late 1940s in certain countries in Eastern and Central Europe.

The tone of the "wolf warriors'— young Chinese diplomats whose main goal seems to be to take the opposing view against Deng Xiaoping — evokes the best hours of the Cold War. At the time, Soviet diplomacy had proclaimed: "What's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable," which the Chinese seem to have taken as inspiration.

China's "one country, two systems' formula — probably more applicable to Taiwan than Hong Kong — has stood the test of time. But to only be replaced by a "one system, two nations' approach? Only time will tell. And there's no guarantee China will benefit.

Chinese strategy isn't only dangerous for the balance of the rest of the world, but for China as well. In his book Peace and War: A Theory of International Relations, published in 1962, Raymond Aron summed up the Cold War with one formula: "Peace impossible, war improbable." Peace was impossible between the radically different ideologies of the United States and the USSR, but the balance of terror made war improbable.

Men collecting money to support Hong Kong protests. — Photo: Emilio Navas/SOPA Images/ZUMA

Does this same formula apply to today's confrontation between the United States and China? Is peace between two capitalist economies possible? Or is war between two self-doubting powers more probable?

Certainly there are notable differences between the Cold War of yesterday and the new one of today. In other words, America is no longer America, and China is more than the USSR. They exist in a world, furthermore, that is much more interdependent but for which the nuclear threat is more abstract.

Putting aside concern for the balance of the international system for a second, is China making the best choice by deliberately sacrificing its "soft power" in favor of its national ambitions for power? The timing seems off for such aggressive isolation, when America may very well be on the verge of regaining some "soft power" and confidence from allies with the election of a "more classic" president.

Is peace between two capitalist economies possible?

Donald Trump — through his unpredictability and extravagance — has encouraged China to move full speed ahead in its nationalist journey. His defeat in November could see China as the poor student of the world class, just ahead of Russia. The country would seem like an advocate for revisionism and lying in a world that is being made even more dangerous by it. Who knows when the coronavirus epidemic really began its spread in China: In winter? Autumn? The end of last summer?

What good has it been to invest in the United Nations and multilateralism, only to turn one's back on it with an imperative and provocative tone? China's overwhelming success in recent decades was the product of many factors, one of them being its openness to the world. China may have threatened Australia with heavy economic sanctions, but Chinese students have still benefited greatly from their time spent studying at Australian universities. Just as the West cannot "do without China," China can't "do without the world."

Thucydides considered hubris to be an important factor in the decline of the Greek city states. There is certainly a Chinese maxim that could serve as a warning in Beijing. China isn't the USSR. But it's certainly acting more and more like it.

*Dominique Moisi is a regular columnist and special advisor at the Montaigne Institute in Paris, France.

Support Worldcrunch
We are grateful for reader support to continue our unique mission of delivering in English the best international journalism, regardless of language or geography. Click here to contribute whatever you can. Merci!

La Sagrada Familia Delayed Again — Blame COVID-19 This Time

Hopes were dashed by local officials to see the completion of the iconic Barcelona church in 2026, in time for the 100th anniversary of the death of its renowned architect Antoni Guadí.

Work on La Sagrada Familia has been delayed because of the pandemic

By most accounts, it's currently the longest-running construction project in the world. And now, the completion of work on the iconic Barcelona church La Sagrada Familia, which began all the way back in 1882, is going to take even longer.

Barcelona-based daily El Periodico daily reports that work on the church, which began as the vision of master architect Antoni Gaudí, was slated to be completed in 2026. But a press conference Tuesday, Sep. 21 confirmed that the deadline won't be met, in part because of delays related to COVID-19. Officials also provided new details about the impending completion of the Mare de Déu tower (tower of the Virgin).

El Periódico - 09/22/2021

El Periodico daily reports on the latest delay from what may be the longest-running construction project in the world.

One tower after the other… Slowly but surely, La Sagrada Familia has been growing bigger and higher before Barcelonians and visitors' eager eyes for nearly 140 years. However, all will have to be a bit more patient before they see the famous architectural project finally completed. During Tuesday's press conference, general director of the Construction Board of the Sagrada Familia, Xavier Martínez, and the architect director, Jordi Faulí, had some good and bad news to share.

As feared, La Sagrada Familia's completion date has been delayed. Because of the pandemic, the halt put on the works in early March when Spain went into a national lockdown. So the hopes are dashed of the 2026 inauguration in what would have been the 100th anniversary of Gaudi's death.

Although he excluded new predictions of completion until post-COVID normalcy is restored - no earlier than 2024 -, Martínez says: "Finishing in 2030, rather than being a realistic forecast, would be an illusion, starting the construction process will not be easy," reports La Vanguardia.

But what's a few more years when you already have waited 139, after all? However delayed, the construction will reach another milestone very soon with the completion of the Mare de Déu tower (tower of the Virgin), the first tower of the temple to be completed in 44 years and the second tallest spire of the complex. It will be crowned by a 12-pointed star which will be illuminated on December 8, Immaculate Conception Day.

Next would be the completion of the Evangelist Lucas tower and eventually, the tower of Jesus Christ, the most prominent of the Sagrada Familia, reaching 172.5 meters thanks to an illuminated 13.5 meters wide "great cross." It will be made of glass and porcelain stoneware to reflect daylight and will be illuminated at night and project rays of light.

La Sagrada Familia through the years

La Sagrada Familia, 1889 - wikipedia

Support Worldcrunch
We are grateful for reader support to continue our unique mission of delivering in English the best international journalism, regardless of language or geography. Click here to contribute whatever you can. Merci!
THE LATEST
FOCUS
TRENDING TOPICS
MOST READ