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TOPIC: prigozhin

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Putinism Without Putin? USSR 2.0? Clean Slate? How Kremlin Succession Will Play Out

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, political commentators have consistently returned to the question of Putin's successor. Russia expert Andreas Umland foreshadows a potentially tumultuous transition, resulting in a new power regime. Whether this is more or less democratic than the current Putinist system, is difficult to predict.

-Analysis-

STOCKHOLM — The Kremlin recently hinted that Vladimir Putin may remain as Russia's president until 2030. After the Constitution of the Russian Federation was amended in 2020, he may even extend his rule until 2036.

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However, it seems unlikely that Putin will remain in power for another decade. Too many risks have accumulated recently to count on a long gerontocratic rule for him and his entourage.

The most obvious and immediate risk factor for Putin's rule is the Russian-Ukrainian war. If Russia loses, the legitimacy of Putin and his regime will be threatened and they will likely collapse.

The rapid annexation of Crimea without hostilities in 2014 will ultimately be seen as the apex of his rule. Conversely, a protracted and bloody loss of the peninsula would be its nadir and probable demise.

Additional risk factors for the current Russian regime are related to further external challenges, for example, in the Caucasus. Other potentially dangerous factors for Putin are economic problems and their social consequences, environmental and industrial disasters, and domestic political instability.

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Special Report: Wagner's Prison Recruits Accused Of 19 Murders Since Returning From War

An investigation by the Russian publication Agents Media finds that a number of Russian criminals who were granted amnesty in exchange for fighting in Ukraine have returned home and have been implicated in violent crimes — including more than a dozen murders.

Updated Oct. 6, 2023 at 6 p.m.

Russian military and paramilitary personnel who have returned from the front line in Ukraine have been implicated in a series of violent crimes, in which 27 people have been killed.

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According to an investigation by the Russian independent news site Agentsvo Media, these incidents involve at least 20 separate criminal cases, with former members of the Wagner mercenary militia being accused in the majority of these incidents.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the late founder of Wagner, stunned many last year inside Russia by confirming that he was recruiting from the nation's prisons to have convicted criminals join his troops in Ukraine. Part of the offer to prisoners: in exchange for fighting in the war, you will earn permanent freedom.

Fears of that amnesty backfiring across Russian society are now proving a reality, with this exclusive tally of violent crimes committed in just a few months after the convicts' return from the front in Ukraine.

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How The Kremlin Has Shut Out Wagner Fighters From War Hero Status And Veteran Benefits

They were offered high salaries, promises of honor, and state welfare. But Wagner Group fighters say Russia treated them like pariahs after they returned from the war in Ukraine.

Reports late last month have confirmed that soldiers from the Wagner Private Military Company have returned to the frontlines in Ukraine. Inside Russia, despite the deaths of its leaders, Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, the group continues to recruit mercenaries. The new leadership of Wagner entices potential recruits with familiar tactics — offering high salaries, patriotic discourses and dreams of heroism.

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And yet a deepening disillusionment prevails among former Wagner Group fighters, who have faced difficulties obtaining the benefits they were promised. Many have returned from Ukraine with injuries and have been unable to secure disabled status, veteran's certificates, state-funded treatment, or other entitlements pledged to all war participants.

"I returned home in April,” says 38-year-old Alexander from the Bryansk region, whose name has been changed for security reasons. “I stayed at home for a month because I was afraid to go outside. I was wounded, they took out some of the shrapnel and sent me to the front again. There are still fragments in my hand, it is rotting.”

Alexander says he went to the military registration and enlistment office to explain that he had earned a medal for courage, which should give him the right to obtain a veteran’s certificate. "They told me that there are no regulations for obtaining veteran status. I asked: 'What about the presidential decree?' They told me: 'Come on, get out of here.' So I left."

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Wagner Group 2.0: Why Russia's Mercenary System Is Here To Stay

Many had predicted that the death last month of Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin meant the demise of the mercenary outfit. Yet signs in recent days say the private military outfit is active again in Ukraine, a reminder of the Kremlin's interest in continuing a private fighting formula that has worked all around the world.

-Analysis-

“Let’s not forget that there is no Wagner Group anymore,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had declared. “Such an organization, in our eyes, does not exist.”

The August 25 statement from came less than two days after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the infamous Russian mercenary outfit, as questions swirled about Wagner's fate after its crucial role in the war in Ukraine and other Russian military missions around the world.

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How could an independent military outfit survive after its charismatic founder's death? It seemed highly unlikely that President Vladimir Putin would allow the survival of a group after had launched a short-lived coup attempt in late June that most outside observers believe led to Prigozhin's private airplane being shot down by Russian forces on August 23.

"Wagner is over,” said the Kremlin critic and Russian political commentator Maksim Katz. “The group can’t keep going. There’s the possibility that they could continue in parts or with Defense Ministry contracts, but the group only worked with an unofficial agreement between Putin and Prigozhin.”

Yet barely a month later, and there are already multiple signs that the Wagner phoenix is rising from the ashes.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Agenstvo

Report: Wagner Group Is Back Fighting In Ukraine For First Time Since Aborted Coup

After a sighting by a Ukrainian drone operator, details emerge of how the Russian mercenary group has been redeployed in the strategic Ukrainian city of Bakhmut it had helped conquer earlier this year. That was followed by the dramatic coup and departure from Ukraine led by Wagner's now late leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Fighters affiliated with the Wagner Group have once again been spotted on the battlefield near Bakhmut in the Russian-occupied Donetsk region, according to a Ukrainian drone operator. This confirmation supports earlier reports from Russian sources regarding the resurgence of Wagner mercenaries near the strategic city in eastern Ukraine.

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“Wagner is here,” the drone operator said, adding that the Wagnerites had “quickly changed commanders and returned.”

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Pierre de Gasquet

Wagner Is Dead, Long Live Wagner! How Putin Plans To Push Deeper Into Africa, Post-Prigozhin

Wagner PMC has built up a powerful network on the African continent. It's one of the mercenary group's greatest assets — and now, a Kremlin takeover of Wagner could even strengthen its influence in Africa, including through the recent coups d'état in Niger and Gabon.

-Analysis-

"Prigozhin’s last thought was ‘Putin!’'’ That's how Boris Johnson imagines what was going through the mind of mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin during the 30-second plunge to the earth in his private jet.

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“I cannot think of another example of such ostentatious and uninhibited savagery by a world leader — not in our lifetimes," added the former British Prime Minister in an article in the Daily Mail.

After Prigozhin's death, the future of the Wagner group remains unclear. Renamed, or reshaped and brought back into line, it's a safe bet that, in one form or another, it will survive the elimination of its founders. Worse still, it may even emerge with its influence in Africa strengthened.

This is the thesis of the ambitious investigation, based on the work of the collective All Eyes On Wagner,that investigative journalists Lou Osborn and Dimitri Zufferey are about to publish with French group Editions du Faubourg.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Maria Zholobova

Video Feeds Speculation About Prigozhin's Death

After celebrated Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash, following his attempted coup against Russian President Vladimir Putin, some Wagner adherents are convinced Prigozhin is not dead. A video from Africa is adding fuel to the fire.

This article was updated on August 31, 2023 at 6:30 p.m.

ST. PETERSBURG — In front of the Wagner Center in St. Petersburg stands a memorial to former mercenary commander Yevgeny Prigozhin. The center, once heavily guarded, now lacks the usual security, allowing unrestricted access.

One by one, cars with tinted windows drive up to the memorial. A man in camouflage steps out of one. His partner, also in camouflage, struggles out of the back seat and pulls two metal crutches behind him. Both go to the memorial and lay out bouquets of red carnations. Refusing to answer questions, they silently go to the fence and look at the memorial through dark sunglasses.

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When questioned, those in attendance remain silent, or briefly talk about how “unfairly and cowardly” their boss was treated. Some rip the chevrons off their sleeves and put them on top of red carnations and roses.

In another car, two people arrive with flags embroidered with the Wagner emblem. They pick two people from the crowd and ask them to put banners on the flowers. One of them says that he used to work with Prigozhin. He does not give his name.

The men take out candles and begin to lay them out: 10 candles, to match the number of people who died in the crash. At this moment, a man in a black T-shirt with a red and yellow Wagner emblem appears from the crowd. He drags a sledgehammer behind him. "Why did you bring a sledgehammer?" someone asks. “Prigozhin liked sledgehammers; that’s why,” the man replies.

The crowd at the memorial grows. Whole families gather. A man gives his daughter a pair of red carnations and pushes her towards the collection of flowers. Mom and son approach the banner unfurled on the flowers. A woman calmly puts her hand on the flag, closing her eyes. Her child stands aside and watches in bewilderment.

A newly resurfaced video on Thursday of Prigozhin shows him in Africa just days before his death, where he is seen addressing speculation about his wellbeing and possible threats to his security. It is sure to add to speculation about whether he may still be alive.

"For those who are discussing whether I'm alive or not, how I'm doing - right now it's the weekend, second half of August 2023, I'm in Africa," Prigozhin says in the short video published by the Grey Zone Telegram channel which is linked to his Wagner Group. "So for people who like to discuss wiping me out, or my private life, how much I earn or whatever else - everything's ok." (See video below)

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In The News
Yannick Champion-Osselin, Valeria Berghinz and Katarzyna Skiba

Prigozhin Confirmed Dead, Zimbabwe’s “Crocodile” Reelected, Spanish Horses

👋 Bunâ!*

Welcome to Monday, where Russia says DNA tests confirm the death of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash last week, Zimbabwe’s “Crocodile” gets reelected amid accusations of vote manipulation, and Spain saddles up for its yearly horse festival. Meanwhile, Die Welt’s Fabian Peltsch touches base with Taiwan’s “Buddhist death metal” scene.

[*Romanian]

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Bartosz T. Wieliński

Gangster Logic, Is Prigozhin Hit The Start Of Putin's Ultimate Purge?

Veterans of Wagner PMC, the mercenary group run by now-deceased Yevgeny Prigozhin, are scattered all over Russia. Many are now threatening to exact their revenge. But it is Russian President Vladimir Putin who wields the power, and there are plenty inside and outside Wagner who may be in his sights.

-Analysis-

WARSAW — It’s a country within a country, with its own military and a wide network of veterans in every large Russian city. On Telegram, many Wagner mercenaries are already making threats, saying that the killing of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was the work of “traitors to Russia," who will soon face “catastrophic consequences."

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In The News
Valeria Berghinz, Chloé Touchard, and Marine Béguin

Putin on Prigozhin, Trump’s Mug, Greek Leap

👋 Chào!*

Welcome to Friday, where Vladimir Putin offers a chilling assessment of Yevgeny Priogohzin’s life and presumed death, Donald Trump’s mug shot is prime front page material and the World Track and Field Championships in Budapest offer some soaring images. We also feature a collection from Valeria Berghinz of some of the world’s most notable defunct vacation hot spots, which evoke the memories of bygone summers years after being abandoned.

[*Vietnamese]

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Vadym Denysenko

Vladimir Putin, And The Cruel Art Of Disposing Of Your Enemies

Yevgeny Prigozhin is gone, two months to the day of his aborted insurrection against the Russian military. The Wagner Group chief was likely killed in a plane crash on orders from the Kremlin. A piece written after Wagner's coup offers a reminder that Russia is in the hands of a man obsessed with control, who wields his cowardice as a weapon.

This article was updated Aug. 24, 2023 at 5:40 p.m.

-Analysis-

What did Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin really want two months ago when he launched then aborted an apparent coup attempt?

At most, perhaps, Prigozhin's goal was to capture Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu in Rostov-on-Don, and force him to write a letter of resignation or parade him around the southern city like a circus bear.

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But in the end, the Wagner boss got scared. He got scared of how far he had gone. It's one thing to launch a coup; it's another to wield real power. What would he do with it? Was he aiming to become president of Russia? No, with his prison background, this would have been impossible, even in a country like Russia, and he understood this.

What forced Prigozhin to act urgently back in June was the looming deadline of July 1, the date by which the mercenaries, according to the Russian authorities, had to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry. After Prigozhin was banned from recruiting prisoners, he began to run out of personnel. The 25,000 soldiers he claims would be only enough for another two months at that rate.

And that was it. The coup was over — but apparently not forgotten. Prigozhin is now presumed death after his plane crashed outside of Moscow late on Wednesday. Whether Putin was his ultimate nemesis two months, the Wagner chief paid the ultimate price for even leaving a trace of ambiguity.

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In The News
Yannick Champion-Osselin, Valeria Berghinz and Marine Béguin.

Prigozhin Presumed Dead, Six More BRICS, Brain-To-Speech Breakthrough

👋 Aloha!*

Welcome to Thursday, where Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is believed to have died in a plane crash north of Moscow, six new countries (including Iran) are invited to join the BRICS bloc, and a brain-to-speech breakthrough allows a paralyzed woman to speak for the first time in 18 years. Meanwhile, Worldcrunch’s very own Emma Albright reflects on the impacts of global warming that go beyond the natural disasters, including the added burden of working through the rising heat of summer.

[*Hawaiian]

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