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Future Geopolitics

The U.S.-China Tech War Is Slipping Toward A Point Of No Return

Beijing recently placed an export ban to the U.S. of two key metals. The move is a retaliation for U.S. bans of Chinese tech. The question remains of whether the superpowers can compromise before a total tech war breaks out.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Israel-Palestine, The Eternal Proof That Violence Is The Absence Of Politics

Israel’s military operation in Jenin is the latest escalation of bloodshed. Once again, the language of violence has prevailed because there is no political solution on the horizon.

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Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

She Was Investigating Russian War Crimes — Then One Killed Her

Writer and activist Victoria Amelina died from injuries sustained in a Russian missile strike on a restaurant in the eastern city of Kramatorsk. Her death is a cruel irony that reminds the world of both Moscow’s objectives, and tactics.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

From East And West, Two Ways To Scare Putin Off The Nuclear Option

Kyiv is accusing Russia of planning to blow up the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in eastern Ukraine, which would cause incalculable horror, and extend beyond the borders of Ukraine. But it may be messages in Beijing and Washington that can dissuade Vladimir Putin even more than exposing civilians, including Russians, to nuclear fallout.

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In The News

Putin’s Priority: Knowing Which Russian Generals He Can Trust

A rebel chief in exile, a top General arrested, a President waving at the crowd. While Putin is putting on a show in public, a large- scale investigation is cleaning house among the Russian military, one week after the Wagner group’s attempted coup.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Kramatorsk Or Khartoum? How Sudan’s War Victims Fade Into Oblivion

Why is the admirable funding for Ukraine not matched in Sudan, which now counts a stunning 2.5 million displaced people since fighting erupted two months ago? The West’s double standard of media attention must not be left to fester.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

For China, Putin’s Russia Has Become A Lesson In How Not To Exercise Power

There are many lessons to be taken from Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aborted uprising in the halls of power China. Going forward, Beijing will see Russia as a model on what to avoid in maintaining stability autocratic rule.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Wagner In Africa: How Prigozhin Could Also Upend Russian Foreign Policy

Prigozhin’s brief insurrection will be watched closely in many African countries, where Wagner mercenaries have largely been the beachhead for Russian foreign policy. Keep an eye on a key African-Russian summit next month.

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Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

Three Lessons From Wagner’s Insurrection — None Are Good News For The Tsar

The fate of Prigozhin, Putin and Ukraine hang in the balance. And though much is still not clear, Russia is simply no longer under the reign of an all-powerful Vladimir Putin.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Narendra Modi, A Modern Master Of Frenemy Diplomacy

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s triumph during his state visit to the U.S. is part of a well-honed strategy of realpolitik and geo-economic opportunism. How the West responds says a lot about where the world is heading.

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In The News

Can Macron’s “Creative” Diplomacy Fix The Rift Between The West And Global South?

French President Emmanuel Macron has called a unique summit that aims to reset relations between Western countries and the Global South. But the message from China and Russia will be not to trust such diplomatic maneuverings.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Navalny To Khodorkovsky, The Painful Limits Of Russia’s Opposition

The ongoing show trial of prominent Putin critic Alexei Navalny continues. Yet even in the face of totalitarianism, Russia’s opposition cannot present a united front.

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Geopolitics

The West Bank On Fire? Ask The ‘Pyromaniacs’ In Netanyahu’s Coalition

In the West Bank, tensions are at a new high after the death of a 15-year-old boy during a clash between Israeli forces and Palestinian protesters. The incident, coupled with the growing influence Israel’s far-right political figures and an intensified use of force, is pushing the region to a critical point.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Why Any Attempt At Ukraine Peace Is A Non-Starter Right Now

African leaders traveled to both Kyiv and Moscow to discuss a potential “peace plan” for the war in Ukraine. Predictably the envoys failed, and others will likely meet the same fate as Ukraine’s counteroffensive kicks into gear and Putin keeps digging in.

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Geopolitics

U.S. And China — In Search Of That Sort-Of Sweet Spot Called Détente

The U.S. Secretary of State is visiting Beijing — but even if it’s a sign of de-escalation, tensions remain high between the two sides, and it’s clear the détente has yet to arrive.

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Geopolitics

MBS Forever? The Saudi Crown Prince Is A Real Problem — And Here To Stay

The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is getting a warm reception after arriving in France for an extended stay. He has attempted to modernize his country’s image, but can the West turn a blind eye to deep moral problems in his leadership.

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Geopolitics War in Ukraine

Pacifism Is So ’80s! Why Military Budgets Are Exploding, Everywhere

Military spending has increased dramatically worldwide, driven by war in Ukraine and Chinese-Tawian tensions. With $2.24 trillion spent globally in 2022, the amount looks likely to continue to increase.

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Geopolitics

Soft Power, Hard Ball: Why The U.S. Wants Back In UNESCO

The U.S. is set to rejoin UNESCO, after Donald Trump pulled the country out in 2017, accusing it of being biased against Israel. The reasons for the return include artificial intelligence and pure geopolitics.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

A How-To Guide To Make Sense Of Ukraine’s Counteroffensive

Don’t believe each new twist, minute-by-minute, as information is a weapon that both sides handle carefully. But there are ways to begin to see how this possibly decisive battle will turn out.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

The Ukraine War, A Perfect Case Of The Limits Of The UN

Global politics have gotten in the way of humanitarian aid when it comes to the flooding in Ukraine. Zelensky points the finger towards a deep, structural UN shortcoming.

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Economy Geopolitics Ideas

Soft Power Or Sportwashing? What’s Driving The Mega Saudi Image Makeover Play

Saudi Arabia suddenly now leads the world in golf, continues to attract top European soccer stars, and invests in culture and entertainment… Its “soft power” strategy is changing the kingdom’s image through what critics bash as blatant “sportwashing.”

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In The News

How The Dam Destruction Will Impact Ukraine’s Counteroffensive — And What That Tells Us

When both sides of a conflict blame each other for something as important as the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, there’s only one way to understand what’s going on: find out who benefits from the crime.

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Future Society

The European Union v. AI — Good Luck On That!

The European Commission has asked digital platforms to create an “Artificial Intelligence label” to alert users of AI-generated texts, photos or videos. But will it be able to stop the tsunami of misinformation?

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In The News

Senegal’s Democratic Unrest And The Ghosts Of French Colonialism

The violence that erupted following the sentencing of opposition politician Ousmane Sonko to two years in prison left 16 people dead and 500 arrested. This reveals deep fractures in Senegalese democracy that has traces to France’s colonial past.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Too Soon, Too Late: What’s Really Blocking Ukraine’s Entry To NATO?

Volodymyr Zelensky has made his demand clear: full NATO membership for Ukraine, perhaps as soon as this year. Yet member countries, from the U.S. to top European allies, are still stuck in the mindset of not “provoking” Russia. But if not now, when?

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In The News

The Widest Europe: The Meaning Of Moldova In The Face Of Russian Aggression

Europe’s leaders are in Moldova as tensions increase with Russia and in Kosovo. The summit is already making an impact as Europe pushes back against Russian interference.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Drones On Moscow: Vladimir Putin On The Defensive Like Never Before

In another scenario, Putin could be bragging about Russia’s control of Bakhmut after nearly a year of fighting, and the bombing of the Ukrainian Intelligence’s headquarters, which was recently acknowledged by Kyiv. But instead he must retreat to the ultimate home front after drone attacks in the capital.

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In The News

Water War Or Religious Strife? Trouble At The Iran-Afghanistan Border

Iran and Afghanistan have long had a tense relationship. Recent skirmishes at their shared border indicate that conflict is escalating, but the causes are unclear.

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Geopolitics

What Five More Years Of Erdogan Mean For Turkey – And The World

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cemented his already tight grip on power in Turkey, winning an unprecedented third term as president. The West had hoped for a slightly less unpredictable leader, but they will have to make peace with an emboldened Erdogan, who may become even more autonomous.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Saudi Ambitions: Is MBS A New Nasser For The Middle East?

Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, is positioning the Saudi kingdom to be a global force of diplomacy in a way that challenges a longstanding alliance with Washington. But does the young prince have a singular vision for the interests of both his nation and the world?

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Future Ideas

Where Altman Meets Macron: The Quest For AI Alignment, Between Private And Public

The inventor of ChatGPT is in Europe to try to force leaders on the Continent to face hard questions about what artificial intelligence is bringing to our world, whether they like it or not.

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In The News

DeSantis, Trump, Twitter: The Medium (#Musk) Is The Message

Republican contender for the U.S. presidency launched his bid on Twitter in conversation with Elon Musk. But the move backfired after numerous technical glitches — not the best start to his campaign.

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Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

Russians Or Ukrainians — Or Both? Attacks Inside Russia Are A Major Escalation

While military attention was focused on the harshly contested city of Bakhmut, fights were reported on the other side of the border in Russian territory. But it was Russian groups that claimed responsibility.

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Geopolitics

How The U.S.-China Cold War Will Be Different — And Why Little Can Stop It

The just completed G7 in Hiroshima has locked both sides in the simmering Cold War in Asia into what appears an inevitable confrontation that recalls the U.S.-Soviet showdown. But there are key caveats that make both the limits and risks harder to anticipate.

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Geopolitics

Triumph Of Immunity: Why Assad’s Return To The Arab League Matters

Two pressing factors have weighed on the Arab League to reintegrate the accused war criminal: refugees and narcotics. But it speaks to a larger weakness of the international community to see that justice is carried out.

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Geopolitics Ideas

With Putin Shut Out, Xi Makes His Play For Central Asia — And Europe

Five former Soviet states have arrived for a key summit in China, and the absence of Vladimir Putin signals Central Asia’s desire to distance itself from Moscow — and China’s rising global dominance.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Can South Africa Be An Honest Broker For Peace In Ukraine?

After Beijing’s dubious push to lead negotiations on settling the war in Ukraine, now it’s South Africa’s turn. But its “ambiguous” neutrality on the war — and reports of secret weapons sales to Russia — raise serious skepticism in Kyiv and the West.

Categories
Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Pilots First, Then The Planes? The West Looks Ready To Break Major “Taboo” On Ukraine Arms

French President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement that France will train Ukrainian pilots appears to pave the way for the delivery of fighter jets to Kyiv. Similar moves are coming from the UK. It’s a delicate process to never declare war on Russia, while maximizing Ukraine’s ability to repulse the invaders.

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In The News

Turkey Elections: The Risk Of Escalation Has Multiplied

Both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his challenger, Kamel Kilicdaroglu, have cast doubt on the first round results. Heading into the second round on May 28, recalling recent examples, in the U.S. and Brazil, we may again see what happens when a populist is faced with giving up power.

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Geopolitics Ideas

The West Is Dreaming Of Erdogan’s Defeat, Very Quietly

Western leaders hope the end is coming for the reign of Turkey’s longtime leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but saying it too loudly is just too risky in geopolitical terms.

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