-Analysis-
PARIS — Another taboo has been broken. France will train Ukrainian fighter pilots, as announced by French President Emmanuel Macron Monday night in his interview on the TF1 television channel. The logical next step is to provide Mirage 2000 aircraft to the Ukrainian air force, but we haven’t reached that point yet.
[shortcode-Subscribe-to-Ukraine-daily-box]
It is however an important step forward in the commitment to Ukraine, and is in line with the logic of the last few months. It comes in addition to the Caesar guns, light armor, and air defense missile systems that France has already delivered and continues to supply to Ukraine.
Macron denied last night that there was any taboo on supplying aircraft. In fact, at each stage, since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukraine’s allies have weighed both the needs and capabilities of the Ukrainians, and the possible reaction of the Russians, before taking each new step.
The debate on aircraft began as soon as the decision was made, itself bitterly debated, to deliver tanks. Two months later, the step is being taken, and not only in Paris.
UK and F-16s
This decision has been agreed with the other NATO countries, and was one of the major points discussed during President Volodymyr Zelensky’s tour of European capitals in recent days. The United Kingdom will also train pilots, this time on American-made F-16s.
The presentation made last night by Macron says it all: “We are not at war with Russia,” the French President said. “We are helping Ukraine to resist the Russian assailant, which means that we are not delivering weapons that could reach Russian soil or attack Russia.”
That’s for the political spin. The reality is a bit different.
A matter of choice
The reality is that some of the weapons that have already been delivered can reach Russian territory. For example, the Caesar guns that fire at a distance of more than 35 kilometers: a French official pointed out to us that, placed near the border, they can clearly reach Russia. He added that the choice not to strike Russian territory with French weapons depended on commitments made in confidence by the Ukrainians, more than on the capacity of the weapons themselves.
The next stages of the war are being played out right now.
The UK has thus announced the delivery to Ukraine of long-range Storm Shadow missiles, firing up to 250 kilometers. The issue is exactly the same.
The next stages of the war are being played out right now. First of all, the counteroffensive about which the Ukrainian leaders are trying to calm expectations, but which will nevertheless be a decisive moment. And in the longer term, the Ukrainian army’s ability to influence the balance of power, if negotiations are to be opened.
At the same time, the issue of future security guarantees to Ukraine is being discussed in the run-up to the NATO summit in Vilnius in July. During Zelensky’s visit in Paris, France stated that “Ukraine has the right to choose its own security arrangements.”
However, Kyiv has already made it known that its choice is joining NATO, which has so far met with strong reservations in Paris.
Yes, a lot of taboos are falling at once.
