-Analysis-
PARIS — Unfortunately, there are no painless cures for all of what ails Europe.
Emmanuel Macron’s deep unpopularity eight years after first winning the French presidency shows that his plan to govern with policies considered abstractly fair, supported by a broad intellectual consensus, was an illusion of the times. Instead of defusing extremist protests from right and left, he only provided them with fuel.
Macron believed the wise course was to take the best, stripped of prejudice, from the proposals of both right and left. Then the need to provide adequate incentives to the private sector, so that France could regain dynamism, nudged him slightly to the right. Jean Pisani-Ferry, the moderate left-wing economist who had drafted his platform, distanced himself for that very reason.
Hopes were dashed not because the measures themselves were mistaken, but because their potential positive impact had been overestimated. Not only in France, ideas that enjoyed broad expert consensus proved, in practice, to deliver only modest results. This helps explain why the rise of the far right is so often described as a revolt of the “non-experts.”
Signs of dynamism
On a smaller scale, we saw something similar in Italy with the “Jobs Act” 11 years ago of the government of centrist Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. The effect on employment was positive, as the figures showed and as the lack of interest in last June’s referendum indirectly confirmed. Yet the results fell far short of expectations, and failed to dispel the trade union criticism from spread across the country.
France has recovered some dynamism in its private sector (Mistral, for instance, is the only AI company in Europe with any real weight), but this has not been enough to silence the protests of powerful entrenched interests. Was greater force required? Not even a parliament of loyalists, like the one Macron had from 2017 to 2022, would have passed measures so disruptive.
A paradise inhabited by people who believe they are in hell.
There was recklessness everywhere in assuming that a little more market freedom, competition, and labor flexibility would quickly boost growth with little or no sacrifice for anyone.
What Draghi wants
The Draghi report of European competitiveness remains largely unimplemented because it would demand sacrifices from extremely powerful corporations, perhaps even from entire ruling classes in each country.
Seen through Italian eyes, life in France looks enviable: the healthcare system works, people retire early, education is almost free and, in principle, not class-based. Yet the country also voices overwhelming demands for a better life. This week’s street demonstrations reinforce the common view, widespread among foreigners around the world, that it is “a paradise inhabited by people who believe they are in hell.”
But we should be cautious about the risk. Even the euro, Pisani-Ferry himself admits, “is a success that has not delivered all the desired results.” The French far right still finds it easy to target the single currency. There are even those in France who believe that Europe’s high public debt is the fault of its institutions, too lenient with Paris while harsh with Athens. A euro without Greece could be imagined — a euro without France is unthinkable.