We May Lose Our Children — French General’s Stark Warning For A Europe Facing Russian Aggression

-Analysis-

PARIS — There is a clear link between three recent developments concerning Russia and Ukraine. First, on Wednesday, the French Defense Chief of Staff, General Fabien Mandon, sent shockwaves across the country by saying that France must “accept the loss of its children” in the war. Then, this week, a railway line in Poland was sabotaged, an act the Warsaw government has attributed to Russia. Finally, there is the new Russian-American plan for Ukraine, rejected by both the Ukrainians and Europeans because it amounts to a demand for surrender.

Still, it’s hard to draw precise conclusions from these events. Why did General Mandon make this statement now, and why did he do so in front of the Congress of Mayors of France, the elected officials closest to the public? Is this a way of preparing the population for a war that may be approaching? The uproar sparked by his remarks deserves a response.

We should also look back at the statements made by the last two heads of the French armed forces, General Thierry Burkhard and General Mandon, to see that they have been sending the same message for some time. “We must prepare for a high-intensity war, because that is the best way to avoid one,” General Burkhard said just before leaving his position last summer. His successor used harsher words, but expressed the same idea.

Europe is unprepared

This message comes from military leaders who know that deterrence only works if a country is prepared, and if its opponent believes it. But France, like other European states, is far from credible in Vladimir Putin’s eyes. Just as the Russian president believed he could take Ukraine in a matter of days, he may just as easily conclude that Europeans are not able to resist, especially if the United States steps back.

Is war imminent? Certainly not, but the reality, as the Poles said this week after the railway sabotage, is that “Europe is not at war, but it is no longer entirely at peace.” The signs are there, from drone overflights to the constant information warfare.

If, in the coming years Russia decides to test Europe, it will be too late to prepare.

Mandon’s comments are not a call to go to war with Russia, but a call to be ready if, in the coming years, Russia decides to test Europe. At that point, it will be too late to prepare.

Coalition of willing’s veto

The Russian-American plan is the third piece of the puzzle. Donald Trump has not abandoned his desire for an understanding with Putin, despite the failure of his previous attempts. The result is a plan that strongly favors the Kremlin’s ambitions: granting Russia territories it has not captured, halving the Ukrainian army, and excluding foreign troops from guaranteeing Ukraine’s security after a ceasefire.

Neither Kyiv nor the member states of the Coalition of the Willing, an alliance coordinated by France and the United Kingdom, will accept this plan, which lays the groundwork for future wars. Those who believe that only Ukraine is concerned are taking a dangerous gamble with Europe’s security in the years ahead.

If this confrontation continues, it would be irresponsible for Europeans not to take responsibility for their own defense, given Russian aggression and the risk of an American pullback. This has a cost, which General Mandon stated bluntly to the French nation.