-Analysis-
TOKYO — North Korean state propaganda outlets revealed on Tuesday that Kim Jong-un has just ratified a new defense pact with Russia. The agreement, which he had negotiated in June during Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang, was formally transformed “into a decree by the President of State Affairs,” according to the official Korean Central News Agency.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
Russian lawmakers had unanimously ratified this text last week before it was endorsed by Vladimir Putin, who celebrated a “historic” rapprochement between Moscow and Pyongyang.
The treaty requires both states to provide “immediate” military assistance in the event of an attack against the other and to cooperate in undermining Western sanctions imposed on their regimes.
“This is a reactivation of the security treaty that bound them during the Cold War, but this time it is North Korea coming to Russia’s aid,” says Victor Cha of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Boosting leverage with the U.S.
Running low on ammunition, Russia is now purchasing large quantities of artillery shells from its North Korean partner, as well as rockets and short-range missiles. Since October, the Russian army has also incorporated several thousand North Korean soldiers into its ranks.
This is an unprecedented level of commitment for Kim Jong-un
South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence services estimate that 11,000 North Korean troops have been deployed in recent days near the front line, particularly around Kursk, the Russian region where Kyiv’s forces made a stunning cross-border incursion earlier this year.
“This is an unprecedented level of commitment for Kim Jong-un,” observes Rachel Minyoung Lee from the Stimson Center. “He is positioning himself as a major player, working closely with the Russians to create an alternative world order, an anti-American and anti-Western world order.”
After decades of attempting, particularly during Donald Trump’s first presidency, to normalize its relationship with Washington by offering the vague promise of denuclearizing its military arsenal, the North Korean dictatorship has decided to fundamentally adjust its foreign policy. A U.S.-centered approach is now deemed ineffective for the regime’s survival.
Western powers at a loss
“Of course, Pyongyang wants to benefit from Russia’s economic assistance in terms of food and energy and will earn foreign currency through its arms sales and troop deployments, but this strategic partnership with Moscow also has a major diplomatic dimension,” confirms Narushige Michishita, a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. “Pyongyang aims to establish a stronger negotiating stance with the United States, South Korea, Japan, and also China.”
In the face of this rapprochement between Moscow and Pyongyang, Western powers appear at a loss. “We lack effective tools to address this issue,” acknowledges Victor Cha.
The foreign policy analyst believes the United States should strengthen its alliance with South Korea and Japan, while Europe can potentially become more directly involved in the North Korean issue once its soldiers are on Ukrainian territory.
“For a long time, Europe seemed to adopt a fairly neutral approach toward Pyongyang,” he concludes. “Several countries even maintained cultural and diplomatic ties with the North. But when North Korean soldiers start killing Europeans, things might change.”
