–Analysis–
PARIS — It was an election whose stakes went far beyond the borders of Romania, and its modest population of 19 million. U.S. President Donald Trump had gotten involved, as had Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban — and the rest of Europe awaited the outcome of the second round of the Romanian presidential election with trepidation, judging the election as a vital test for the continent.
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In the end, the clear victory of the liberal and pro-European candidate Nicusor Dan, with 54% of the vote, over the far-right candidate George Simion, who was well ahead in the first round, amounts to a political miracle. In a fashion inspired by Donald Trump in 2020, accusations of fraud began as soon as last night, but Romania has avoided a high-risk political adventure.
The Romanian voters’ sudden turnaround prevented the country from tipping over into a virulent nationalist, anti-European, anti-Ukrainian extreme right that would do the bidding of Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Trump’s agenda.
Everything on paper made this result unlikely, and there will definitely be a lot to learn from what happened.
Mobilization matters
The first point to recall is that the first round of voting was cancelled five months ago: it involved the breakthrough of a totally unknown far-right candidate, Calin Georgescu, who had benefited from a TikTok campaign traced back to Moscow. The cancellation of this first round was an unprecedented act in the political history of the European Union, condemned by JD Vance, the U.S. vice-president, in his notorious Munich speech two months ago.
That left Simion, another far-right candidate, to take over, promising to appoint Georgescu, the winner of the cancelled first round, as prime minister. Simion won 41% of the vote two weeks ago, making him virtually assured of victory in the second round, given the large lead over the second-place candidate.
But the mobilization of voters made all the difference. Turnout was considerably higher Sunday, particularly among the Romanians who live abroad, and benefited the liberal candidate, Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, 55, a mathematician with a degree from a French university.
Romania has had an unfortunate political history since the fall of the Nicolae Ceausescu dictatorship 35 years ago. Corrupt rulers; a demographic decline caused by the departure of millions of young people to work in Western Europe; and a degraded information system that allows all sorts of manipulation.
As everywhere in the East, there’s also a massive gap between the big cities, which are Europe-oriented, and the smaller towns and countryside, which are more conservative and often struggling economically. Add to this a Romanian Orthodox Church receptive to Moscow’s anti-Western sirens.
This last-minute victory for a candidate who is credible in his fight against corruption and his commitment to Europe should not be taken as a sign that liberal democracy is out of the woods. Just look at the elections in Poland and Portugal, which also took place Sunday, where the far-right and populists scored well.
Extreme polarization is not a sign of a healthy democracy. It needs some real introspection to avoid making every election in Europe just as perilous.
