The Pope’s Health Feeds Succession Rumors — And Deeper Questions About The Church

Updated Dec. 4, 2023 at 6:05 p.m.

ROME — “How am I? I’m fine… I’m still alive, you know? See, I’m not dead!”

With a dose of irony and sarcasm, Pope Francis addressed those who’d paid him a visit this past week as he battled a new lung inflammation, and the antibiotic cycles and extra rest he still must stick with on strict doctors’ orders.

The Pope is dealing with a sensitive respiratory system; the distressed tracheo-bronchial tree can cause asthmatic reactions, with the breathlessness in his speech being the most obvious symptom. Tired eyes and dark circles mark his swollen face. A sense of unease and bewilderment pervades and only diminishes when the doctors restate their optimism about his general state of wellness.

“The pope’s ailments? Nothing compared to the health of the Church,” quips a priest very close to the Holy Father. “The Church is much worse off, marked by chronic ailments and seasonal illnesses.“

Declining faith

Among the first issues is undoubtedly the collapse of new priests and nuns, and the declining number of believers, causing a sort of depression in the belly of the episcopates of Europe, the birthplace of Catholicism.

Empty seminaries, semi-deserted parishes. The conferences to analyze this decades-long bleeding wound have not served to recover the antidotes and find suitable remedies. “We have lost our heart,” someone whispers. “There is no more affection, capacity for listening, or responding.”

This causes unpredictable chain effects: some, indulgent, accepting unsuitable seminarians, ultimately posing a risk if their faith wanes; others wink and yield to politics to find strength, compromising the humanitarian vision, the magnet of this pontificate. A recent example comes from Veneto, where some monsignors and high prelates have stood in the way of welcoming refugees. Is it better to get political favor (with Italy’s right-wing government) than to welcome the least fortunate?

Others, however, point out that the crisis of a decline in believers is seen solely from a Eurocentric perspective: indeed, enthusiasm from parishes in Africa and Asia is alive and well. The youth is passionate and many churches struggle to accommodate all the faithful.

But optimism cools when confronting a practical issue, namely economic support, as new believers in those parts of the world contribute less than what used to come from Europe and North America during the golden times.

North America’s conservatism

But the fever of the church’s disease comes exactly from North America’s schismatic will against Francis that the media has often emphasized. Timothy Broglio, leading the Catholic bishops of the United States, tempers as much as he can, prioritizing internal diplomatic channels in the dialogue rather than pouring everything into the media.

This conservative polarization is expected to grow.

He minimizes the significance of those ultra-conservative American Catholic leaders advocating schism, reminiscent of the time when Pope Benedict XVI had to manage the Latin-Mass traditionalist, the Lefebvrists, who remain highly critical of the pontiff to this day.

But some trends are still noteworthy. The clerical community in the U.S. is taking increasingly traditionalist positions, as reflected in a recent study from the Catholic University of America. This conservative polarization is expected to grow, influenced also by the expanding Mormon and Pentecostal realities.

The study is based on interviews with 131 bishops and more than 10,000 priests. Among those ordained since 2010, more than half consider themselves “conservative” or “very conservative,” while not a single priest ordained after 2020 defines themselves as “very progressive.”

Finally, a substantial 85% of younger priests theologically adhere to “conservative and very conservative” dogmas. This is data that must be weighed carefully, but could this reality influence the choice of U.S. cardinals in a future conclave?

First ideas of a Francis successor

The question is a symptom of another seasonal flu spreading in the Vatican, especially at a time when the reigning pope shows health problems. In the lottery of papal candidates, the odds of an Italian successor, with particular attention on the current Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, gathers broad consensus, which could mean a cooling between the two men.

Downsizing opens wounds.

Would Parolin be the happy medium between the progressive and conservative camps? It is a premature hypothesis that Pope Francis himself would dismiss with his sharp humor: “I’m not dead yet… eh…,” also because today everyone recognizes that he is firmly in control after reshaping the curial power mosaic over the past 10 years, choosing only loyalists.

Yet, even here, discontent rises because efficiency and functionalism are not enough. The downsizing already opens wounds. The trial of Cardinal Angelo Becciu and the action against the ultraconservative American Cardinal Raymond Burke represent the most visible point of an internal policy aimed at punishing those who are believed to use their privileges against the Church or to stoke disunity.

We have to await the verdict in the Becciu trial and see if Burke will indeed lose his home and salary; but certainly, even influenced every day by Pope Francis, being a good Jesuit, he does not hesitate. Neither do his trusted aides, starting with Cardinal Mauro Gambetti, the general vicar for the Vatican, who continues onward with the reforms to eliminate perks and pockets of privilege.

These are moves that increase dissatisfaction, thickening the group of papal opponents, those who complain about a rigid management of the dicasteries, without weights and counterweights.

“Let’s look forward, forward,” the pope always repeats to his collaborators. But lately, he’ll speak while holding back a cough. His influence is trivial compared to the evils accelerating the Church’s decline.