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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Battle Of Bakhmut, Why It Means More To Russia

Heavy fighting continues in Bakhmut, as Russia steps up efforts to take the besieged eastern Ukrainian city. But there is a subplot taking place between competing Russian factions that are forcing all sides to double down. And there are many more battles to come.

Photo of a group ​Ukrainian soldiers paying walking toward funeral wreaths for a solider killed in the battle of Bakhmut

Ukrainian soldiers paying tribute to a solider killed in the battle of Bakhmut

Pierre Haski

-Analysis-

In a war that lasts as long as the one now happening in Ukraine, some battles take on a dimension beyond their actual importance in the course of the conflict. The battle that has been going on for months in Bakhmut, an eastern Ukraine city now in ruins, is one.

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Capturing Bakhmut and forcing Ukrainian defenders to withdraw, which Moscow has clearly announced as its next target, has become more of a symbolic objective than a strategic one.


For both sides, the price of the fighting in Bakhmut is immense. No one can say yet how this battle will affect the rest of the war.


An internal Russian clash

Hundreds, maybe thousands of people have died for the control of Bakhmut. We will probably never know the exact number, which is kept secret by both sides. The city is totally destroyed, without a single building spared.

Why has this city become so significant? There are two wars in one. The first pits Ukrainian defenders against Russian invaders, while in the second, the Wagner militia faces off against the regular Russian army — Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin against Valery Gerasimov, chief of staff of the Russian armed forces.

In Bakhmut, Wagner's men are on the front line, dying to gain just a few meters. A Ukrainian soldier told The Guardian he had seen drone images of Wagner soldiers passing piles of bodies as they advanced towards Ukrainian lines.

Photo of Ukrainian soldiers preparing a tank for combat in the fronlines of Bakhmut

Ukrainian soldiers prepare a tank for combat in the fronlines of Bakhmut

Celestino Arce Lavin/ZUMA

Kremlin's silence

In the struggle for influence in Moscow, Prigozhin wants to prove his usefulness. He has been sharing surprising videos, including on Saturday night when he said that if Wagner evacuated from Bakhmut, the Russian front would collapse.

This statement becomes all the more surprising given the Russian claim that city is nearly encircled. This is implicitly confirmed by the fact that Ukrainian defenders destroyed Bakhmut's bridges after bringing heavy weaponry into the city.

The real challenge will be the next offensives and counter-offensives.

So why does Prigozhin speak as if defeat is imminent? He says his forces are not receiving the ammunition they need, implicitly accusing Gerasimov. This internal rivalry is unprecedented in wartime, as is the silence of the Kremlin.

Overblown strategic significance

Ukraine hopes to minimize the significance of the possible fall of Bakhmut, which is hard to believe given the lives and energy lost defending the city. Russia, on the other hand, will certainly exaggerate its significance — desperately needing to succeed after numerous failures, including the catastrophic defeat in February in Vuhledar, southern Ukraine.

But this may not be the most important development to watch. The real challenge will be the next offensives and counter-offensives until the end of summer. These aren't battles with symbolic stakes, but real tests of each side's ability to break through enemy lines and upset the balance of power.

No one knows yet where the Ukrainians will counterattack, but there is no doubt that it will come. The war will not be decided in Bakhmut.

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Society

Why Poland's Draconian Anti-Abortion Laws May Get Even Crueler

Poland has some of the most restrictive abortion laws in Europe. Several parties vying in national elections on Oct. 15 are competing for conservative Catholic voters by promising new laws that could put women's lives at risk.

Photograph of a woman with her lower face covered holding a red lightning bolt - the symbol of the Women's Strike - during the demonstration outside Kaczynski's house.

November 28, 2022, Warsaw, Poland: A protester holds a red lightning bolt - the symbol of the Women's Strike - during the demonstration outside Kaczynski's house.

Attila Husejnow/ZUMA
Katarzyna Skiba

-Analysis-

In 2020, Poland was rocked by mass protests when the country’s Constitutional Tribunal declared abortions in the case of severe fetal illness or deformity illegal. This was one of only three exceptions to Poland’s ban on abortions, which now only applies in cases of sexual assault or when the life of the mother is at risk.

Since the 2020 ruling, several women have filed complaints to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) after giving birth to children with severe fetal abnormalities, many of whom do not survive long after birth. One woman working at John Paul II hospital in the Southern Polish town of Nowy Targ told Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza that a patient was forced to give birth to a child suffering from acrania a lethal disorder where infants are born without a skull.

However, even in cases where abortion is technically legal, hospitals and medical professionals in Poland still often refuse to perform the procedure, citing moral objections.

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