-Analysis-
KYIV — Starting in May or June, we may see negotiations for a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement that appear genuine. But everything happening before mid-to-late April will likely be mere consultations with little substance. We can expect a lot of conflicting information, statements, rumors and political maneuvers. Patience and emotional resilience will be essential.
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But when and if negotiations do begin, their trajectory could resemble the post-World War II relations between Japan and the Soviet Union. That conflict was never formally concluded, and the territorial dispute remains unresolved to this day.
Yes, a peace treaty was never signed, and the dispute over the Kuril Islands has persisted for more than 70 years.
So that begs the question if Russia’s war against Ukraine could follow a similar path? There are no guarantees, but historical precedents allow us to outline possible parallels.
Japan still wants its islands
In the case of Japan, the Cairo Declaration (1943) and the Potsdam Declaration (1945) determined that Japan must lose the territories it had conquered. Then several agreements were attempted:
• The San Francisco Peace Treaty (1951): Japan officially renounced its claims to the Kuril Islands and South Sakhalin. But the Soviet Union did not sign the treaty, and the document did not specify to whom these territories would be transferred.
• Soviet-Japanese Declaration (1956): The USSR agreed to return the Habomai and Shikotan islands to Japan after signing a peace treaty. But the treaty was never concluded, and later, the Soviet Union withdrew its offer.
In the absence of a deal, since the 1990s, Japan has continued to insist on the return of four islands. Russia acknowledges the issue but refuses to cede sovereignty. In 2022, Moscow completely suspended negotiations in response to Japan’s sanctions over the war in Ukraine. Today, the current situation is as follows:
• The Kuril Islands are fully controlled by Russia, which Japan considers an illegal occupation.
• Russia is actively integrating these territories by building military bases and launching economic projects.
• Formally, a state of war between Japan and Russia still exists due to the absence of a peace treaty.
What’s different about Ukraine
Russia will undoubtedly attempt to solidify its hold on occupied Ukrainian territories through military presence, legal manipulations and political pressure. Much like in the case of the Kuril Islands, the Kremlin could avoid real resolution for years, maintaining the status quo.
Meanwhile, Ukraine — like Japan — will refuse to recognize the loss of its land and will continue fighting for its return through diplomatic, political, and, if possible, military means.
Yet there is a fundamental difference: Ukraine is currently fighting and with significant international support. That makes a “frozen conflict” scenario far less predictable. The situation will depend on battlefield developments, Western military aid, sanctions pressure, and Russia’s economic exhaustion.
Stagnation scenario
Predicting the outcome of this war is difficult. But one thing is clear: There will be no quick resolution. The final conclusion for both Ukrainians and those still living in the illusion of security is this: In today’s world, no nation-state can fully guarantee its own safety. The global order offers only two models: Empire or Alliance.
Which will prove more effective? The question remains open — especially considering that alliances between empires have historically led to global wars.
Japan has yet to reclaim its lost territories, though it maintains a legal stance that does not recognize their occupation. Ukraine and Japan share the same aggressor.
What lessons can we, as Ukrainians, draw from Japan’s experience?
