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TOPIC: kremlin

Russia

How The Russian Orthodox Church Has Become A Willing Pawn In Putin's War

Since the start of Russia's war in Ukraine, the Russian Orthodox Church has fully supported the Kremlin. Priests or members of the church that disagree with this politicization and militarization of the church face heavy consequences such as removal.

Since March 2022, the Russian Orthodox Church has increasingly fallen in line with militarization efforts. Meanwhile, initial hopes that Orthodox Kyiv would welcome the invasion of Ukraine with open arms — hanging portraits of Moscow Patriarch Kirill and ringing bells — were quickly dashed.

As a result, Kirill adopted an increasingly hard line. He required priests to include a prayer for the "victory of Holy Russia" and threatened harsh consequences for those who used the word "peace" instead of "victory" in their prayers, calling them pacifist heretics.

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Wagner Is Dead, Long Live Wagner! How Putin Plans To Push Deeper Into Africa, Post-Prigozhin

Wagner PMC has built up a powerful network on the African continent. It's one of the mercenary group's greatest assets — and now, a Kremlin takeover of Wagner could even strengthen its influence in Africa, including through the recent coups d'état in Niger and Gabon.

-Analysis-

"Prigozhin’s last thought was ‘Putin!’'’ That's how Boris Johnson imagines what was going through the mind of mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin during the 30-second plunge to the earth in his private jet.

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“I cannot think of another example of such ostentatious and uninhibited savagery by a world leader — not in our lifetimes," added the former British Prime Minister in an article in the Daily Mail.

After Prigozhin's death, the future of the Wagner group remains unclear. Renamed, or reshaped and brought back into line, it's a safe bet that, in one form or another, it will survive the elimination of its founders. Worse still, it may even emerge with its influence in Africa strengthened.

This is the thesis of the ambitious investigation, based on the work of the collective All Eyes On Wagner,that investigative journalists Lou Osborn and Dimitri Zufferey are about to publish with French group Editions du Faubourg.

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Vladimir Putin, And The Cruel Art Of Disposing Of Your Enemies

Yevgeny Prigozhin is gone, two months to the day of his aborted insurrection against the Russian military. The Wagner Group chief was likely killed in a plane crash on orders from the Kremlin. A piece written after Wagner's coup offers a reminder that Russia is in the hands of a man obsessed with control, who wields his cowardice as a weapon.

This article was updated Aug. 24, 2023 at 5:40 p.m.

-Analysis-

What did Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin really want two months ago when he launched then aborted an apparent coup attempt?

At most, perhaps, Prigozhin's goal was to capture Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu in Rostov-on-Don, and force him to write a letter of resignation or parade him around the southern city like a circus bear.

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But in the end, the Wagner boss got scared. He got scared of how far he had gone. It's one thing to launch a coup; it's another to wield real power. What would he do with it? Was he aiming to become president of Russia? No, with his prison background, this would have been impossible, even in a country like Russia, and he understood this.

What forced Prigozhin to act urgently back in June was the looming deadline of July 1, the date by which the mercenaries, according to the Russian authorities, had to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry. After Prigozhin was banned from recruiting prisoners, he began to run out of personnel. The 25,000 soldiers he claims would be only enough for another two months at that rate.

And that was it. The coup was over — but apparently not forgotten. Prigozhin is now presumed death after his plane crashed outside of Moscow late on Wednesday. Whether Putin was his ultimate nemesis two months, the Wagner chief paid the ultimate price for even leaving a trace of ambiguity.

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Prigozhin’s Death, A Perfect Consolidation Of Power For Vladimir Putin

Two months after his failed coup, the Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has reportedly died on Wednesday in a plane crash. Many questions remain unanswered, but one thing is for sure: we know who is bound to benefit the most.

-Analysis-

MOSCOWYevgeny Prigozhin's days were numbered. Exactly two months after his iconic "rebellion," a spectacular but futile insurrection that humiliated and weakened Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, the 62-year-old paramilitary leader Wagner died on Aug. 23 in a plane crash that looks quite clearly like an assassination.

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Neither the Kremlin nor any other Russian political authority has officially confirmed it, but the state media made it pretty clear, right after the downing of the Embraer Legacy private jet that was scheduled to fly from Moscow to St. Petersburg.

According to the national air transport agency, on board the private jet that crashed near the village of Kuzhenkino in the Tver region, leaving no survivors, was the former friend and personal chef who Putin had called a “traitor” on June 24, and who had since been living on borrowed time, flying back and forth to Russia despite his pariah status.

" Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner group, hero of Russia and true patriot of his homeland, was killed as a result of the actions of traitors to Russia. But even in hell, he'll be the best!” reacted his supporters on Grey Zone, a Telegram channel reputedly close to Wagner on social media.

Putin so far has not commented on the apparent death of his former ally. And yet...

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Cameron Manley

How The Moscow Drone Attacks Are Quietly Targeting Putin's Inner Circle

Drone air attacks continue in Russia's capital, with evidence that Ukraine has figured out how to target certain buildings belonging to Vladimir Putin's entourage. It's a clear message from Kyiv.

Another drone attack rocked central Moscow on Wednesday — and again the significance of Ukraine striking anywhere in the Russian capital should not be underestimated. It’s the sixth attack of its kind since July 30. Yet the importance of the summer barrage may go even further: the target Wednesday was a building known to belong to an important member of the entourage of President Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin appears to want to downplay and obfuscate information about the actual targets. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported no casualties,but said that several windows had been blown in on a neighboring five-story building. The Defense Ministry said the drone had been suppressed by electronic warfare and collided with the building after losing control.

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Economy
Benjamin Quénelle

"Stay Or Go" — The Blunt Message In Russia's State Takeover Of Danone And Carlsberg

The French dairy group Danone and Denmark's Carlsberg brewer were in talks with buyers to limit their financial losses in Russia. But the Kremlin's sudden "temporary" takeover of the two companies Sunday night (involving the seizure of Danone by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov's "favorite" nephew) may in fact be a sign that business is over once and for all for Western subsidiaries that have pulled out since the war began.

This article has been updated on July 20, 2023 at 11:45 a.m. CET with new developments

-Analysis-

MOSCOW — For months, French dairy group Danone had been negotiating behind the scenes in Moscow with potential buyers for its Russian activities. But on the evening of Sunday, July 16, the Kremlin cut short all talks, as President Vladimir Putin suddenly decided — by decree — to transfer to Rosimushestvo, the state holding agency, most of the Russian assets of both Danone and Danish brewer Carlsberg.

It was, in other words, a takeover by the Russian state.

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The two long-established, successful European-based multinational consumer groups had announced their intention to leave Russia last year. They hoped to choose their buyer — and limit their financial losses. Now, the placement of their assets under the control of the state agency, although officially "temporary," de facto further limits their room for maneuver.

"We learned about the decree like everyone else on Sunday evening, without any warning," says a source close to the French dairy giant's negotiations, who hopes there's still room for future talks.

But a European businessman involved in Moscow's dealings with Western companies trying to leave Russia warns that the Kremlin may be shifting its strategy.

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In The News
Yannick Champion-Osselin, Valeria Berghinz, Chloé Touchard and Anne-Sophie Goninet

New Crimea Bridge Attack, Iran’s Morality Police Returns, Colosseum Defaced Again

👋 Hay!*

Welcome to Monday, where Ukraine claims responsibility for a new attack on Crimea bridge, Iran’s infamous “morality police” are back on the streets, and Rome’s Colosseum is defaced, again. Meanwhile, Alfred Hackensberger in German daily Die Welt looks at how the seemingly slow progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive may actually be all part of the plan.

[*Aklan, Philippines]

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In The News
Katarzyna Skiba, Michelle Courtois and Marine Béguin

Putin On Wagner, Hollywood On Strike, Pets On Stage

👋 Сәлем*

Welcome to Friday, where Vladimir Putin has harsh words for the Wagner Group, Hollywood actors join screenwriters on the picket line and a dramatic video emerges of the largest Burmese python ever captured. We also look at the social media trend of “deinfluencers” who give advice to their followers about what not to buy.

[*Salem - Kazakh]

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Russia
Benjamin Quénelle

Why The Kremlin Is Quietly Satisfied With The NATO Summit Outcome

The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO has been postponed. Vladimir Putin will be pleased, knowing that Russia's best hope is for a long war.

-Analysis-

MOSCOW — Ahead of the recent NATO Summit in Vilnius, Moscow had warned the West that the Kremlin would be following this "anti-Russian" meeting "very closely." True to form, Russia responded with arms all week: Since Monday, its army has launched a series of nightly drone attacks on Kyiv.

The Ukrainian capital is less than 600 kilometers from Vilnius, Lithuania, a former Soviet Republic where NATO heads of state met Tuesday and Wednesday. On the military front, Russian troops claim to have broken through 1.5 kilometers deep in eastern Ukraine in recent days.

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When it comes to diplomacy, 17 months after launching the "special military operation" against its neighbor, the Kremlin can take heart from the summit's conclusions.

"At first sight, this is good news for [Russia]," says Andrei Kortounov of the Russian Council, a Russian think tank on international issues. "All options remain open, even if it doesn't make [Putin's] favorite solution, Ukrainian neutrality, any more realistic."

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Article 5 Or G7? Why Ukraine Is Marginally Stronger After Vilnius

After a rocky start, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had reason to be happy after this week's NATO summit. The military bloc pledged fast-tracked membership once the war is over, as well as military support from the entire G7 block for the duration of the conflict.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Angry on Tuesday, happy on Wednesday. Can the outcome of the Vilnius NATO Summit be measured by the changing mood of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky? That would be a bit reductive, but it does give an idea of the dramatic nature of major international meetings, where nothing is over until the final clap.

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On his arrival in Vilnius on Tuesday, President Zelensky had some very harsh words for the NATO leaders who seemed to be closing the door on him, even speaking of a "lack of respect." In the Kremlin, this performance must have been followed with delight.

But at the end of the day, Ukraine certainly emerged from the summit stronger than ever, even though it is still not a member of NATO. This may seem paradoxical, but there are good reasons why.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Yuri Fedorov

Why Negotiating With Russia Would Be A Disaster For Ukraine — And The World

A month into Ukraine's counteroffensive, claims that it has failed are wildly premature. Even more troubling are the steady whispers that Kyiv must sit down with Russia to negotiate. But it's clearer than ever that only complete Ukrainian victory can bring lasting peace.

-OpEd-

KYIV — "The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it," George Orwell once remarked.

We're reminded of those words recently as we hear more and more calls for negotiations. Since mid-June, about 10 to 12 days after the Ukrainian counteroffensive began, a number of Western political scientists and journalists, claiming to cite anonymous government sources, have argued that the Ukrainian offensive is proceeding too slowly. If it continues to stall, they say, the West will reduce or completely withdraw support from Ukraine, forcing Kyiv to agree to a ceasefire and enter into negotiations with Russia.

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American political scientist Graham Allison argues that if Ukraine does not seize the chance presented by the recent Wagner coup “to break the stasis that governs the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, we will enter a very different chapter in this conflict... Many of Ukraine’s supporters in Europe and even in the United States will join the Global South’s chorus calling for both sides to stop the killing and begin serious negotiations about a cease-fire."

Russian voices, including those who consider themselves in opposition to the current regime, echo the Western skeptics.

The reasoning behind this type of thinking is straightforward: if the Ukrainian Armed Forces were unable to achieve immediate success by overpowering the enemy's defenses, penetrating operational territory, and capturing Melitopol and Mariupol in one decisive strike, it would be more prudent to avoid sacrificing the lives of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers.

Instead, it would be preferable to engage in diplomatic negotiations. This outcome would please activists from the Global South, left-wing pacifists, and certain circles in Western countries who may desire to maintain Russia's presence, possibly by replacing Putin with a more acceptable dictator.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Benjamin Quénelle

Navalny Now: What The Wagner Coup Attempt Means For Putin's Jailed Enemy No. 1

From the depths of his prison cell, President Putin’s best-known opponent, Alexei Navalny, appears to have a plan for how to turn Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed uprising into new momentum for his cause for democracy and regime change in Moscow.

-Analysis-

MOSCOW — "We no longer want our country to live with corruption, lies and bureaucracy," said Yevgeny Prigozhin, the man who dared to challenge the president who has been in power for almost a quarter of a century.

Prigozhin's crude words and offensive tone were in stark contrast to the propaganda of public television. A master in direct communication, the founder of the Wagner Group mercenaries broadcast his shocking words over social media.

Taken by surprise, Vladimir Putin called for national unity and condemned this “political adventurer.” But he never mentioned his name. For a few hours on June 24, the man who had suddenly become the main anti-Kremlin opponent succeeded in shaking the regime. It was an unexpected role for Prigozhin, Putin's "cook" turned "traitorous putschist.”

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