💡 SPOTLIGHT
The Nagorno-Karabakh debacle: Bad news for Putin or set up for a coup in Armenia?
It's been a whirlwind 24 hours in the Armenian enclave, whose sudden surrender is reshaping the power dynamics in the volatile Caucasus region, leaving lingering questions about the future of a region long under the Russian sphere of influence.
It happened quickly, much faster than anyone could have imagined. It took the Azerbaijani army just 24 hours to force the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh to surrender. The fighting, which claimed about 100 lives, ended Wednesday when the leaders of the breakaway region accepted Baku's conditions.
Thus ends the self-proclaimed "Republic of Artsakh" — the name that the separatists gave to Nagorno-Karabakh.
How can we explain such a speedy defeat, given that this crisis has been going on for nearly three decades and has already triggered two high-intensity wars, in 1994 and 2020? The answer is simple: the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh backed themselves into a corner.
Two major actors in this geopolitical and humanitarian tragedy played a key role in this defeat: the Republic of Armenia and Russia. From the beginning of the fighting, Armenia made it clear that it would not intervene, sealing the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan knew that coming to the rescue of the Armenians at the helm of the enclave meant risking war spilling onto its own territory — a war waged by the Azerbaijani army, much more powerful than Armenian forces. To save Armenia, he therefore had to sacrifice Nagorno-Karabakh.
As for Russia, it remained passive, whether as a result of strategic calculation or because it is otherwise occupied on the Ukraine front. This can be seen as a sign of Moscow's diminishing influence in the Caucasus region, where other powers like Turkey (a vocal supporter of Azerbaijan) are asserting themselves.
Russia has a military base in Armenia, and about 2,000 troops deployed in the Nagorno-Karabakh area under a previous peace agreement. These troops did not intervene, not even as peacekeepers, but they still facilitated yesterday's ceasefire, leading to the de facto surrender of the separatist enclave.
The Kremlin's actions are also undoubtedly influenced by its strong hostility toward Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018 in the wake of one of those "color revolutions" that Vladimir Putin despises so much. The liberal Pashinyan developed friendly relationships with Western countries and is viewed very unfavorably in Moscow.
Yesterday, the head of the Russian propaganda channel RT, Margaret Simonyan, stated that Russia owed nothing to Armenia and reused an insult that had been thrown at Nikol Pashinyan, calling him a "bald Judas."
The full meaning of the Azerbaijani victory remains to be seen. A new era begins Thursday as negotiations open between the government in Stepanakert and Baku representatives.
On the agenda: the disarmament of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, as well as its reintegration into Azerbaijan. Under what conditions, with what future for its Armenian population, and with what guarantees? These are weighty questions, with the looming specter of ethnic cleansing.
But there may be more geopolitical changes ahead. Pashinyan's hold on power in Yerevan is not a given, as he faces the anger of a portion of the public pronged by pro-Moscow networks. A coup cannot be ruled out.
Last but not least, Russia's influence in the region is being challenged in this new balance of power imposed by the Azerbaijani army. These 24 hours of fighting have indeed significantly reshuffled the cards in the Caucasus.
— Pierre Haski / France Inter
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• Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks begin: Delegations from Azerbaijan and Armenia will start peace talks on Thursday in the Azeri city of Yevlakh after the warring sides reached a ceasefire agreement to end the fighting in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku has claimed it has regained control over the territory one day after launching its “anti-terrorist” operation which reportedly left 200 people dead. Meanwhile, thousands of protesters gathered in Armenia’s capital Yerevan on Wednesday to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and denounce the government's failure to support Armenian separatists in the region.
• India suspends visas for Canadians in escalating diplomatic row: India’s visa processing center in Canada has suspended services until further notice citing “operational reasons” amid a growing rift between the two countries over the killing of a Sikh leader on Canadian soil. This comes one day after India warned its citizens against visiting parts of Canada because of “politically condoned hate crimes and criminal violence.”
• Syria's Assad in China for first time in 20 years: Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has landed in the Chinese eastern city of Hangzhou on Thursday, his first official trip to China since 2004, as the leader seeks financial support to help rebuild his country and end diplomatic isolation amid Western sanctions. Read more about Assad’s return to the world stage.
• U.S. allows half million Venezuelans in country to work legally: The Biden administration announced it will grant temporary deportation relief and access to work permits to nearly half a million Venezuelans already in the U.S., as the country grapples with growing numbers of people fleeing Venezuela and elsewhere.
• Japan's Toshiba set to go private after 74 years: Toshiba, one of Japan's oldest and biggest firms, announced a $14 billion deal with a group of investors had ended in success, paving the way for the embattled electronics conglomerate to end its 74-year history as a publicly traded company. The consortium led by private equity firm Japan Industrial Partners has purchased 78.65% of Toshiba’s shares.
• Sardinia turns to Kyrgyz shepherds to revive farming tradition: The local branch of the national farmers' union in Italy’s Sardinia has struck a deal with the Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Labor to bring about 100 Kyrgyz shepherds and their families to their island, in an effort to maintain its declining farming tradition.
Dutch daily NRC Handelsblad pays tribute to Erwin Olaf on its front page, the renowned Dutch photographer who died unexpectedly at age 64. His death came just a few weeks after he had a lung transplant. Olaf was known for his portraits, which were considered provocative and erotic, often including nudity. A vocal LGBTQ+ activist, he photographed marginalized people, to “celebrate diversity in all its forms.”
$11.6 billion
Morocco’s King Mohammed VI has said that the country will spend 120 billion dirhams ($11.6 billion) to rebuild and restore the regions destroyed by the devastating Sep. 8 earthquake. The funds will be used for temporary shelter, reconstruction of homes and restoration of infrastructure over a five-year period, and will also be used to support the 4.2 million people in provinces most impacted by the earthquake. The earthquake destroyed major infrastructure and more than 50,000 homes in the High Atlas Mountains. Morocco has received $700 millions in donations so far, and plans to make up the deficit using their government funds, international aid and continued donations.
The Cuban professionals sent abroad to work, never to return
Noel, a Cuban engineer who had to emigrate to the faraway island of Saint Lucia, tells about the Cuban government's systematic intimidation techniques and coercion of its professionals abroad. He now knows he can never go back to his native island — lest he should never be allowed to leave Cuba again, reports Laura Rique Valero for independent multimedia platform elTOQUE.
🇨🇺 In 2020, Noel was offered a two-to-three-year employment contract on a volcanic island in the Caribbean, some 2,000 kilometers from Cuba. The family needed the money. What came next was never in the plans. Unlike other Cuban workers on the island, Noel felt comfortable because he had an apartment to himself. Still, some rules had bothered him since the beginning. Above all, workers had to ask for permission and inform the head of the mission every time they were going to leave the house, partly for security, but also for control.
💼 Everything went more or less well until in June 2021, when Noel was told that his contract was going to end. They gave him a week's notice. He would complete just a year of work, when initially they had promised him two to three. That was not in his plans, and he had not saved enough. This was happening amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, and there were no regular flights to Cuba. Noel decided to stay in Saint Lucia, filled with fear and stress. Included in the disciplinary regulation for Cuban workers is the obligation to return to Cuba at the end of the mission.
❌ Under the regulations, being expelled from a mission and returned to Cuba is the most severe disciplinary measure available. The Cuban government has also prohibited entry to Cuba for up to eight years for those who leave an official mission, although this is not written into the law. By prohibiting the entry to Cuba of nationals who abandon the mission or do not wish to return to the island, the government has created a strategy of stigmatization and disqualification. "Deserters", they call them. The engineer knew that if he returned, they would not let him leave Cuba again.
➡️ Read more on Worldcrunch.com
Afera wizowa
Officials working at Poland’s Foreign Ministry and at the Polish consular service are being accused of corruption linked to the granting of visas, in what is being referred to as a cash-for-visa scandal (Afera wizowa in Polish, literally “the visa affair”). According to allegations leveled by the opposition, thousands of work visas for migrants were issued without proper checks in exchange for money. Brussels has asked Poland’s Law and Justice party for "clarifications", in what could turn to be a serious blow for the ruling party ahead of Oct. 15 national elections.
📸 PHOTO DU JOUR
King Charles III and French President Emmanuel Macron take part in a ceremony of Remembrance and wreath laying at the Arc de Triomphe in Paris. The British monarch is on his first visit to France with Queen Camilla — Photo: Parsons Media/ZUMA
✍️ Newsletter by Anne-Sophie Goninet, Michelle Courtois and Bertrand Hauger
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