Updated Oct. 2, 2024 at 11:25 a.m.*
-Analysis-
Israel on Wednesday vowed to retaliate for a barrage of 180 Iranian missiles fired at the Jewish State, as the Middle East stands on the verge of a region-wide war.
The Iranian attacks came after Tehran lost two of its most important partners and proxies in the Middle East: Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. It has repeatedly alluded to exacting vengeance, but has yet to match its words with any action comparable to the scope of Israel’s punitive operations in Gaza and Lebanon.
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Some observers pointed out Tehran’s fears of unforeseen consequences of the “war trap,” as Israeli leaders had warned Tehran that Israel would strike back if Iran hits it. Yet that eventually was outweighed by the regime’s need to respond to the growing ire of its own politicians and people for not acting.
The Tuesday evening Iranian missile attack directed at Israel capped several days of rising rhetoric from hardline Iranian politicians.
Certain legislators, speaking at a parliamentary session on Sept. 29, were particularly critical of any “hesitancy.” Ahmad Rastineh, a member of parliament’s Culture Committee, said the fruit of Nasrallah’s “blood” would be Israel’s destruction, adding “people on the street are asking, what happened to avenging Haniyeh’s blood.”
That, Rastineh said, was a matter of “national pride and defense.”
No place for fear
Ismail Husseini, a member of parliament’s Energy Committee, said Iran had a duty to “give maximum support to the group harming Israel’s interests” and caution over a possible war was “unacceptable.”
The cost of any compromise, he said, would be “considerably higher than resistance.” He chided unspecified elements for providing the regime with “mistaken analyses” impeding it from taking “effective and painful” measures against Israel.
If Tehran hits hard, it may receive an even bigger punch in the mouth.
Husseini urged Iran’s generals to be “bold,” apparently oblivious to the fact that if they could have, they already would have “boldly” inflicted the pain he was calling for.
Another legislator, Musa Musavi, said the war equation is “very simple: Strike or they’ll strike you.” He, too, was forgetting that if Tehran hits hard, it may receive an even bigger “punch in the mouth” — to use its own revolutionary vocabulary.
Musavi suggested that the regime is in a regional bind because it failed to avenge the 2020 killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. Talk of a “war trap” is nonsense, he said, when “we’re precisely already in the middle of a war.”
What Khamenei wants
It wasn’t clear to whom these fiery remarks were directed, as the ultimate decision-maker on matters of war is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who agencies reported was moved to a safe house after Nasrallah’s killing.
The Qom representative Mohammad Manan Raisi said Khamenei’s order to avenge Haniyeh’s death had yet to be carried out two months on — as if someone had refused to comply. He observed that Khamenei “said 10 years ago, if they strike us once, they’ll get 10 [blows] in return,” which he added made Iran’s caution and refusal to actively defend Hezbollah, inexcusable.
In sending his condolences to the Lebanese for Nasrallah, Khamenei said nothing about revenge.
Such comments should be qualified as theatrics; all officials in Iran know that nothing is done without Khamenei’s approval. So if he vowed revenge but nothing was done, it is because he did not issue a specific order.
And yet, Iran’s regime had to respond to Israel’s advances if it isn’t to lose face with its regional flock. Manan Raisi warned that the regime’s credibility at home and abroad would “slowly melt.”
Israel’s recent actions and the level of its violence may well have unnerved Tehran. Indeed, in sending his condolences to the Lebanese for Nasrallah’s death, Khamenei said nothing about revenge. An ugly reality may have finally been understood: Israel’s arm is long, and when it says “enough is enough,” it means it. This means that now it’s just a matter of time to see Israel’s response to Tuesday’s attack from Tehran.
Originally published Oct. 1, 2024, this article was updated with new details about the Iranian attack, Israel’s vow to retaliate, as well as enriched media.
